Value betting guide.

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
Racerman
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:39 am

I use flat stakes to. It gives about 20% better result than using "to win" stakes for me.
But since July it has not been very good with valuebetting.
Have you noticed this to?
bluedragon
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:09 am

Ah not really, ive had 4  consecutive good months, but Im taking only soccer moneylines, overs and unders and handicap, but 80% of the bets are on moneylines, no any other sport
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun Sep 28, 2014 1:24 pm

Do you guys value bet soccer arbs when they are arbs with SBO and the US sports when they are arbs with Pinny? I feel like I shouldn't be value betting soccer when it is an arb with pinny since their lines there aren't as sharp as SBO.

Also, do you make sure for the result of every value bet you have made? It seems time consuming to do this, maybe I don't have to do this when I just valuebet the reputable books like bet365, ladbrokes, WH, unibet?
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:05 am

Sorry to dig up this old post again but I have noticed something lately.

Some of the arbs provided by my alert service are caused by the pinnacle price.

So if we chose to bet the soft bookie side everytime, even when the arb was created by the odd movement at pinnacle, are we really betting on the value side?

This is mostly on secondary markets and secondary sports like handball where Pinnacle does not have very high limits (500€ max)

So here's the question, when a price movement at pinnacle creates several arb opportunities (more than 10) can we assume that the pinnacle side is the value side?

Example: Saba Qom - Malavan 1X2

Pinnacle has Malavan at 5.44 when SBObet for example has them at 3.9

This Pinnacle odd is the course of 16 arbs, even without the Sbobet comparison was it safe to assume it wxas a valuebet?
Last edited by Porthugz on Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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arbusers
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:20 am

No,
The value remains in the softbooks. Pinnacle reflects the real price while softbooks are giving you the real edge.
If you are getting a value bet in more than 1 market, it is wise not to take all (16 in your example) bets, but choose the one with the highest possible value. You will understand the ''right'' bet from your alert service. Usually it is the biggest arb.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:28 am

So in this example we have Sbobet who are notoriously very sharp on soccer, who have the outcome at 3.9 while Pinnacle at 5.44. Even with the juice differential on 1X2 I find it hard to believe that SBO juices that much on the outsider don't you think?
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:39 am

Porthugz wrote: So in this example we have Sbobet who are notoriously very sharp on soccer, who have the outcome at 3.9 while Pinnacle at 5.44. Even with the juice differential on 1X2 I find it hard to believe that SBO juices that much on the outsider don't you think?
This is a pulp obviously. One out of these 2 will in the end void your bet.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:36 pm

so is it safe to use pnny as a reference?

lets say if pinny has a basketball O/U 150 at 1.94 - 1.94 this would be considered the correct line in terms of probability? so the correct odds without juice would be 2.0 - 2.0? meaning if we find this O/U 150 at 2.1 somewhere, this would be considered a value bet?
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:33 am

so is it safe to use pnny as a reference?

Many valuebet sites use Betfair as a reference for value bets(If softbooks odds are bigger than Betfairs there should be value). Their argument for using Betfair as reference for value is that Betfair is largest marketplace. Efficient market theory states the bigger the market  means more efficient market since all information to affect the price is already on prices/odds. Well this could be true with Betfairs most traded markets but I think niche markets are not so effective. I have delved with value bets and trading so far and little bit with arbing. As I have earlier stated I want to preserve my limits with bookies as long as possible while I am learning betting altogether. So far no limits for me  ;D
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arbusers
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Dec 11, 2014 4:46 am

I think I explained everything in the most simple way possible in my first posts.
The most simple idea is the one easily implemented and the one that brings the profit.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:04 pm

Just for me, softbook needs to be checked first and start looking from there.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:05 am

What yield is expected if you make valuebetting only with 6%+ arbs? I am guessing minimum 20%.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:17 am

If you want to make value betting, I suggest you to focus only on niche markets such as NBA 1st Half Over/Under, Chinese Basket, Canada Soccer League.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Feb 25, 2015 5:52 pm

Arbusers wrote: I think I explained everything in the most simple way possible in my first posts.
The most simple idea is the one easily implemented and the one that brings the profit.
Yes i actually did this before i read it in this forum.I was value betting on bet365 and marathon.I did it for a month and a total of 600-700 bets of aorund 5 euro.Did not take anything under 1.5 and over 2.5.
The result was very good at the end -10% ROI.It was very consistent also.Maybe 2 to 1 winning to losing days.
Obviously you can not make valuebets at marathon for over 5-10 euro ,but anyway i think it is working very well.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Mar 04, 2015 8:48 am

I also think it is essential to define an odds scale of which values to leave or take.
I agree to the statement above from Waltherwhite80 - odds of ca. 2,50 would be the limit for my taste...

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