Value betting guide.

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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Buddha

Re: Value betting guide.

Mon May 04, 2015 4:23 am

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: If you want to make value betting, I suggest you to focus only on niche markets such as Canada Soccer League.
Funniest league ever, most fixed league priced on bookmakers to exist. Hope they keep it up next season, easy money. However, can be very tricky, and not as easy as comparing Pin odds with some slow bookmaker odds.
Kalitko
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun May 17, 2015 5:48 pm

Have you considered/tried to diversify only certain percentage of the risk in the sharp? Say, you have 2.4 at unibet and 1.8 at pinnacle for a basketball game - you put 100 on both. Something like a middle solution between value bet and an arb, to say it like that. One advantage of such strategy would be that the mental calculations get a lot easier, thus increasing the reaction speed a little bit.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun May 17, 2015 6:32 pm

Kalitko wrote: Have you considered/tried to diversify only certain percentage of the risk in the sharp? Say, you have 2.4 at unibet and 1.8 at pinnacle for a basketball game - you put 100 on both. Something like a middle solution between value bet and an arb, to say it like that. One advantage of such strategy would be that the mental calculations get a lot easier, thus increasing the reaction speed a little bit.

This is like risking 20 ( net position if Pinnacle bet wins) to win 40 ( net position if soft wins). It's like a straight bet with odds 3.0 instead of 2.4!  What's the catch ? The new stake is much smaller.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Fri Sep 25, 2015 10:02 am

been trying value betting for the last month with low stakes and low limit accounts, after 100bets my roi is 18%. here are two tables the first is bets sorted by sport, how many bets, total stake, total profit and loss and average odds on each sport, the second is sorted by odds in certain catergories. I know this isnt enough bets and id like 1000 to get some serious data, 99% of these bets have been taken from an arb against pinnicle or sbo bet and the other 1% taken from betfair or matchbook. I have been taking mixed rules tennis with the theory of if pinny are offering 2 on a player to win and paddypower are offering 2.3 the mixed rules on retirement is a lesser force than the size of the value on offer if that makes sense. any feedback and tips would be much appreciated as I think this will be the way forward for me looking at how much ive lost at pinnacle this year

tennis  49  £250.00      £48.63  100      19.5
rugby  8  £40.00      £0.55  100      1.4
american football  12  £69.70      £21.00  100      30.1
hockey  3  £15.00      £9.25  100      61.7
baseball  9  £45.00      £13.10  100      29.1
snooker  1  £5.00      £5.50  100      110.0
soccer  18  £90.00      -£2.06  100      -2.3


-2  29  159.7  21 – 6 – 2  59.86  100  37.5
2 – 2.49  49  245.5  19 – 27 – 3  -21.77  100  -8.9
2.5 – 2.99  15  75  8 – 7 – 0  30.01  100  40.0
3 – 4  7  £32.50  4 – 3 – 0  £27.87  100  85.8
      512.7  52 – 43 – 5  95.97  100  18.7
Virtuoz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:16 pm

Hi guys.

I can share my statistic too. I started to store my value bets history from Nov,2013. (collected more than 30 000 value bets)
My value bet history on russian (I am from Ukraine :) ), but I can translate and it's not important for analyze.
Important that we have real data.
Now I created app to analisis my stat.
Couple of screen shots:

We can work together on the best strategy for value betting. Please PM to me.

P.S. How I can add pictures here?? ((( Help
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Last edited by Virtuoz on Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Virtuoz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:21 pm

Found attachments link :):)
Second screen-shot:
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Virtuoz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:22 pm

And last one:
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Last edited by Virtuoz on Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:03 pm

Thank you Virtuoz. You have a very big sample. could you say some more about your strategy, the bookmakers that you use etc?
Virtuoz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:57 am

Of course.

Bookies: pinn\sbo VS marathonbet\panbet
I use arbs from 0% to 1%
And I make advanced analyse based on existing stats.
Virtuoz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:06 am

Some additional stats.
All stats calculated for amount per stake = 20 USD

By day of week:
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Virtuoz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:10 am

By months:
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Virtuoz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:15 am

I shared my stats and strategy because I want to find people who want to create more profitable strategy.
No the limits of improvements :):)
ma
marva

Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Oct 01, 2015 9:15 am

Nice stats!

Many bets you make there, I can make not more then around 100 a week due limiting from softbooks/or they not accept people from my country.
With your numbers you have probably the choice from many more soft books then I have.

What do you use to track your bets?
Virtuoz
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:08 am

I use my own system.
It's a small database and I created BI reports in QlikSense for analyzing.
arbbetting
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:11 am

Virtuoz wrote: Of course.

Bookies: pinn\sbo VS marathonbet\panbet
I use arbs from 0% to 1%
And I make advanced analyse based on existing stats.
why not higher arbs?

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