Value betting guide.

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
qbet
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:17 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: If you want to take your chance with Value Betting but scared of risk, you can use risk-free method also. It works this way,

You're simply arbing but leaving the profit on softbook side.

For example,

When arbing you make like this,

Chicago +100 (2,00)
New York +120 (2,20)

Arb value is %4.76.
You can risk 1200€ on Chicago at 2,00 and New York at 1091€ for 109€ profit regardless of result.

Or..

You risk 1200€ on Chicago at 2,00.
And just 1000€ on New York at 2,20!

If Chicago wins, your net profit is 200€!
If New York wins, then your net profit is 0€. You're breakeven.

We can analyze this risk-free strategy a bit further.

This is equivalent of placing an arb of €1100 on Chicago and €1000 on New York and a straight bet of €100 on Chicago.
The value from the arb now drops to €100. If we assume that the expected return of the Chicago bet is 15%, although this may be a little optimistic, the value of the straight bet becomes €15. This yields a value of €115 for the risk-free strategy overall which is a little higher than that of conventional arbitrage. Perhaps over the long haul this strategy could yield 5% more profits over arbitrage which is not bad given that we are not taking any risks, but if we want to achieve higher profits we must bet much more aggresively.
Last edited by qbet on Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
betahead
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Re: Value betting guide.

Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:32 am

have anyone tried the value bets at betcatcher.com?
cristi13
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sat Sep 21, 2013 6:40 pm

Using this strategy i suspect the edge will be a little over 2x of the arb % (because you invest only half, minus the juice at the sharpbook).
A quick example: 1.85 odds at basebook, 2.28 odds at softbook, will result in a 2.13% arb; now, if you take the juice from the basebook, the real odds will be, let's say 1.88, which would result in a 3.03% arb, but without covering the basebook, it doubles to 6.06% (it's actually more in this particular example, but on average it is 2x)
Pros:
-higher ROI
-you can bet a smaller amount for the same winrate and delay limits by the bookie
-it's easier to make one bet than two, and easier to manage your money
Cons:
-strict discipline required, these downswings can give you some serious headaches and make you doubt your system on a bad day
-strict bankroll management required, the variance is so high that you can't really bet more than 2-3% of bank
-by arbing you can bet a large portion of the bank on a single arb, winning much more than betting only 2%
So i find it much more suitable for big players which huge banks that already bet a small % on an arb
Mi_t_is
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Re: Value betting guide.

Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:56 am

anybody here who switch to valuebetting and is profitable? Iam testing it but i dont have a lot of matches and i dont find any database of matches.

mine test 41bets at surebet.com valuebets 105% ROI.. keep going.. Is 1000bets enough?
Last edited by Mi_t_is on Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
cristi13
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Re: Value betting guide.

Tue Sep 24, 2013 2:16 pm

For 105% ROI i suspect 1000 bets will be close enough to the actual winrate. I wouldn't trust these "valuebets" as many of them are at pinnacle, and you get no explanation as to why they are valuebets, how do they calculate the actual probability? I would just pick arbs involving pinn and choose the other side.
Mi_t_is
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Re: Value betting guide.

Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:33 pm

Iam betting every bet on softbook. Pinn and other sharps not. Overvalue over 2% and odd under 5. I would like to reach 1000bets for better statistic
swanz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:54 pm

i too am looking into value betting, the diff is i only use book and lay of at  betfair, i have looked back on 8 months of my arbin figures vs if i didnt lay at betfair,  and in most weeks i would have generated nearly 50% more than my arbing profit. Bearing in mind i only do horse racing so odds are rarely 2.0. i think i prob had a 3 small negative weeks out of 8 months on working out. but my betfair history rarely has a positive week, as if that happens you dont really make money if betfair is positive.  i have been not laying my comms which is 2.2% , ( i underlay all arbs). the only prob with value betting is risks from a bad losing run which happens, in my case i used to put 600-1000 small bet a week on so somewhere around 30-50k bets at books. my next test will to probably lay 10% less on the betfair side, so example bet £20/ lay £18. anyone have any view?
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Re: Value betting guide.

Tue Oct 15, 2013 11:14 pm

I am still covering the arbs in the sharp books, but just as stop-loss. So you increase the benefit in the softbook.

I write an example:

Uruguay - Argentina
Over Under (3.5)
Over
2.42 SBObet
Under
1.75 WH

With this surebet, If I place 200€ Under in WH I will bet 141€ in SBO. So If the result is Under I will have 9€ profit and If finally the Over wins I will have 0.22 € in SBO. So I place the stakes in order to have the most benefit possible in softbooks and nothing in the sharps. Since I do this, my profit increased.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 7:52 am

pescu23 wrote: I am still covering the arbs in the sharp books, but just as stop-loss. So you increase the benefit in the softbook.

I write an example:

Uruguay - Argentina
Over Under (3.5)
Over
2.42 SBObet
Under
1.75 WH

With this surebet, If I place 200€ Under in WH I will bet 141€ in SBO. So If the result is Under I will have 9€ profit and If finally the Over wins I will have 0.22 € in SBO. So I place the stakes in order to have the most benefit possible in softbooks and nothing in the sharps. Since I do this, my profit increased.

yeah that's a good strategy since we all have negative balance at sharps bookies.I do it myself some times.Just bet at sharps that amount which gives you back the stake you placed at soft bookies.
Yngwie
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:58 am

Sometimes, the value is too obivious. Like Chile last night for example. Chile -0,25 was 2,05. Then it dropped to 1,93. When it dropped to 1.93; Ecuador +0,25 was 2,39-2,42 at sharp books. If you pick value bets like these, you can achieve a monstrous yield over long haul.

Just make sure you don't bet (value betting I mean) on low limit sports like Challenger Tennis.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:19 pm

pescu23 wrote: I am still covering the arbs in the sharp books, but just as stop-loss. So you increase the benefit in the softbook.

I write an example:

Uruguay - Argentina
Over Under (3.5)
Over
2.42 SBObet
Under
1.75 WH

With this surebet, If I place 200€ Under in WH I will bet 141€ in SBO. So If the result is Under I will have 9€ profit and If finally the Over wins I will have 0.22 € in SBO. So I place the stakes in order to have the most benefit possible in softbooks and nothing in the sharps. Since I do this, my profit increased.
Wow, you just discovered America :)
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:28 pm

pescu23 wrote: I am still covering the arbs in the sharp books, but just as stop-loss. So you increase the benefit in the softbook.

With this surebet, If I place 200€ Under in WH I will bet 141€ in SBO. So If the result is Under I will have 9€ profit and If finally the Over wins I will have 0.22 € in SBO. So I place the stakes in order to have the most benefit possible in softbooks and nothing in the sharps. Since I do this, my profit increased.
The theory behind value bets is also applied to live events? When it comes to live what is bet365 vs other softies? Sharp?
When bet365 is vs sharps (assians sbo pinacle ibc) is the bet365 soft?
DonkeyKong
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun Aug 31, 2014 5:57 pm

Why is this better to do when sharps have odds of >2?

Also in the case when you get an arb with pinny for example, sometimes you bet the soft book first and pinny changed their line to something lower. What if it is not an arb any more? Are you still sure your soft books bet is +EV? Or does pinny just change it because of volumes they are getting?
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:36 pm

DonkeyKong wrote: Also in the case when you get an arb with pinny for example, sometimes you bet the soft book first and pinny changed their line to something lower. What if it is not an arb any more? Are you still sure your soft books bet is +EV? Or does pinny just change it because of volumes they are getting?
No, you propably you don't have a valuebet anymore, because to what is generaly accepted closing odds represent true probabilites best. (Better said you never had an value bet, but there was now better information available). Those cases should middle out with cases where pinny lines change into other direction, and your now you bet becomes an even bigger value bet. Of course, if you somehow can statistically signifcant predict line movements (and so have a better model of true probabilities) you should apply a different strategy. 
bluedragon
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:05 am

After taking value bets and recording for over a year, my ROI was higher with level staking than with staking according to win amounts.
Is this a bad way of valuebetting or do I still have an edge here?

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