Arbusers

Brasileiro Série A, Red Bull Bragantino's big clash vs Palmeiras with too much stoppage time just finished,
What an excellent modeling clash that was, but I'm disappointed that Pinny disappeared when customers needed them and only ISN had accepted large sums at reasonable prices and some other agencies were offering large sums but at sub-optimal odds….

Weird things have been happening in South America lately, provided that you don't just target the top-notch team markets.

(1) Days ago, let's say that a well-known Asian Sharp Minotaur of the past suddenly reappeared from the labyrinth many hours before the start of the clash of weak teams in one of the elite Men's Leagues, offering better odds and acceptable limits than the best modern Sharps. That sudden value offer (beyond my calculated probabilities) didn't last long and I spotted it and caught it by chance, maybe they balanced their lines for a few moments or something.

(2) On the other hand, some well-known Softs didn't manage adequately their live lines at all, only added some margin!
For example, Atlético Belgrano Ladies vs Newell's OB Ladies finished a few minutes ago, here is the link:

youtube.com/watch?v=aZzXalak9zMs

and provided that somehow the agencies have decided that AH(-0.75) should be among the leading offered lines today, and also taking in mind that lately both the Belgrano Ladies & Newell's Ladies teams had oscillating the mean level results regarding two goals distributed at all, and also plenty of additional things processed by the Model triggered the positions here, but especially Softs were weak during the match.
If you love modeling, see the link above and you'll realize exactly why their live-lines-management was out of the Logic, in addition to unusual pre-match AH odds.

(3) Others, distributed across the lower South American Divisións.

The "Holy 2024 Argentine Soccer" is in progress, Atlético River Plate vs Atlético Vélez Sarsfield has started at Mâs Monumental, is that game the hidden championship point for Vélez? WOW.

In the quotation marks above I mean not only the sheer sporting pleasure of the Latino fiesta on the pitch in every game but also the endless misjudgment of these Championships by the odds compilers (thank you very much!!!), I'm just dreaming of what has happened so far in 2024 in the various Argentine Men's Divisións, as well as the elite Ladies Soccer competitions, never to end.

Pretty clear market positions across the BTTS, various Corners markets, O/U, Money Line, and naturally the king markets - the main AH lines CARP vs Vélez Sarsfield today, chosen carefully by my tune-ups due to:
-- The pretty clear supremacy of CARP's corners in the most recent games, but an additional strong warning and re-estimation of a "three-Sigmas-case" when Boca Juniors simply killed CARP in terms of Corners (11:0). Why?
- On the other hand, Vélez Sarsfield's corners in such games are described by a pseudo-sinusoidal function; Why? What exactly is the composition of the Vélez Defensive Dept and why?
- When Gustavo Quinteros maintains medium-long quick passes at speed, the probability of an X-event occurring is quite high in specific cases, spotted by the Observers;
- In my opinion, Marcelo Gallardo has wasted his time outside of Argentina in 2023/24. Now the CARP resurrection is very slow.
All opponents (strong and weak) expect those solid but slow attacks through the center zone primarily, so against each opponent, the probabilities of X and Y are very well described. When Gallardo changes pace/direction in a field area, a few things happen (again pre-evaluating the opponent's defense of course);
- And so on.

Let's see what happens further in that game. At that point (1st Half), Quinteros leads the team such as during his mid-period in Colo-Colo...


Your opinions?

Belgrano Ladies vs Racing Club Ladies in progress, near the end of the game,
It seems to me that after the red card for Racing Club at the end of the first half and after Belgrano's last substitutions minutes ago, Betina Soriano intends to make some unusual riskier extra moves than usual in Belgrano's home games spotted so far.
Also, I think that SBO are offering the wrong prices right now, despite the big margin.

youtube.com/watch?v=nBc6u5r2e0Q

Addendum: Towards the end of the game, Betina Soriano was making much more energetic long and quick passes to Belgrano's attacking department, and she herself risked moving too close towards the forward lines, much like in her previous years as a striker. But because of this, Belgrano's midfield and defense were helpless at the very end when Racing Club scored the winning goal...
Thanks to some oddsmakers for the excellent Asian Handicap lines they gave us in the second half.

Well, Boca Juniors vs Godoy Cruz right now,

I really didn't expect some of the Model's triggered forecasts to happen too early in the timeline today: the goal scored by the Bodeguero team at the very beginning of that game today, as well as covering the BTTS line too early (within the first nine minutes), not to mention covering the Over 2.5 line by the eternal Edinson Cavani halfway through the first half, here I remembered some of Cavani's performances for the PSG team about ten years ago.
What an exciting game in Buenos Aires, let's see the CABJ vs CDGCAT performance during the second half.

Additionally, the River Plate team is goin' to appear within an hour at El Estadio Perón vs Instituto, and some OK lines are offered here by the odds compilers.

While tradin' some liquidity positions regarding European games such as Farul Constanţa vs. Oţelul Galaţi (ended), PSG vs Toulouse, Bayern Muenchen vs Augsburg (ended), Royal Antwerp vs Denderleeuw, on the other screens I'm watching the excellent afternoon sunlight in Buenos Aires:

youtube.com/watch?v=FmWKhka2TI0

youtube.com/watch?v=peM7PiTvSgU

Ferro Ladies vs. Belgrano Ladies
&
Huracán Ladies vs. Platense Ladies
respectively.

Only pre-match Asian Handicap & BTTS positions here according to the El Femenino Clausura last Model tune-ups (based on the most recent Stats, also on what these teams are aiming (or not aiming) for in Clausura, Fecha 16).

Considering Las Piratas' recent performance and the Model's recent warnings, I am not at all surprised by the frivolous play of both teams, including the mistake of the Belgrano right back in front of their goalkeeper before the Greens' goal, nor by the later equalizer plus a third goal today after the pressure on the right flank for Belgrano.
Once again, Betina Soriano is the "Brain" of the Team this year, but her efforts alone throughout the season are not enough to make Las Piratas a much more serious contender, a fact that the odds compilers had underestimated in general in plenty of games so far (Asian Handicap including).

I'm also impressed by the quality of the sharp and quick mid-range goal passes for both goals for Huracán before half-time.

Your opinions?

It's time for the Grand Finale in South America!

Atlético Mineiro vs. Botafogo, La Copa Libertadores 2024 has started.
It's very interesting that both Brazilian teams play at Mâs Monumental in Buenos Aires, with four Argentines on the pitch at the moment, plus Argentine coach Milito. I think the CAM is closer to the symbolic "home team" status today.

The favorite before the match received a red card too early, let's remember what happened ten days earlier in Série A - both Atlético Mineiro & Botafogo received a red card.

Let's enjoy that Fiesta Latina now.

The Botafogo team after the first half today: 22% possession, a red card and two goals ahead.

The pre-match Underdog just scored for 1:2, that's why a very quick assessment of the likelihood that Hulk will show or not at least the bare minimum of what he once did at Zenit St. Petersburg in the second half, plus the percentage of the likelihood that Atlético's defensive department to avoid the "Comédie-Française" style of pseudo-synchronous play for the next 45 min.
Those are the arguments for the next logical market entries.

Your opinions?

Both Ladies' & Men's AFA tournaments are coming to an end soon,

(1) Despite the offered nonsense of the odds compilers before the match Ferro CO Ladies vs CABJ Ladies (mainly AH lines, but also spotted the unbalanced Home vs Away ratio in terms of implied prob, including the underestimating in a hidden manner of the implied prob of a tie in the end), the second half generated a BTTS equivalent, which was logically the most likely scenario for the second half (prob>51%), generated on-the-fly due to what action was observed in the first half on the pitch. Not to mention totally wrong main AH lines, but that's a holy tradition in that tournament in 2024.
Here I don't comment on the timing of the BTTS equivalent occurrence at all, i.e. the very late covering of the overall market positions regarding Boca Juniors' part. Here I spot high, but still a controllable portion of risk. My words are based on what I spotted in Clausura'2024 so far.

Judge for yourself, if you want:

youtube.com/watch?v=IUOEqC9fxn4

(2) In the Men's tournament:

(2.1) Racing Club vs Estudiantes de La Plata was an awesome clash,
Regretfully I had no pre-match positions placed here due to a lack of enough time to model this one prior to the match.
On the other hand, the lack of strong in-play mode Triggers (prob > desired XX %) declined me. My error here was underestimating the quality of the big number of minor Triggers, let's say for observed Criterion i or j: ΣprobTmi%≈XX%, also ΣprobTmj%ϵ{XX±10%} and so on; when it comes to quality analyses of Tmi/Tmj, it's quite a different story.

However, I'll be happy to read your opinions about those vivid nine goals, that resulted in 4:5 on the pitch today.
The post-analyses and the additional testings will be incorporated in the next game's tune-ups, of course.

(2.2) CARP vs San Lorenzo is about to end, second half & the stoppage time,
No surprises at all, what has been spotted so far on the pitch was synchronous to the leading probabilities according to today's tune-ups. River Plate is quite a stable team in terms of the observed set of Stats variables and Marcelo Gallardo is quite a predictable Coach, so targeted positions during the first half and currently in the second one were covered OK to a big degree and the unavoidable errors were negligible. I'm very happy for the BTTS here before the main substitutions, bearing in mind the leading strong Triggers about both teams' Depts;

What is next?

I plan to test thoroughly three Matrices of leading teams in the next 2 rounds:
Matrix 1: Vélez Sarsfield vs Talleres (Córdoba),
M1 Ext: M1 + Racing Club & Huracán;
M1 Ext 2: M1 Ext plus River Plate & Boca Juniors.
At least 30 main and endless secondary variables for every member.
Just see the fixtures to the end.

Vélez & Quinteros are currently slightly ahead, but let's see the testings and the final Forecast by the Model.

Any AFA Modelers here? Your opinions on who will win the Title?