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Value betting on both ways

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
Cozetti
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Re: Value betting on both ways

Mon Aug 23, 2021 5:05 am

blizard wrote: its prety simple logic to make mistake , and checked  while building it ... but cant be 100% with this things,

The problem in my test scenario is that is very agresive after any winning streak to immedietly high the bet to reach 1%  ... but on any loosing streak does not lower the bet , meaning practicaly you play with more that 1% many times and never with less.

Still i think is  realistic ,,, after winnings we bet more or spend some money , and then never lower the bet amount in 1% again  according to our bank

Here is the source on apple script (in mac you just run it from script editor) and the language is very basic to understand , athought im beginer and messy  ... but anyone knows a bit can probably check it easy .
1) What about a fixed amount, like 1 euro, always. No matter the size of your bank.
2) How do you get that simulated results, i mean, besides the program, are you using some data from a specific league?
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blizard
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Re: Value betting on both ways

Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:53 am

Cozetti wrote: 1) What about a fixed amount, like 1 euro, always. No matter the size of your bank.
2) How do you get that simulated results, i mean, besides the program, are you using some data from a specific league?
Fixed 1% beting  is safe ....  so when your bank gets bigger because of profits will get even safer and makes sence to bet more and take more advantage of value betting ... this i try to emulate.

For fixed 1% betting,  about 20 out of 1000 people lost all the bank , 2% .
Maybe because all the risk is at start , its similar in danger to adjustable 1% betting  that gives like 5 times !!! more profits in  my example so its preferable.
(always bet 1% of your current bank , adjusting up and down ,,, min 1 euro )

The big risk (more than 20%) happens when you dont adjust lower the 1% bet after some loss ...
(still gives more than double of profit for that 20% risk in my 18000 bets example)

PS
My program is VERY simple and not using data ...
Basicaly just a ramdomizes that produces 1 or 2 ...  every time its 1 i add 1.04 to the bank, when 2 i take 1 euro .
(this is done 18000 times to simulate the bets, and then all 1000 times to simulate the people)

If bank goes to zero i have a check that remembers, plus some other statistics, and also i can adjust the bet to whatever you want acording to the bank ...
ps if bank is between 200 and 300 , the bet will be go to 3 euros for more profits , if bank goes under 200 , bet will go back to 1 euro for safety  , and  maximized to 20 euros when bank is over 2000 etch.
Last edited by blizard on Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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