Arbusers

We are now just 24 hours away from the US mid term elections. I really can’t remember any mid term elections being so polarised and at the same time expected to trigger a series of events with irreversible results. Let’s have a look what these events will be. I will also present some of my thoughts that I m sure the world will realise in 2 years from now, just before the Presidential elections of 2024.

Take it as a fact, the Democrats will collapse. The extend of this collapse will be so big that it will force the party to ask Biden not to run for the 2024 elections. As a result, it will be Kamala Harris, or another person that will run for President. If it is not Kamala Harris, it will be a very controversial person who will run for Democrats. The Democrats will do anything within their powers to polarise the 2024 elections, because without polarisation and fanaticism, they are dead. That said, do not be surprised if you see Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, Elizabeth Warren or someone beyond every imagination. As you noticed, I specifically mentioned 2 female candidates. These are communists to the core and that is why they will spark polarisation.

On the other hand, the Republicans will easily win the mid elections but there is a phantom in the horizon called Donald Trump. Trump is very well positioned to blackmail the Republican Party. He is so popular, that if not elected by the party, he will run as an independent. That means he will wreck the Republicans when they were the clear favourite for a triumph. I wouldn’t like to be a senior member of the Republican party, because the challenges are immense. At the same time Trump is indeed a danger for the West as a whole.

If you study the US system, you will see the President being predominantly about foreign policy. Internal policy is well defined by strong institutions and no President has the power to change things dramatically, unless he/she neglects foreign policy. This is the real danger from AOC and Warren. They will destroy internal policy and the US will collapse from inside. Can you imagine the implications of this collapse for the rest of the world? The stake is not just the US.

I hope the Republican party finds a way to discourage Trump, and promote people like Mike Pence or Mike Pompeo. People that are committed to the values of Democracy and Western Civilisation.

There are models showing which US politicians are well connected with others and as a result, they have better chances running for Presidents. One of these models is created by Nicholas Christakis, a Yale professor and cowriter of a book called ‘’Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives’’ One of the book’s chapter is dedicated to Presidential elections, and it can be used for guessing who will run for President from both Parties. The book was written before the Trump phenomenon.

a republican senate majority is 1.45 on Betfair, seems very large odds

Ron De Santis is good shout if only Trump wouldn't stand? unlikely with his ego, no Rep' one will want to stand against Trump wary of the damage it may do to their careers.

come 2024 not surprised if Michelle Obama is the dem' candidate, yes nonsensical but USA politics is so messed up.