Arbusers

Hello arbusers!Congrats for this forum, helped me a lot on my way to value betting.Just wanted to share some thoughts and start a conversation about live value betting in 2024.I do live value betting the last years and its going pretty good so far, except last year and the beginning of this year.I mainly focus finding value on late goals where a team has motivation and then some late cards, but i think the live value betting game has evolved the last year and i "stayed behind".whats your opinion and in which markets do you focus on?is pre game value betting something that i should put in my strategy?

dinas94 wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:58 am

Hello arbusers!Congrats for this forum, helped me a lot on my way to value betting.Just wanted to share some thoughts and start a conversation about live value betting in 2024.I do live value betting the last years and its going pretty good so far, except last year and the beginning of this year.I mainly focus finding value on late goals where a team has motivation and then some late cards, but i think the live value betting game has evolved the last year and i "stayed behind".whats your opinion and in which markets do you focus on?is pre game value betting something that i should put in my strategy?

Hiya Dinas94,

You mentioned the goals market (perhaps Asian Handicaps at some stage), you could try working on your own custom-made multivariate Poisson or Weibull evolution, or something completely new on your end. Try, test and improve further - that's an exhausting process for some people.
The cards market is a much more complex one.

You ask for the pre-match value vs live-value comparison, the main goal in all kinds of markets at all points of the timeline should be for the caught odds on your part to be generous compared to your own generated fair odds, handling your own Kelly Criterion modification for the placed market positions etc.

I wish you success!