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Value Betting calculator

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
Goojybooboo
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Value Betting calculator

Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:24 am

I read all the sources that I could find on line, and of course all articles in arbusers portal and forum, but still it is not clear to me how to calculate the true probability of an outcome. The only thing that comes to my mind, is having the odds from Betfair, provided there is enough steam in the market, and use these odds, for calculating the real probability of the outcome. Is that correct?
What happens when the steam is not enough? What if back bet is 1.68 and lay bet is 1.70? How would you calculate the true probability? Would you say 1.68, or 1.69 are the true odds?

When there is only pinnacle, how would you use it? I am thinking that if the odds are 1.981-1.981, then the real odds are 2-2. Is that correct or am I calculating something wrong?
Thank you very much for your help.
Rodrigo
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:30 pm

Hi, Goojybooboo. I am not an expert and some people in this forum can answer that question better than me, but here is what I think. All depends of the bookie and the sport you bet. For example Pinny and 5Dimes are very sharp in american sports, Betfair and SBO are very sharp in big socer leagues, also some soft bookies are very acurrate in the probability of the outcame in some sports (discounting the juice obviously). Like I say all depends on the sport you bet, if you have a NBA match minutes before the game start team A with 1.96 and team B with 1.96, the true probability of that game like you say is 50%-50%. So if you see in a soft bookie a odd in 2.01 you get a little value there.

Hope this help a little.

Regards.
barret19
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:49 pm

To calculate the true odds you have to add the vig/juice to the odds shown on Pinnacle/Betfair.

sportsbettingcalcs.com/betting-tools#vigfree_calculator

If a o/u2.5 market gives you 1.8 / 2.00 , the true odds are actually 1.89 / 2.11.

So to catch value on a soft bookmaker you have to bet on odds > 1.89+ or 2.11+.

If you catch o2.5 @ 1.95, you have a value bet. In this case to find your edge ,just divide (1.95/1.89) -1  = 0,03 = 3% edge.
Last edited by barret19 on Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
Goojybooboo
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:19 am

Rodrigo wrote: if you have a NBA match minutes before the game start team A with 1.96 and team B with 1.96, the true probability of that game like you say is 50%-50%.
Thank you for confirming my initial thoughts.

@barret19, Thank you for your examples and confirming the initial thought on Pinnacle. When it comes to Betfair and the steam is enough then I guess I have absolutely nothing to add at the odds. But what if the steam is not enough, for example, 2-3 days before the event, how would you say the true odds on a case 1.68-1.70. Will you offer 1.69 to the back side or the lay side?
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arbusers
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:15 am

Market odds are not that tight in early betting. If you can't figure out what the true probability of an outcome is based on the odds that you see in betfair, then probably you should change your tactics in deciding where the value is? Maybe it worths having a look at Pinnacle, Penta88 or another asian style bookmaker? In the end, maybe you should be doing a bookmaker's job, which many people do, to compile your own odds, and these odds might be the correct one?
blackjack
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:27 am

Pinnacle's lackeys always speaking about efficiency of Pinnacle and reasoning why you should be able to beat Pinnacle's closing lines. These are all Bullshit and against common knowledge and Mathematics.
Before speaking about value we must define the time. When you have fluctuating odds what is high value now will be poor odds later and vice versa. So instead of pumping and chasing odds the smart bettors should be looking for the highest possible odds of a market. That would be a guarantee you got value. All the rest is simply BS.
neopas
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Mon Mar 01, 2021 4:00 pm

blackjack wrote: Pinnacle's lackeys always speaking about efficiency of Pinnacle and reasoning why you should be able to beat Pinnacle's closing lines. These are all Bullshit and against common knowledge and Mathematics.
Before speaking about value we must define the time. When you have fluctuating odds what is high value now will be poor odds later and vice versa. So instead of pumping and chasing odds the smart bettors should be looking for the highest possible odds of a market. That would be a guarantee you got value. All the rest is simply BS.
I agree with that. Pinnacle presents them selves as being an authority in smart and sharp betting. This is simply BS. Have a look at the posts here in the forum with so many members being smarter than Pinnacle's traders.
And their reaction? Pathetic really. Trying to discourage players by delaying payments and withholding funds they believe they deserve.
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arbusers
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:56 am

Neopas has a point here.
blackjack
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:48 pm

Goojybooboo wrote: When there is only pinnacle, how would you use it?
Simply put you shouldn't use it. Because you compete only with Pinnacle and unless you belong to that 1% of the 1% of smart bettors being able to beat Pinnacle, you will lose by competing them.
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Tue May 04, 2021 5:37 am

blackjack wrote: unless you belong to that 1% of the 1% of smart bettors being able to beat Pinnacle
How can they beat Pinnacle really?
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:09 pm

blackjack wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:27 am
Pinnacle's lackeys always speaking about efficiency of Pinnacle and reasoning why you should be able to beat Pinnacle's closing lines. These are all Bullshit and against common knowledge and Mathematics.
Before speaking about value we must define the time. When you have fluctuating odds what is high value now will be poor odds later and vice versa. So instead of pumping and chasing odds the smart bettors should be looking for the highest possible odds of a market. That would be a guarantee you got value. All the rest is simply BS.
How true!!!
I noticed there are many Pinacle lackeys pretending being experts and theoreticians of gambling. I m wondering if they ever placed a bet in Pinnacle or in the shop of their neighborhood.
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arbusers
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Re: Value Betting calculator

Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:15 am

One of the things I also noticed, is that there is a huge difference between theory and reality. Knowing the mathematics of gambling is not a guarantee of success in real life. You need far more than this. However, maths are needed to support any project.

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