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surebet.com and valuebetting

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Enkoff
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:30 pm

hexaflexa wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2024 12:00 pm
Just variance. im currently horrible streak with value combos... 41 lost in row. Imagine how it would look on graph with only 100-200 bets.
So you have to bet but a very small percentage of your bankroll. Do I calculate 0.1% so that it does not have a significant effect? This does not fit Kelly's criterion at all, which does not take into account such tiny bankroll percentages.
Arbfan
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Fri May 03, 2024 5:23 am

I made 175 bets - Settings are 50 bookmakers to compare and odds from 1.6 - 3.2 - and overvalue + 5 % , 2 hours to match , 10 different soft bookmakers and flat bet - up 20 units . But that is very small sample too. Just posting other side of coin . It would by good to share experience here .
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niel
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Sun May 05, 2024 2:47 pm

To OP and guy posting above me, what software do you use to track your bets? I'm curious.

Personally i have been using the surebets service and i'm very happy about it. For me it works, so there could be a few things happening here like bad variance.

On average how much +EV do you aim for? After simulating lots and lots of bets, for me i try to use these settings:
min 30% probability (otherwise you get too much variance), min 2% +EV (otherwise you get too much variance), scale trades with a watered down kelly criterion, minimum odds for calculation select at least 20-30. This means how much bookmakers the tool compares to, the bigger the number the more accurate it will be.

If you are having trouble with valuebetting could also do some arbitrage instead. You won't have drawdowns since it's guaranteed profit.
Arbfan
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Sun May 05, 2024 5:56 pm

As I wrote in first post Overvalue min 5% , Minimum Odds for calculation 50 , Hours to Event start 2 h , Odds 1.6/3.0 I dont use min/max propability . 200 bets so far flat bet.
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A2format
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Fri May 10, 2024 9:34 am

CharlieSheen99 wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:06 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Anyone that wants to make successful valuebetting should understand well this.
This is not a valid use of the law of large numbers. The law of large numbers allows you to determine, for example, the mathematical expectation as accurately as possible.

The questioner's problem is a bit different: a small sample of data, and is it possible to judge the ROI?

Most people would say, no, you need a large sample of data. And they are wrong.

A small sample of data does not give you a way to know the exact ROI, but it does give you hypotheses about the probability of the ROI that might be. You can see from the author's figure, a strong downward slope: this means that the probability of a positive ROI is likely low, but the probability of a ROI <=0 is increasing. With a set of data, these hypotheses will be more and more refined, and according to the law of large numbers, later will give a precise answer about the ROI. (yes, on 1-2 bets pointless to judge, but on 100-200 can already make the first cautious conclusions, with still a large error).

Also, on the available small sample, you can conduct a Monte Carlo simulation and a little more refine the hypothesis about the value of ROI, on the available small sample.

That said, what I said is well illustrated by Surebet's drawing above your post.
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Fri May 10, 2024 9:50 am

arbusers wrote:
Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:17 pm
Of course 150 bets are not enough to determine, but at the same time they are not insignificant to disregard. I see a negative trend unfolding which is not encouraging. But I m starting to see a reason.


Trend.png


In your last attached screenshot I am noticing a majority of sharp bookmakers/exchanges. This can only make your life more difficult. I m wondering why don't you add soft bookmakers in the project? At the same time the graph provided by surebet.com/users/sign_up?affiliate_code=arbusers&zone=arbusers" target="_blank" class="postlink autolinks">Surebet.com above should include a number of soft bookmakers.
In my opinion, value betting is independent of the bookmaker. There are odds and actual odds.

Soft bookmakers are more likely to have value bets, but higher probability that they will quickly limit the player or close the account. That's why there is no point with soft bookmakers. The player either loses or they don't let you win.

And at sharp bookmakers, if there is no value bet, there is no point in betting. Although, in fact, sharp bookmakers have bets on value, but much less often.

From the point of view of mathematics, there is no difference: if the probability is 0.55 and the odds are 2, then the ROI will be the same, both at soft and at sharp bookmakers. The only difference is that the soft ones will most likely not let you win.
Arbfan
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Sun May 19, 2024 10:03 am

Little update - +400 bets - good variance last days .
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George G.
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Thu Jun 27, 2024 5:57 pm

Arbfan wrote:
Sun May 19, 2024 10:03 am
Little update - +400 bets - good variance last days .
Do you use both soft and sharp bookies?
Arbfan
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Tue Jul 09, 2024 12:53 pm

George G. wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2024 5:57 pm
Arbfan wrote:
Sun May 19, 2024 10:03 am
Little update - +400 bets - good variance last days .
Do you use both soft and sharp bookies?
Hi. 99% soft bookies
iv revan
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Sat Jul 13, 2024 1:20 am

Enkoff wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2024 6:15 pm
Hi,
this weekend I tried using value betting on my bookies and got information from surebet.com/users/sign_up?affiliate_code=arbusers&zone=arbusers" target="_blank" class="postlink autolinks">surebet.com. I checked all the odds on the bet monitor to make sure the odds were really too high. It sounded logical so I placed 100 bets. However, the result is miserable:

https://i.imgur.com/fpu0TA1.png

It's a small sample for sure, but the loss is relatively high for how much I bet. The result is a loss of 5%. Does anyone have long-term experience with this service and value betting from them? Or is it a general phenomenon? What is your average drawdown percentage?

If you want win with value betting need to learn calculate value alone and may be if you have skills start to make profit if you cant calculate right odds then you lose money it is hard work not just pay money for sites and make profit easy it is not work be sure.
Mete
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Re: surebet.com and valuebetting

Sun Jul 14, 2024 6:09 pm

Enkoff wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:53 pm
Surebet.com wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2024 10:18 am
Hello,

Could you please specify the bookmakers that you used for valuebetting on SureBet? When searching for valuebets, we consider all the equivalent bets in the total bookmakers' pool, calculate "the true" probabilities for each of them, and then take the average. We do not differentiate between sharp and slow bookies, so our service will work much better for the slow ones in fact.

Best regards,
surebetcom
For my weekend tryout it is the better choice to make value bets with sharp bookmakers and exchanges https://i.imgur.com/C0cdQz0.png

But this was a very small sample and no conclusions can be drawn from it. I asked the community about their experiences, because this way I would further avoid value betting. A loss of 5% is quite large for the fact that I only bet the highest odds in the market
So where do I begin... Oh I have no idea about tipsport as it is not available in my region, however, except for cloudbet, none of these bookmakers are soft, they are close to sharp on the scale of soft/sharp. Coming to cloudbet, most of the value bets you find on cloudbet, you will not be able to wager as once you send the bet, they have a system that checks the bet, sort of like how we do, and if they find the bet to be high valued, they will drop it down immediately. Thus, if they are letting you bet, highly probable that it is not a value.

You said something like you do not believe in sharps and softs... You need to research a lot more on this. Let's say for an over/under market, average of the all bookmakers available to that market on surebet give 2.1 / 1.7. Which makes surebet.com/users/sign_up?affiliate_code=arbusers&zone=arbusers" target="_blank" class="postlink autolinks">surebet.com think the probability is 45% to 55%. And your sharp (like all of the bookies you have, from the screenshot as i can tell) gives 1.93 / 1.93.

So vice versa happens sometimes, but quite often, sharp bookies are the first ones to determine the change in the situation, whether it is a player is not playing, weather conditions, psychological change, the change in the will to score of the teams or whatever. So sharp bookies are usually the bookmakers to first correct, or make the odds correcter than the other ones. So when you are trying to value on sharps, surebet shows 1.93*55%-1= around 6% positive value bet. However, actually, the happening probabilities of over / under is closer to 50% / 50% rather than 45% / 55%. That is where you are mistaking. Since surebet works on averaging possible odds for that market and soft bookies are more in number than sharps, whenever sharps change their odds (later, soft bookies will follow in the direction of change of sharps actually, you just do not check it after you place your bets), surebet shows that as a valuebet.

That is why, I suggest you to definitely switch to soft bookies, and use sharp bookies for arbitrage betting, dont even waste your time valueing on sharpies. Secondly, go on trademate value finder too, as they take pinnacle as referance instead of averaging all bookies including sharps and softs. Thirdly, try to find as much trustworthy clones of softs as you can find, switch to them as you get limited. As for the fourth, you can also check surebet arbitrage finder to find values, select your softs and pinnacle or any other sharp bookies as you can find, make sharp required bookmaker, and if an arb appears that is more than 1%, bet on the non-sharp side only. This will make you money. Also, different sharp bookmakers are "sharps" on different sports, Bookmaker,eu is sharp on table tennis in my opinion, you will get the sense of it if you also keep track of your bets sorting them by sports. Well, the recommendations would go on till forever, let these sink in and keep trying, you will get somewhere eventually.

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