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Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Sun May 15, 2016 12:19 pm

MLS: Houston Dynamo - Real Salt Lake

These two met in the reverse fixture in Salt Lake just two weeks. Real to work hard to win that 2-1 and lost 1-0 at MLS leading Colorado Rapids last weekend, not really any shame in that and Real had six attempts on target and dominated all passing and possession stats in the final third, especially after the break and really ought to have got something from that. They are ending games strongly and I see that giving them a big advantage here with Dynamo having played in midweek, a poor showing in a 3-1 loss to San Jose Earthquakes, where goalkeeper Tyler Deric was sent off late. I guess that will mean a return of Joe Willis between the sticks, Dynamo have just one cleansheet in 11 when he plays, conceding at the rate of 1.91 goals per game. Real have scored eight on their last two visits to Houston , they look the stronger team and have had an extra four days to rest and prepare for this.

Real Salt Lake level ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket
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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Tue May 17, 2016 9:08 am

Championship Playoff: Hull City - Derby County

I was with Derby in the first leg and they played terribly, losing 3-0. Goals change games and County looked the better team for the first 20 minutes, but conceded against the run of play ( goalkeeper will be disappointed) and that was a momentum changer, City grew in confidence and a few minutes later scored a second with a twice deflected shot. That left the Rams feeling sorry for themselves, unable to find a way back and City running the show.

Second leg semi finals have tended to be open games and the last six seasons have seen all twelve games produced a minimum two goals , with ten going "over" and averaging 3.83 goals , four of the last five years have seen the two games total exactly seven goals and after the 1-1 draw last night at Brighton, this "should " produce five goals and that would not totally surprise. Away teams have scored in 10 of 12 ( 11 of 13 after last night) and the home side have scored three or more in seven. Last three teams to win the away first leg have gone on to win the home tie by at least three goals and I guess that County could collapse and "give up" if they conceded first, but you would expect the visitors to at least look to restore some pride and the away supporters are not going to accept any lack of effort this evening. The County players have had to (quite rightly) deal with a lot of local and media accusations of a lack of character in the aftermath of Saturday's debacle and have attempted to defend themselves, no one on the terraces or at boardroom level is going to accept less than 100% commitment tonight and if they lose again, they will have to go down fighting and committed to the cause, or they will be torn apart post match. One goal at either end will surely see this get very stretched. An away win would not surprise, especially as City can lose by two and progress, but I will go with ..........

over 2.75 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket
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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Tue May 24, 2016 9:09 am

FAI Cup: Drogheda United - Derry City

This is a replay after Drogheda United earned a 1-1 draw in the first meeting on Friday, I watched most of that and am still not quite sure how Derry did not win by 4-5 goals.

City hit the woodwork twice, missed a penalty and they were not the big misses, also blowing about five one on ones with the goal keeper and being guilty of some diabolical finishing, you can get some idea from these 3-4 minutes of highlights. United created almost nothing and scored with pretty much their sole attempt on goal and they were gifted that by some Keystone Kop defending from City.

There is pretty much a full division between these two and it looked all of that and then some on Friday and if Derry have half as many scoring opportunities this evening, you have to feel they will win with a degree of comfort. Derry have beaten Drogheda 3-0 and 5-0 in this competition in the last two years and should have won similarly in the first game, playing on the road should not stop justice being done this time round.

Derry City -1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket

 
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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Fri May 27, 2016 9:02 am

French Open: Strycova - Radwanska

Agnieszka Radwanska beat a very nervous looking Caroline Garcia comfortably in R2 and looks to have arrived here in good shape. Ahead of that match I wrote about her untapped talent on the surface ........ "That is been the case in three previous h2h matches with Agnie, which the Polish superstar leads 2-1, with all going to three sets and there has barely been a cigarette paper between them in those matches. This will be just Radwanska's second outdoor clay match of the season and it is fair to say that she has underachieved in Paris compared to the other slams, especially given that she won a singles and doubles tournament here as a junor. She has lost to Annika Beck and Ajla Tomlihjanovic in the last two years and at least subconsciously, I suspect her attention is already on the grass and US hardcourt campaigns ahead. She has the potential to go deep in RG, but it is early that she is most suspect and I expect Garcia to push her all the way today for a fourth time. "

H2h wise she leads BZS 4-0 and has won all eight sets played, despite all being on hard courts that gives Radwanska a big mental advantage and there is a good chance that the Czech player already feels she has surpassed expectations here, having lost in R1 at Roland Garros in her last eight apperances. If we remove Madrid (which is not really clay and is at "altitude") from the stats, she is 0-8 , winning just a single set in Premier and slam events on clay against top 20 ranked players and is 19-35 lifetime in slams against top 100 players.


Agnieszka Radwanska to win 2-0 in sets 1.98 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro
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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Sat May 28, 2016 12:13 pm

MLS: New England Revolution - Seattle Sounders

New England will be looking to bounce back from a 4-2 home loss to FC Dallas and for new and very expensive striker Kei Kamara to start gelling with the talented Revolution midfield. This is a mini transition period for NER as they try to play to get the best out of their new front man who had 31 goals in 46 appearances for Columbus Crew, but now that he has 180 minutes of game time under his belt and Revolution a second free midweek in a row and almost three weeks based in Boston, it looks time to get going. Not least because they have three road games up next and do not play at Foxborough again until July 6th !

Seattle are struggling on the road (0-1-3) , where they have scored just three goals , they made the 3,000 mile cross country trip here on Thursday without Clint Dempsey (US national team), Nelson Valdez (Paraguay) and back up striker Oalex Anderson. That leaves Jody Morris as the only available forward with goals this season and with Lamar Neagle and Obafemi Martins having moved on , this is not the old free scoring Sounders, at least at present.There are creating chances, but all from distance and are simply not getting in the box often enough. I guess Morris will move into the middle, which he will like, but that hardly addresses the supply issue, with no experienced option on the right.

Good chance for Revolution, who won this match up 5-0 the last time these two met on the East Coast ( two years ago).

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Sun May 29, 2016 9:00 am

Golf: BMW PGA Championship

Market is made by Masters champion Danny Willett and two time major winner Martin Kaymer being on the leaderboard. Leader Scott Hend has never won in Europe and second place is held by Tyrell Hatton who has a lot of potential, but is a non winner and he will be under huge pressure today in what remains a big name tournament.

There are still probably 12 players in contention and like most tournaments, this will not be decided until the back nine holes and the 18th is a risk/reward par 5 which has eagle/bogey potential. English players have done well and won five of the last ten at this most English- like of courses, I saw this as circa.......

5.0 Westwood, 7.0 Hend, 9.0 Hatton/ Willet/ Kaymer, 13.0 Yang, 17.0 Wood, 20.0 Aiken, 26.0 Van Zyl/ Quesne, 41.0 Hanson, 26.0 the field.

That is in a 100% ( no profit margin) book and I feel Westwood, Kaymer and Yang are a little big with the bookmakers.

Kaymer has posted top six finishes in his last two starts, played really well last Sunday in Ireland with a closing 65 and likes playing in Britain, but he has never really put four rounds together here. Yang is looking to resurrect his career from the depths , a major winner in 2009 and ranked #19 in the world in 2010, he was #638 at the end of 2014, he is on the way back it seems, but he has not won in six years and is unused to the heat of battle and this is going to get white hot.

Lee Westwood is a prolific winner on all tours ( 23 in Europe !) and whilst still only 43, he has played this event 22 times previously and knows the course better than anyone. He has never won, but lost out in a playoff to Luke Donald in 2011, also has another second place finish to his name and Wentworth owes him a win. Westwood said this week that it is a venue he loves coming back to and that he feeds off the support for the home players here. He is in good shape, a T2 at Augusta gave him a big confidence boost and he was very bullish about his game after a tenth place finish at the K Club in Ireland last week, he said that he played really well, had no luck at all and that 10th was the lowest he could possibly have finished. Westwood shot the only bogey free round yesterday, has played the last two holes in -4 this week, which is best of the top 4 and looks in control of his game, he hit 16 greens in regulation yesterday, took 31 putts and probably feels like the course owes him a few shots, he has to go close and I will suggest ......

Lee Westwood to win outright 6.0 general quote

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Tue May 31, 2016 9:31 am

French Open: Stanislas Wawrinka - Albert Ramos

We sided with defending champion Stan Wawrinka through the quarters/semis and final last year, when he played out of his skin and beat Federer, Tsonga and Djokovic, he was a man on a mission and had promised something "special" at Roland Garros for months in advance. That is covered in my preview of his match with JWT and you can read or re-read those notes at the very foot of this email. I guess he is not quite as motivated this year, that would be close to impossible, but winning major titles is addictive and it is hard to give up something you own without a fight ! The draw has been kind and he will certainly not fear Ramos-Vinolas today and he cannot face Novak until the final.

No one has been more shocked by the progress of Ramos-Vinolas than the man himself and the 28 yo Spaniard has won a lot of fans by his open and honest interviews in Paris, he demolished Milos Raonic in the last 16, losing only 10 games. He has a "suspect" backhand and was supposed to get nervous, but showed few signs of either in an "easy win". However, Raonic did not give ARV the chance to get nervous by putting any real pressure on him and was too impatient to turn defence into attack and made far too many unforced errors in making the transition. Also, Ramos is a leftie and Raonic is 39-14 this year and 282-141 lifetime on Tour, but 4-4 and 29-25 respectively against left handed players and is clearly not as comfortable playing "southpaws".

Wawrinka is 18-5 since the start of 2014 versus lefties and 8-3 in the last 12 months, with all three losses coming against his nemesis in Rafael Nadal , last of those wins was just 14 days ago, when he actually beat Ramos 6-1 6-1 in Geneva. The Spanish player only won 25 points, just 13 of 32 on serve and he is very much, despite what he has achieved here, a journeyman player and in four previous visits to RG had only reached the second round ( and no further) once and at 28 yo he is not going to find huge long term improvement and sooner or later and it will be sooner, he will awake from this dream !

Having discussed how poorly he played against Wawrinka in Geneva, lets look at a h2h game in which he played well, the two met in the opening round at the US Open last year, Ramos played above himself, served well and Stan was a touch sub par, but the Swiss man still won by five games and in straight sets. He is 6-0 in h2h matches, 4-0 on clay, it can be close, but Ramos will have to again raise his game and Wawrinka have a bad day and for both to happen seems unlikely.

Stanislas Wawrinka -7 games 1.95 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro
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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:15 am

Brazil Serie A: Internacional - Atletico Paranaense

Ahead of Inter's last home start I wrote ......

"I was/am interested in Internacional at home to Sport Recife in Brazil, the hosts are very strong at home, have not conceded in five Serie A starts and will definitely be looking for all three points after starting their home campaign with a scoreless draw against Chapecoense. They have won their next two home starts 3-0 after a 0-0 draw and given that they are already back on track with a subsequent 2-1 road win at Sao Paulo and face a tough trip to Santos at the weekend, it should be all about the win against a Sport team who have not won , or impressed in four league and cup starts, BUT odds seem on the money (-1 ball 1.98) and coming into this round of games, 10 of the 13 Serie A wins have been by just a single goal. Inter have not scored a goal inside 26 minutes in five home starts (four wins) and average time for their breakthrough goal is the 58th minute in that sequence, Sport held out for well over an hour here last season in a 2-1 loss and it is definitely an option to hold off and wait for a better quote if you are following this game "in running"."

They won that 1-0 via a goal just before the hour mark and followed up with a impressive win by the same scoreline at strong home side Santos at the weekend. They scored very late there, but it was fully deserved and probably one of the best road performances you will see in Brazil this season, they were very competitive, won virtually every 50/50, allowed Santos few chances and could have been three up before they took the lead. Inter are 8-2-0 at home to Atletico and three points this evening will take them top and put pressure on current joint-leader Gremio who face a tough trip to Palmeiras tomorrow.

AP's form tailed off after a strong start last season and they have won just 9 of their last 32 league starts and that is bottom 5-6 form , so their current position of 16th, even at this early stage, doesn't look particularly false. They host Santa Cruz this weekend and that match is far more win-able and they do not want to waste too much energy chasing a lost cause this evening , we can expect them to play with that game in mind and maybe even with some rotation, but they do have pretty much a fully fit squad to choose from. They lost 4-0 to Palmeiras on opening day, the only "top" team they have faced so far, they got very physical after falling behind and were fortunate to only get one man sent off, they were already three down at that stage and will need a lot to go their way this evening to get anything out of this.

Internacional -1 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:14 am

Copa America: Brazil - Ecuador

Ecuador made a really solid start to World Cup qualifying and ended 2015 on fire, but recent form has tailed off and they conceded two at home to Paraguay and three away to Colombia and are meeting a team they have a bit of an inferiority complex against. They also play with two holding players, but in their case this is so that the full backs can press on and they will be looking to exploit both flanks and get as many balls into the box as possible. They have goals in them, but the defence is a weakness and the central defenders go missing at times and are quite frankly a liability, witness the recent games with Colombia and expecially the two goals conceded against Paraguay .

No Neymar for Brazil, but after the failure last year and World Cup debacle, they could do with a good Copa, they won and conceded in both opening games in those tournaments and I see this playing out similarly, both scoring and probably a Brazil win. This version of the amba Boys are inexperienced and like Ecuador, the central pairing in the absence of Silva and Luiz are vulnerable and will be dealing with a lot of crosses in this game.

over 2.5 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:34 am

Copa America: Colombia - Paraguay

This match is being played in Pasadena, so advantage Colombia having opened in Santa Clara, just a short hop down the coast and a beautiful drive along Highway 101 if you choose to go the scenic route ! Paraguay played in Orlando which means a six hour flight, three hour time difference and having played a day later, 20 hours + less recovery time. All these disadvantages add up and inbetween two tough games, I think it is the exta training session that Colombia will have been able to fit in that is the real bonus and I do think they will be looking to win the group. That would mean staying on the West Coast (Seattle) for their quarter final, as opposed to flying to New York and they would go to Houston in the semis if they won, which is where they are playing their final group game, so a big edge there , or rather no disadvantages, which is effectively the same thing ! It would also give Brazil the "option" to avoid them in the last eight and go into the separate half of the draw from both Colombia and Argentina, by finishing runner up in Group B. They might be without James Rodriguez today which is, of course, a loss, Los Cafeteros are 8-1-1 in his absence, although half of those starts were against weaker opposition than they face today.

Paraguay played as kind of expected against Costa Rica, which was not to lose, head coach Ramon Diaz has been very critical of the schedule (he is right) and the very hot draining conditions, on top of everything else, his team faced in Orlando . They had a lot of experienced and likely starters withdraw from the squad pre tournament, Aguliar, Ortigoza, Barrios and Caceres who all started in their last really good result a 0-0 draw with Argentina for example are missing ( nine players with 413 international starts were either left out , or pulled out of the final squad) and options are limited. Diaz is 95% certain to stick with the eleven who faced Costa Rica, given the weather, travel, time difference, less rest etc, is that a good or bad thing ?

Colombia's odds have risen to 2.15+ this morning, that probably relates to the "loss" of James, which is expected, but now means they are very backable, given that they hold almost every other advantage ..........


Colombia -0.5 ball 2.10 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Thu Jun 09, 2016 3:07 pm

EURO 2016 Top Scorer

I think that the top goalscorer market for the tournament is interesting, with an extra round for the first time, but no third and fourth place playoff game, we do not have any recent history to compare, but I doubt too much will change and that it will really be Group stage goals that will clinch it for someone, but ideally you would like to make at least the quarter final stage and it is hard to see less than five goals being enough this time round. Given that we have already discussed Mandzukic and also like Croatia's chances of making the quarters and possible beyond, it is hard to leave him out of the equation at a big looking 33-1 , but I will pass, given that we are already involved heavily on him and Croatia.

Ronaldo is favourite at 9.0 and I have no problem with that at all and those odds could look a gift in two weeks time with group opponents Austria , Hungary and Iceland having very little big tournament experience between them in the last two decades. But I prefer the chances of another proven goalscorer who is available at twice the odds. That is Robert Lewandowski of Poland, who I have already touched upon as dark horses. They look in a tough group with Germany, Ukraine and Northern Ireland, but were very impressive in qualifying, look a team on the up and have a really offensive minded approach. They scored a whopping 33 goals in qualification and whilst 15 came against group whipping boys , 18 otherwise in a section which included Germany and defensively minded Republic of Ireland and Scotland is very worthy of note. They ended just a point shy of the world champions and scored three goals in the two h2h games with them. The look the second best team in Group C, will certainly not fear the Germans after running them so close in qualifying and finishing top 2 would see them face either a third placed team, or the runner up in the England group and both would be matches we would favour them to win. So a last eight place is very much on the cards. They open against the Irish and whilst Matchday 1 games in any tournament are usually tight, this is their best opportunity to run in a few goals and they will want the points with Germany up next, they finish against a usually defensive Ukraine team, but one who might be forced out of their usual approach by their need for points at that stage.

Lewandowski with 13 goals was the top striker in qualifying , six v Gibraltar with 7 in the other eight games, he was top scorer in Bundesliga with his highest ever tally of 30 goals with an even split of 15 before and 15 after the Christmas break, his total of 9 in the Champions League was his best total since Dortmund's run the final in 2012-13 and a better goals per minute rate than for that campaign. Poland have scored two or more goals in 12 of the last 16 games that the Bayern striker has played and if they play five games and I favour then to do so, he must have a good chance of scoring enough to take him very close in this market.

Robert Lewandowski to be top scorer in Euro 2016 17.0 general quote, bigger in several places

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Sat Jun 11, 2016 9:25 am

EURO 2016: England - Russia

England always come into these championships with solid qualification results, the same old squad, talking a good game and with the rest of the world/europe laughing at the underachievers ! The first is still true, they were a perfect 10/10 in qualification, but this time everything else feels different, the old guard is gone , no Lampard, Gerrard etc and with a very young, but fresh, talented, hungry and energetic squad including Kane, Vardy, Rashford, Alli, Barkley, Wilshire, Dier, Sterling , Stones and Sturridge, who not only have a togetherness and self belief, but the repect of their peers . They have nothing to fear, seven of that group are aged 18-22, are only going to improve ( a lot) and will have many major championships ahead, anything they do in Euro 2016 is really a bonus .

Russia are exactly the opposite, they struggled through a weak qualification group and have conceded nine goals in warm up friendlies to France, Croatia and Czech Republic, 12 of their squad are in their 30th year , it looks like top scorer Aleksandr Kerzhakov's career is over and Alan Dzagoev and Igor Denisov arguably their two best players ( actually not really a debate in the case of Dzagoev) , along with several others were forced to withdraw and the ageing backline looks vulnerable and looks as if they were picked from the cast list of Dad's Army. On top of all these troubles ( Fabio Capello left the squad in terrible shape and devoid of confidence), it was reported that a number of players have had to sit out training this week and the two camps could hardly be in more polar opposite moods coming into these championships.

England -0.75 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:08 pm

J League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Urawa Reds

Sanfrecce looked to have finally broken the Urawa jinx , taking four points from them last year and they are now unbeaten in four h2h meetings. Prior to that Reds had dominated, with their head coach Mihailo Petrovic formerly in charge at Hiroshima for five years and knowing the club back to front. However, few of the current group would have played under him now and much has changed since 2011, but it was previously a major issue. Anyway, both have fallen off Stage 1 title winning pace and paid the price for a Champions League campaign, which always seems the case. Each will be looking to stay in touch of top 3 and to make a big push to win Stage 2.

Both teams played in midweek, Sanfrecce in Tokyo, which is a long trip and four hours on the fastest train and they are fast ! Urawa in Osaka, not sure if they stayed and then moved on to Hiroshima, or went back to Tokyo and then made the trip on Friday, neither is ideal and it is a coin toss which is the more unsettling/draining, so for me, definitely advantage Sanfrecce who would have been back on normal schedule by Thursday. Urawa also played two extra Champions League games and in the last 23 days they have played a home game and made trips to Seoul, Osaka, Tosu ( another long journey) and now Hiroshima and that is very demanding, especially for a team who had about a 4-5 week off season, playing their final game of last season on New Year's Day and a CL game on February 24th ! It is no wonder that the schedule is beginning to take a toll.

Petrovic spoke about the effect all this had on his team after the loss at Gamba, he admitted his team were running on empty, could not keep pace with Osaka early, got into things after the break briefly, but then just run out of steam and that they were "looking to rebuild" and get strong again after the next 2-3 matches were out of the way. They look to have hit a wall and the head coach as admitted as much and it is hard to see how they can be as up for this as the home side and their priority will surely be their two home matches next week.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima level ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:03 pm

Brazil Serie A: Atletico Mineiro - Ponte Preta

Easy to see goals here, last three h2h meetings have gone "over". Atletico have conceded 14 in their last six starts, including four at Sport Recife which we have discussed in the previews below and have not kept a clean sheet in eight, six of Ponte Preta's last seven starts have produced three or more goals. The hosts have the option of bringing back Cazares and Erazo into the squad after the pair returned from Copa America this week, but they will be a game time decision. AMG played at Internacional on Thursday night , using 12 of the 14 who played last weekend in a match where they were down to ten for 30 minutes and at one stage playing versus 9 and then 8 , so all would have been working extra hard and now are playing in the morning game, just some 61 hours later. Ponte Preta were at home on Wednesday and have not travelled for 14 days, so a freshness edge to them. This is the first of four matches in Belo Horizonte for AMG, three at home and the derby with America and a chance for last years runner up to begin their climb up the table, but it is hard to see how it will be achieved with a clean sheet today and another high scoring game is on the cards.

over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 at Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:03 pm

MLS: LA Galaxy- Colorado Rapids

Rapids have been the surprise package of the season and lead the Western Conference with an avergae of over 2 points per game and having conceded a MLS low 11 goals . They are on an eleven match unbeaten run and have conceded more than a single goal just once in sixteen 2016 starts in all competitions. They arrive here on the back of a 2-1 home win over Chicago Fire at the weekend, they have not left the altitude of Colorado for a month and should have some small advantages from that today, with Commerce City 1,574m above sea level. They have been ending games strongly with goals after the 85th minute in each of their last three starts.

Galaxy are suffering a dip in form and have not won in six (all comps) and have kept just one clean sheet in 11 starts, that was ok when they were scoring freely, but the goals have dried up and they have failed to score in their last two and are short of offensive options right now. Robbie Keane and Gyasi Zardes are on international duty and Giovani Dos Santos and Steven Gerrard are doubts, the quartet have 16 goals and nine assists between them (Galaxy have scored 27), definitely out is right back Robbie Rogers who has had ankle surgery, he has missed seven games ( no clean sheets) since last June. On top of everything else, they played in Toronto on Saturday, so a long journey there and back on a quick turnaround and they have been vulnerable, when Rapids have been coming on strong, conceding in three of their last four starts after the 77th minute. They also play the Clasico game with San Jose Earthquakes in front of a massive crowd on Saturday and will surely have that at the back of their mind. Rapids look to have all the advantages and have to be the selection with the handicap start.

Colorado Rapids +0.5 @ 2.04 at Sportmarket

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