Brasileiro Série A, Red Bull Bragantino's big clash vs Palmeiras with too much stoppage time just finished,
What an excellent modeling clash that was, but I'm disappointed that Pinny disappeared when customers needed them and only ISN had accepted large sums at reasonable prices and some other agencies were offering large sums but at sub-optimal odds….
South American soccer betting!
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 27
Post
Re: South American soccer betting!
Weird things have been happening in South America lately, provided that you don't just target the top-notch team markets.
(1) Days ago, let's say that a well-known Asian Sharp Minotaur of the past suddenly reappeared from the labyrinth many hours before the start of the clash of weak teams in one of the elite Men's Leagues, offering better odds and acceptable limits than the best modern Sharps. That sudden value offer (beyond my calculated probabilities) didn't last long and I spotted it and caught it by chance, maybe they balanced their lines for a few moments or something.
(2) On the other hand, some well-known Softs didn't manage adequately their live lines at all, only added some margin!
For example, Atlético Belgrano Ladies vs Newell's OB Ladies finished a few minutes ago, here is the link:
youtube.com/watch?v=aZzXalak9zMs
and provided that somehow the agencies have decided that AH(-0.75) should be among the leading offered lines today, and also taking in mind that lately both the Belgrano Ladies & Newell's Ladies teams had oscillating the mean level results regarding two goals distributed at all, and also plenty of additional things processed by the Model triggered the positions here, but especially Softs were weak during the match.
If you love modeling, see the link above and you'll realize exactly why their live-lines-management was out of the Logic, in addition to unusual pre-match AH odds.
(3) Others, distributed across the lower South American Divisións.
(1) Days ago, let's say that a well-known Asian Sharp Minotaur of the past suddenly reappeared from the labyrinth many hours before the start of the clash of weak teams in one of the elite Men's Leagues, offering better odds and acceptable limits than the best modern Sharps. That sudden value offer (beyond my calculated probabilities) didn't last long and I spotted it and caught it by chance, maybe they balanced their lines for a few moments or something.
(2) On the other hand, some well-known Softs didn't manage adequately their live lines at all, only added some margin!
For example, Atlético Belgrano Ladies vs Newell's OB Ladies finished a few minutes ago, here is the link:
youtube.com/watch?v=aZzXalak9zMs
and provided that somehow the agencies have decided that AH(-0.75) should be among the leading offered lines today, and also taking in mind that lately both the Belgrano Ladies & Newell's Ladies teams had oscillating the mean level results regarding two goals distributed at all, and also plenty of additional things processed by the Model triggered the positions here, but especially Softs were weak during the match.
If you love modeling, see the link above and you'll realize exactly why their live-lines-management was out of the Logic, in addition to unusual pre-match AH odds.
(3) Others, distributed across the lower South American Divisións.
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 27
Post
Re: South American soccer betting!
The "Holy 2024 Argentine Soccer" is in progress, Atlético River Plate vs Atlético Vélez Sarsfield has started at Mâs Monumental, is that game the hidden championship point for Vélez? WOW.
In the quotation marks above I mean not only the sheer sporting pleasure of the Latino fiesta on the pitch in every game but also the endless misjudgment of these Championships by the odds compilers (thank you very much!!!), I'm just dreaming of what has happened so far in 2024 in the various Argentine Men's Divisións, as well as the elite Ladies Soccer competitions, never to end.
Pretty clear market positions across the BTTS, various Corners markets, O/U, Money Line, and naturally the king markets - the main AH lines CARP vs Vélez Sarsfield today, chosen carefully by my tune-ups due to:
-- The pretty clear supremacy of CARP's corners in the most recent games, but an additional strong warning and re-estimation of a "three-Sigmas-case" when Boca Juniors simply killed CARP in terms of Corners (11:0). Why?
- On the other hand, Vélez Sarsfield's corners in such games are described by a pseudo-sinusoidal function; Why? What exactly is the composition of the Vélez Defensive Dept and why?
- When Gustavo Quinteros maintains medium-long quick passes at speed, the probability of an X-event occurring is quite high in specific cases, spotted by the Observers;
- In my opinion, Marcelo Gallardo has wasted his time outside of Argentina in 2023/24. Now the CARP resurrection is very slow.
All opponents (strong and weak) expect those solid but slow attacks through the center zone primarily, so against each opponent, the probabilities of X and Y are very well described. When Gallardo changes pace/direction in a field area, a few things happen (again pre-evaluating the opponent's defense of course);
- And so on.
Let's see what happens further in that game. At that point (1st Half), Quinteros leads the team such as during his mid-period in Colo-Colo...
Your opinions?
In the quotation marks above I mean not only the sheer sporting pleasure of the Latino fiesta on the pitch in every game but also the endless misjudgment of these Championships by the odds compilers (thank you very much!!!), I'm just dreaming of what has happened so far in 2024 in the various Argentine Men's Divisións, as well as the elite Ladies Soccer competitions, never to end.
Pretty clear market positions across the BTTS, various Corners markets, O/U, Money Line, and naturally the king markets - the main AH lines CARP vs Vélez Sarsfield today, chosen carefully by my tune-ups due to:
-- The pretty clear supremacy of CARP's corners in the most recent games, but an additional strong warning and re-estimation of a "three-Sigmas-case" when Boca Juniors simply killed CARP in terms of Corners (11:0). Why?
- On the other hand, Vélez Sarsfield's corners in such games are described by a pseudo-sinusoidal function; Why? What exactly is the composition of the Vélez Defensive Dept and why?
- When Gustavo Quinteros maintains medium-long quick passes at speed, the probability of an X-event occurring is quite high in specific cases, spotted by the Observers;
- In my opinion, Marcelo Gallardo has wasted his time outside of Argentina in 2023/24. Now the CARP resurrection is very slow.
All opponents (strong and weak) expect those solid but slow attacks through the center zone primarily, so against each opponent, the probabilities of X and Y are very well described. When Gallardo changes pace/direction in a field area, a few things happen (again pre-evaluating the opponent's defense of course);
- And so on.
Let's see what happens further in that game. At that point (1st Half), Quinteros leads the team such as during his mid-period in Colo-Colo...
Your opinions?
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 27
Post
Re: South American soccer betting!
Belgrano Ladies vs Racing Club Ladies in progress, near the end of the game,
It seems to me that after the red card for Racing Club at the end of the first half and after Belgrano's last substitutions minutes ago, Betina Soriano intends to make some unusual riskier extra moves than usual in Belgrano's home games spotted so far.
Also, I think that SBO are offering the wrong prices right now, despite the big margin.
youtube.com/watch?v=nBc6u5r2e0Q
It seems to me that after the red card for Racing Club at the end of the first half and after Belgrano's last substitutions minutes ago, Betina Soriano intends to make some unusual riskier extra moves than usual in Belgrano's home games spotted so far.
Also, I think that SBO are offering the wrong prices right now, despite the big margin.
youtube.com/watch?v=nBc6u5r2e0Q
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 27
Post
Re: South American soccer betting!
Addendum: Towards the end of the game, Betina Soriano was making much more energetic long and quick passes to Belgrano's attacking department, and she herself risked moving too close towards the forward lines, much like in her previous years as a striker. But because of this, Belgrano's midfield and defense were helpless at the very end when Racing Club scored the winning goal...
Thanks to some oddsmakers for the excellent Asian Handicap lines they gave us in the second half.
Thanks to some oddsmakers for the excellent Asian Handicap lines they gave us in the second half.