Arbusers

I honestly have a lot of doubts that Biden can be alive in 2028.
Democrats should choose a different candidate.

CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 10, 2023 6:53 pm

I honestly have a lot of doubts that Biden can be alive in 2028.
Democrats should choose a different candidate.

I think its too late now. I find both Republican and Democrat's candidates simply laughable (or sad, depending on how you look at it...) Bush looks like a smart person next to them and he was a fuckin moron haha

neopas wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:47 am

But on the other hand. If you bet on an event that early, then we know that your overall ROI is what, 30-40% per year. Is this the best you can do? And you call your self an arber?

Even though most of your opinions are good, in this case you are wrong. In fact with this post you demonstrate that you have lack of funds, or maybe a current deficiency of funding necessary to maintain current operations.
So let me suggest this with all my good heart.
Divide your funds into 3 parts.
Part1 will be for current business, arbing, value betting, trading, any market that will be decided within a time period of 1 week. This is going to be the capital that makes the majority of your profits.
Part2 will be for business with a horizon between 7 days and 2-3 months.
Part3 will be for any long term market, elections, CL, National teams, Oscars, Eurovision, this kind of things.
But let me be clear. Capital intensity principal requires that you keep as much money as you can in Part1. Part2 and 3 should be funded if you can't use all funds efficiently in Part1.
I hope this helps, and good luck.

crypto data wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 20, 2023 7:51 am

Is any value to bet on elctions one year before the event?

Of course there is value. In fact this is where the big value hides.

campeones wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:34 am

Divide your funds into 3 parts.
Part1 will be for current business, arbing, value betting, trading, any market that will be decided within a time period of 1 week. This is going to be the capital that makes the majority of your profits.
Part2 will be for business with a horizon between 7 days and 2-3 months.
Part3 will be for any long term market, elections, CL, National teams, Oscars, Eurovision, this kind of things.
But let me be clear. Capital intensity principal requires that you keep as much money as you can in Part1. Part2 and 3 should be funded if you can't use all funds efficiently in Part1.
I hope this helps, and good luck.

As always an excellent post from Campeones.
You might remember the best trade I ever had in my 20+ years career. It was Eurovision and according to your strategy it was Part3 of funds. Well it was an exception to the rule. Part3 was the most Capital Intensity I ever had. If you don't remember: eurovision-2022-ukraine-t8547/

That situation had many similarities with October 7th.
Hamas attacked Israel, beheading babies, massively raping women before parading their corpses in the streets. It was the perfect set up for a new Eurovision Triumph.
But...
It was too early for the odds. Remember the invasion in Ukraine started at the end of February and already many bookmakers including Betfair had their odds up. Now, there are no available odds.
And secondly everyone could anticipate Israel to fight back against Hamas. That would backfire on the odds.
All I am saying is to keep an open eye in long term markets as they could become the chicken with the golden eggs.

@Blackjack, I had to moderate your post to avoid confrontations that would lead to a minefield.
Let's stay within the gambling circle here.
Thank you very much, and I hope you understand.

GNMbg wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 10, 2023 6:12 pm

Ramon Montenegro wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 10, 2023 4:02 pm

This is one of my most awaited event!
I really think that trump is better than Biden!!!!

thats like saying my shit is better than yours

I'd like that! Hahah

campeones wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:34 am

Even though most of your opinions are good, in this case you are wrong. In fact with this post you demonstrate that you have lack of funds, or maybe a current deficiency of funding necessary to maintain current operations.
So let me suggest this with all my good heart.
Divide your funds into 3 parts.
Part1 will be for current business, arbing, value betting, trading, any market that will be decided within a time period of 1 week. This is going to be the capital that makes the majority of your profits.
Part2 will be for business with a horizon between 7 days and 2-3 months.
Part3 will be for any long term market, elections, CL, National teams, Oscars, Eurovision, this kind of things.
But let me be clear. Capital intensity principal requires that you keep as much money as you can in Part1. Part2 and 3 should be funded if you can't use all funds efficiently in Part1.
I hope this helps, and good luck.

Thank you for the inputs. Your posts are always clearing my thoughts. You are giving a lot of clarity.

blackjack wrote: You might remember the best trade I ever had in my 20+ years career. It was Eurovision and according to your strategy it was Part3 of funds. Well it was an exception to the rule. Part3 was the most Capital Intensity I ever had. If you don't remember: eurovision-2022-ukraine-t8547/

That situation had many similarities with October 7th.
Hamas attacked Israel, beheading babies, massively raping women before parading their corpses in the streets. It was the perfect set up for a new Eurovision Triumph.
But...
It was too early for the odds. Remember the invasion in Ukraine started at the end of February and already many bookmakers including Betfair had their odds up. Now, there are no available odds.
And secondly everyone could anticipate Israel to fight back against Hamas. That would backfire on the odds.
All I am saying is to keep an open eye in long term markets as they could become the chicken with the golden eggs.

Thank you for the perspectives.

Biden's odds rolling down.
Any chance you bring back this thread?

This is a major market. I would like to have access to the data from the US bookmakers. Betfair is no longer the beacon in this market.

It is a shame some people didn't want this thread to go on, maybe admin could have an ignore button so we could individually mute the members we don't want to read.

Polymarket responds very fast and according to Betfair and clones. I am finding multiple arbs within the same day between Stoiximan and Betfair, but this is just pocket money each time not allowing me to bet big at once.

If Trump does not win, we will probably see some riots.

CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:44 pm

If Trump does not win, we will probably see some riots.

It works the other way around too.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:01 pm

CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:44 pm

If Trump does not win, we will probably see some riots.

It works the other way around too.

yes, you are right. The US is more divided than ever.