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The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:09 am

Thank you for this very informative post. I have some comments to make and I hope I get my answers.

The arbusers index is not only Odds4Stats index, but there are other projects participating as well. A betting bot and some players who value baton online and offline independently. That means that Odds4Stats represents a big fraction of the index and not all of it.

By reading this thread completely I see that arbusers made several comments about reducing the stake when you were very near in the peak. Maybe you should work more in that, or maybe it is greed that made you not to reduce the stake. Who knows!

No limit in Marathonbet? We need to discuss about this.

2484 events? I m impressed. That means that on average you are placing 10-11 bets daily. That also means that you have a very big sample that can be trusted.

What do you mean with that? Quoting:
We would add that it is very important to know that ODDS4STATS does not want to beat soft book offices, but base offices.
What is your performance when we talk about Pinnacle and betfair?

Thank you very much for this great post.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:53 am

Thank you for your response and positive feedback to our post!

Yes, indeed, there are others in the AVBI index portfolio. Arbusers can confirm it if ODDS4STATS represents a big fraction of the index or not.

We are sure that it was not the greed that lead us to the decision we brought. In spite of the large number of available data, we did not model precisely enough, but we also included the intuition of the decision, which should not be used for a specifically math-based analysis.

We learned from it. As we have done before, we will still be objective and remain calm even when it comes to bet-handling. We're based on numbers, not on the intuition.

As far as Marathonbet is concerned, by our experience, there are 2 tricks that we suggest to pay attention to at this office. One is fixed bets. The other is to avoid the arbitrage position.

2484 events, 10-11 bets/day: Yes, thanks to our many years of thorough collection and data validation, we have a huge sample data. At ODDS4STATS our approach is that the result of a strategy is representative only when we reach at least 500 bets in that strategy.

We think, that beating the soft bookies is not rocket science (everyone knows what bookies we are talking about). However, to override base offices requires much higher qualifications. We will also be writing about our experience, information and ODDS4STATS related methodology.

Thanks again for the inspirational professional feedback!
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:53 pm

AVBI Nov 18.001.jpeg


This is the final performance for November 2018.
For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 6 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 30% gravity in our index. This bot participated with a bigger percentage in November, because O4S volumes went down significantly.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf contributing with 55% gravity because it generates bigger volumes compared to other participating projects. However, this month’s volumes were reduced to a large extend.
c. 1 value bettor operating manually on line. This player participates with a total 7.5% gravity in our index, because of his experience and the big variety of bookmakers that he is using.
d. 1 value bettor operating manually off line. This player participates with a total 7.5% gravity in our index.
Unfortunately we didn’t receive reports from a couple more players during November

Commenting:
That was a slightly positive month after the crash of September and October.
The Value betting bot was stable and positive during all month. We observed that bots are far more stable compared to manual activity and this gives us many hints for the future.
Once again, the bad performance of the month is due to O4S bad performance. However, we have to say that rolling down the cliff stopped. November started positively for O4S but after the 15th we started again having bad performance and we lost all gained profits of the first half of the month. In the end, O4S finished the month in red ground, or it should be better to say pink ground, since we encountered small losses. Again, we are happy that the crash stopped and we are looking forward better performances in the future. At the same time we are not happy, because the overall performance is lower compared to other successful betting actions.
It is obvious that Bot and action hedged the negative action from O4S.
At this stage we have to say once again that we did not lose our faith in O4S project. Losing and winning streaks are always expected and will be handled, for as long as our strategy is correct. We know that our strategy is correct, but needs some corrections.
As previously said we observed that bots operate better than humans and the expected return is far bigger. So are the expected risks as well. We decided to go deeper in this comparison and we will analyse all data we have to properly understand the markets.
Thank you.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:42 am

AVBI Dec 18 preliminary.001.jpeg


We are updating the Index with a preliminary report for December 2018. The stats that you see are including all games that finished yesterday night at 12.
The O4S project went fantastically well from the beginning of the month until the 10th. It was an intense winning streak that left us speechless especially when long-shots were correct and we had plenty of them. After the 10th it is stagnated.
The WGFP bot went very well also. It is a bot that never had a negative month during the year. As previously said, we will make a comparison about manual and automated value betting in the coming period. We are sure the findings will impress you.
We didn't collect data from our members who participate in the index, so what you see is strictly O4S and WGFP.
If we look for patterns, we see that after the 14th of December the moving average went above the actual performance and that might be a signal for a slower period, or even a forthcoming losing streak. This remains to be seen.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:12 pm

Nice! Do you have any total numbers including bets, ev and roi? ..Guess the graph shows some of this, but would have been interesting to know the exact numbers. Thanks for the updates Arbusers!
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:07 pm

Yes, we have some numbers, but not all of them. We will present them at the end of the year so we have a good and accurate picture of 2018.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:39 pm

"As far as Marathonbet is concerned, by our experience, there are 2 tricks that we suggest to pay attention to at this office. One is fixed bets. The other is to avoid the arbitrage position.

2484 events, 10-11 bets/day: Yes, thanks to our many years of thorough collection and data validation, we have a huge sample data. At ODDS4STATS our approach is that the result of a strategy is representative only when we reach at least 500 bets in that strategy."


Hi, Im almost certain if you place this amount of bets and turn a profit your account will at the very least be severely limited, if not completely closed.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:59 am

We want to remain factual: the current Marathonbet account, used by ODDS4STATS, is beyond the 1000 placed bet. This account has been alive since the beginning of 2018 and has generated a yield of 7.64% from the beginnings, which of course means more payments. Arbusers can confirm it.

Again, we add that we avoid arbitrage with our bets.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:38 am

AVBI Dec 18.001.jpeg


This is the final performance for December 2018.
For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 Value Betting (WGFP) bot operating with 6 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 35% gravity in our index.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf contributing with 65% gravity because it generates bigger volumes compared to other participating projects.

Unfortunately we didn’t receive reports from any other Value Bettor.

Commenting:
December was proved to be a very good month that corrected the overall picture of our Index to a large extend.
The WGFP Value betting bot was stable and positive during all month, but the performance was lower compared to the previous month.
O4S had an outstanding performance in December, as it’s been within a strong winning streak that we hope it continues for January 2019.
We are about to present some more stats and graphs in the coming days, so we have a better picture of the Index. We are analysing the results. The sample that we have is huge as we are talking about thousands of bets and very big volumes. Exactly what is needed for Value Betting.
Thank you.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:41 pm

Here is the performance of our Index on a month by month basis for the year 2018.
Not bad I would say.

AVBI 2018 Final.001.jpeg


Soon we will publish some more data about our Index.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:10 am

As you probably noticed, the Odds4Stats Value Project occupied large part of our Index.
Here are the Odds4Stats performance for the year:

Number of bets: 4213
Hit rate: 40.49%
Totally staked: 322062.46 EUR
Returned: 333039.43 EUR
Profit: 10976.97 EUR
ROI: 3.41%

Please notice that we had to pay fees for their service that are not included in the figures above.

Those who followed this thread you might have noticed that we changed our staking plan during the summer. Because of the losing streak of the Autumn, it was proved that we made a wrong decision. Here is an ascertainment deriving from this. Always rase the stake after a losing streak, or reduce stake after a winning streak. Unfortunately you can never be sure when these streaks end, so one could opt to hold the same staking plan for a season or even more.

In the following graphs, please notice the differences between the performance and the unit charts. The unit chart behaves better than the performance chart.
Last edited by arbusers on Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:19 am

Performance Chart

Performance Chart.png
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:20 am

Unit Chart

Unit Chart.png
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:09 pm

Thanks for the updates Arbusers. Very interesting stuff!
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:48 am

Another ingredient of our Index for 2018 was the WGFP Value Betting bot.
Betting volumes here were much more bigger compared to O4S. This bot operated in a rather big number of accounts that were provided by several members of the forum, who requested from us a Value Betting bot to increase their profits.
The number of accounts using WGFP fluctuated immensely. When compiling our index we were taking into account only a small number of accounts, just 10.
You will notice in the following stats a correlation between O4S performance and WGFP. Inevitably the competition between manual and automated value betting will come to the surface. We believe that the comparison of these 2 charts do not represent reality, so don't jump to quick conclusions only with these 2.
Notice that account owners had to pay expensive fees for the WGFP bot as well, and the actual profit is lower than what you see in the charts.

WGFP Value Betting Bot.png

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