Arbusers

Media reports that according to Polymarket, a French national placed thousands of bets totalling more than $50m on Donald Trump winning the US presidential elections. These bets were able to shape a picture of Trump being the favourite, and were later mentioned by several figures including Elon Musk.

Polymarket also stated there is no evidence the French bettor placed these bets in a deliberate attempt to boost Trump's odds. However, it appears this bettor having a background and an extensive trading experience in the financial sector and identifies him self as ''Théo'' according to the WSJ.


Of course, in these elections there are so many things at stake, it wouldn't surprise me that ''Théo'' ends up as a fictional character, but if this person is real, I believe he is doing a cross market arbitrage with one leg being the US elections, and the 2nd being a USD rate (possible USD/EUR or USD/GBP), or BTC.

It is also my understanding these 50mn were placed during the last 3 weeks, and this would be enough money to ''shape a picture''.

I did the same, i hedged my btc position against this election. Only difference my money does not shape anything. But there are many little theos out there i guess.

Interactive Brokers - IBKR Forecast trader now offer Kamala Harris to WIN - Yes - 0.48 USD (48%) and NO - 0.52 (52%).

There is a huge gap which is getting tighter in Betfair. Yes I think there is risk involved, mainly due to rules and regulation of that particular market. Betfair learned their lesson last year. I am really fond of arbing different rules for markets in bookies, someone might get involved in this opportunity.

I don't participate in such markets, it is not my cup of tea.

Media reports that Polymarket is now blocking French users, amid an investigation that was started right after the US elections, and after the FBI raid to Polymarket's CEO home. The French gambling regulator (ANJ) is reportedly conducting an investigation, examining Polymarket’s compliance with the country’s gambling laws, after a French national placement of bets up to (reportedly) 28mn USD that resulted a net profit of around 85mn USD.
Polymarket recorded over $3bn in bets on the US presidential election, most of them coming from outside the USA.
It is reported that French users can still access Polymarlet with VPN services.