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Value betting performance day to day

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VidaBlue
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:00 am

Phoenixking wrote: Thanks for the post man
I am glad you appreciate it. I think having this thread is a great idea so that we can share our daily experiences, inspiring each other. I hope it encourages others to share some specifics as well. I will continue sharing on a regular basis, but if noone else shares, in the end I will probably stop.

I like your approach of doing manual data mining. Services are great, but with the increased number of traders and bots using them based on the same rules, I believe they eventually will be undermining their own significance. In addition, one may think that services are so comprehensive, but still there are so many markets and matches that are not covered by them. Doing manual data mining should make you wonder all the time how value originates and this is a great learning proces, which may lead to discovery of useful patterns. So good luck in your continuous search for value bets. My own search is a combination of services and other methods.
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Phoenixking

Re: Value betting performance day to day

Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:09 pm

VidaBlue wrote:
Phoenixking wrote: Thanks for the post man
I am glad you appreciate it. I think having this thread is a great idea so that we can share our daily experiences, inspiring each other. I hope it encourages others to share some specifics as well. I will continue sharing on a regular basis, but if noone else shares, in the end I will probably stop.

I like your approach of doing manual data mining. Services are great, but with the increased number of traders and bots using them based on the same rules, I believe they eventually will be undermining their own significance. In addition, one may think that services are so comprehensive, but still there are so many markets and matches that are not covered by them. Doing manual data mining should make you wonder all the time how value originates and this is a great learning proces, which may lead to discovery of useful patterns. So good luck in your continuous search for value bets. My own search is a combination of services and other methods.
Truthfully spoken my friend, Its been exactly 10 days since I started my value betting. I learned some really interesting stuff in these 10 days. Even started to find some nice niche in the handicap market. But all is not well, I now know why people find value betting hard mentally say compared to arbing, provided you are skilled enough and crafty, you can pocket in decent cash almost risk free.

Some statistics > 

Starting bank $1000 
Bets placed : 256
Now with $ 1152
ROI :15.20 %

Biggest losing streak :7 Bets , The losing streaks were significantly reduced when I applied some dynamic value filtering and start betting exclusively in a niche market with odds strictly below 2.3 but not below 1.7. This is my sweet spot, and accounts for majority of the ROI.  I also do performance analysis every Saturday to see where there is money loss and gain, and check whether its chance/luck, or a flaw in the filtering method and course correct accordingly.

In short, value betting = Mood swings. lol  But there is hope, lets see how this Saturday turns out.

Thx for the kind reply man.  good luck with your future bets.



   
Last edited by Phoenixking on Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:17 pm

How did you calculate ROI? I would say your ROI was 11,52%
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Phoenixking

Re: Value betting performance day to day

Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:22 pm

ppintaluba wrote: How did you calculate ROI? I would say your ROI was 11,52%
Return  / Bank = 152/1000 = 15.2 %

11.52 % How ? can you please explain ?
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:28 pm

My mistake. I misread your post.
You are right.
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:35 am

Value betting performance week 43 2019 (oct 21-27)



Period
# of bets
ROI


week 43
[align=center]111[/align]
34,9 %


2019
[align=center]3,221[/align]
6.9 %



Top sports (sorted list based upon turnover)


Sport
# of bets
ROI


Basket
[align=center]28[/align]
31.7 %


Soccer
[align=center]23[/align]
23.9 %


Hockey
[align=center]22[/align]
59.8 %


Esports
[align=center]30[/align]
32.0 %



34.9 % ROI! What a week! Even with less turnover than the previous October weeks, this week is still the best profitwise ever. I couldn't bet in the weekend due to family events, but many of the bets were decided here though. Maybe it is a good thing not to bet in the weekends once in a while, reflecting on value betting or simply enjoying life doing other things. I used to get annoyed when not being able to take advantage of Saturday, betting rush hour, but maybe Saturday isn't that important after all. Even though most betting occurs in the weekends, the best prices and best odds on prematch bets may occur during weekdays, before they get adjusted when getting closer to the start of the event. Some weeks ago, we discussed here in the forum, how bet performance may indeed depend on which day of the week this is done. This week all days had positive two-digit ROI except Monday, but it was still positive. This was not a normal week.

The rational part of the brain tries to tune down the joy of this week's profits by claiming that this is by far just due to variance, but maybe it is ok to let the passion take over and celebrate for a little while.

ROI would have been 33.2 % with a simple staking plan, so not much different from my dynamical staking plan. Esports is a bit different however. The staking plan had a positive impact which was also expected since some of the bets are more experimental with lower stakes whereas other markets now have better documented value. The sample size is not sufficient to conclude that there is a high probability for this to be true, but in the coming months this hypothesis will be given closer attention.

    W43 (111) 34.9%    W42 (167 bets) 4,0%    W41 (211 bets) 4,3%    W40 (195 bets) 4,1%    W39 (135 bets) 15,9%    W38 (108 bets) -6,1%    W37 (105 bets) 2,9%    W36 (122 bets) 0,3%    W35 (132 bets) 4,8%    W34 (163 bets) 5,2%    W33 (110 bets) 18,4%    W32 (132 bets) 2,4%    W31 (101 bets) 2,1%    W30 (59 bets) 6,8%    W29 (85 bets) 12,4%    W28 (2 bets) -100%    W27 (6 bets) 39,7%    W26 (31 bets) -4%    W25 (49 bets) 0,4%    W24 (61 bets) -27%    W23 (22 bets) -62,5%    W22 (31 bets) -53,3%    W21 (85 bets) 12,9%    W20 (68 bets) 33,5%    W19 (44 bets) -8,4%    W18 (19 bets) 3,9%    W17 (119 bets) 5,9%    W16 (41 bets) 16,3%    W15 (80 bets) 20,7%    W14 (72 bets) -5,7%    W13 (40 bets) 18,4%    W12 (20 bets) 34,2%    W11 (23 bets) -41,4%    W10 (0 bets) 0%    W9 (0 bets) 0%    W8 (0 bets) 0%    W7 (17 bets) -58,1%    W6 (50 bets) 21,6%    W5 (77 bets) 20,6%    W4 (76 bets) 23,7%    W3 (97 bets) 8,9%    W2 (100 bets) 2,5%    W1 (68 bets) 25,9%
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:15 am

VidaBlue wrote: Value betting performance week 43 2019 (oct 21-27)



Period
# of bets
ROI


week 43
[align=center]111[/align]
34,9 %


2019
[align=center]3,221[/align]
6.9 %



Top sports (sorted list based upon turnover)


Sport
# of bets
ROI


Basket
[align=center]28[/align]
31.7 %


Soccer
[align=center]23[/align]
23.9 %


Hockey
[align=center]22[/align]
59.8 %


Esports
[align=center]30[/align]
32.0 %



34.9 % ROI! What a week! Even with less turnover than the previous October weeks, this week is still the best profitwise ever. I couldn't bet in the weekend due to family events, but many of the bets were decided here though. Maybe it is a good thing not to bet in the weekends once in a while, reflecting on value betting or simply enjoying life doing other things. I used to get annoyed when not being able to take advantage of Saturday, betting rush hour, but maybe Saturday isn't that important after all. Even though most betting occurs in the weekends, the best prices and best odds on prematch bets may occur during weekdays, before they get adjusted when getting closer to the start of the event. Some weeks ago, we discussed here in the forum, how bet performance may indeed depend on which day of the week this is done. This week all days had positive two-digit ROI except Monday, but it was still positive. This was not a normal week.

The rational part of the brain tries to tune down the joy of this week's profits by claiming that this is by far just due to variance, but maybe it is ok to let the passion take over and celebrate for a little while.

ROI would have been 33.2 % with a simple staking plan, so not much different from my dynamical staking plan. Esports is a bit different however. The staking plan had a positive impact which was also expected since some of the bets are more experimental with lower stakes whereas other markets now have better documented value. The sample size is not sufficient to conclude that there is a high probability for this to be true, but in the coming months this hypothesis will be given closer attention.

    W43 (111) 34.9%    W42 (167 bets) 4,0%    W41 (211 bets) 4,3%    W40 (195 bets) 4,1%    W39 (135 bets) 15,9%    W38 (108 bets) -6,1%    W37 (105 bets) 2,9%    W36 (122 bets) 0,3%    W35 (132 bets) 4,8%    W34 (163 bets) 5,2%    W33 (110 bets) 18,4%    W32 (132 bets) 2,4%    W31 (101 bets) 2,1%    W30 (59 bets) 6,8%    W29 (85 bets) 12,4%    W28 (2 bets) -100%    W27 (6 bets) 39,7%    W26 (31 bets) -4%    W25 (49 bets) 0,4%    W24 (61 bets) -27%    W23 (22 bets) -62,5%    W22 (31 bets) -53,3%    W21 (85 bets) 12,9%    W20 (68 bets) 33,5%    W19 (44 bets) -8,4%    W18 (19 bets) 3,9%    W17 (119 bets) 5,9%    W16 (41 bets) 16,3%    W15 (80 bets) 20,7%    W14 (72 bets) -5,7%    W13 (40 bets) 18,4%    W12 (20 bets) 34,2%    W11 (23 bets) -41,4%    W10 (0 bets) 0%    W9 (0 bets) 0%    W8 (0 bets) 0%    W7 (17 bets) -58,1%    W6 (50 bets) 21,6%    W5 (77 bets) 20,6%    W4 (76 bets) 23,7%    W3 (97 bets) 8,9%    W2 (100 bets) 2,5%    W1 (68 bets) 25,9%
Thanks for updates and congrats on your work man !
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:33 pm

VidaBlue wrote: 34.9 % ROI! What a week!
And here is a good question for you and everyone else: Would you lower your stake after a record performance week?
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:32 pm

arbusers wrote: And here is a good question for you and everyone else: Would you lower your stake after a record performance week?
I can think of more reasons to increase the stake than lower it, but it wouldn't be based upon the fact of having a record performance week.
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:10 am

arbusers wrote:
VidaBlue wrote: 34.9 % ROI! What a week!
And here is a good question for you and everyone else: Would you lower your stake after a record performance week?
realy? with just lowering or higering stakes on rulete no one could beat the weal. Are you the one who can?
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:14 am

If you believe that Value Betting is like playing roulette, I suggest you start again from the very basics.
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4lexy4

Re: Value betting performance day to day

Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:14 am

rulete have -2,7% yield (eu style with one 0). My velaubetting  5% advantage.
With lowering or higering stakes you wish to have better yield. With rulete this mean you wish to push your yield to -2,00 lat say, and on valubetting you wish to push your yield to 6%. This is like you wish to predict rulete, diference is only negative yield in rulete. You can move yield up only with stats, to elimante less profitable bets. Lowering and incrising stakes after very bad or very good period, this dabeate belongs only to gamling forums, not to profesional betting forums
Last edited by Guest on Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:31 am

Theoretically speaking the more bets you place the more you go toward expected value. So if you have had a great performance much more than expected value than probability is higher that you start losing so lowering stake may be a good choice. But i think it needs a very careful study to apply this. For example if your expected value monthly is 4% and in the middle of the month you are at 8%. Than i think it would be a good decision to lower stake. I have never put this in practice but theoretically it should work. But i dont think week is an accurate way to measure performance. I prefer number of individual bets.
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:48 am

4lexy4 wrote: Lowering and incrising stakes after very bad or very good period, this dabeate belongs only to gamling forums, not to profesional betting forums
We all know the basic text book answers and noone claims to know the truth. Debates as these are exactly what belong here and the reason for having a forum. Challenging traditional concepts and abstract thinking is ultimately what will separate the smart bettor from the crowd of bettors and bots with fixed instruction sets.
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Re: Value betting performance day to day

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:49 am

Any sharp deviation above the expected ROI should be followed by a lower staking plan. You can't expect a parabolic trend that will continue forever.
Vidablue should be able to calculate 3 things:
A. His longterm ROI,
B. The impact that changes brought to his results.
C. How much to lower his stakes.
A and B might be easy to calculate, C is subjective and no-one could answer it correctly because you can never be sure about future performances. In his shoes, I would lower the stake just by 5%. If the trend continues, I would step up to 10% and so on.

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