Arbusers

nice results, between what do you consider special vb?

esi wrote: nice results, between what do you consider special vb?

It is kind of difficult to estimate EV when leaning against many different sources, betting on trends and patterns, etc. For this reason, the overall observed ROI is a big factor when determining stake size. I do some additional division of this ROI by filtering the sport/bettype and in many cases also bookmaker. Some second line bets in some sports with certain bookmakers have had significantly high ROI over the course of 50+ bets, so for those "special vbs" I add a little more to the stake size. I do the opposite, decrease the stake size, for those lines that have had little or negative ROI.

Hi guys, Was on a bit of sabbatical once I doubled my bank (1000 to 2000). Unfortunately had to pay some bills, now left with a fraction of my bank. Fortunately due to sabbaticals I haven't been limited up until now. 
In the past four months I was able to lay some good foundation  on multiple things (Value bets,Value filtering, Programming,Manual data mining Etc..) Started betting once again from Wednesday.

Week 50 Of 2019
                         
Total bets Placed: 84 Win rate:41% (35)

Soccer: 34 Win rate : 44%(15)

Hockey: 35 Win rate: 45%(16)

Basketball: 14 Win rate: 28%(4)

Tennis: 1 Win rate(0)

Weekly ROI -1.19%

I was actually on a massive win streak with soccer and Ice hockey. Identified perfect value filtered odds for long term profit, Ignored losing markets(Draw). Double digit ROI on Wednesday,Thursday, Friday was good as well.
I usually bet on a fixed timing everyday, This automatically filters the fixtures that don't get lot of sharp action. I changed my schedule for Saturday and Sunday, because I saw so many fixtures that I wouldn't be able to bet If I started on my usual time. Losing streaks with hockey, Soccer. I haven't figured out the range (Value filtered Odds) for basketball that would net me long term profit hence pathetic win rate. All bets were placed on bet356 with pinny as reference.(Gonna take market average as reference as well from this week)   

Thank you for sharing Phoenixking.

With an ROI close to zero and average win rates around 40%, I suppose your average odds are around 2.5. Is that correct?

So you schedule your time for betting. I am in doubt what you mean about not being able to bet. Does it mean that certain games are simply out of reach because you're not available when those markets are open? Or does it mean that you're not present to strike when VALUE occurs?

I like the discussion about which days and hours are good for betting. I used to think that it would all be proportional to the amount of games being played, which would mean 50% of a sport bettor's activity should be concentrated on Saturdays. However, I recently realized, that at least for my case doing pre-match betting, Tuesday to Friday is often even better, because that's where many bookmakers launch their markets for the weekend games. This revelation has been great for me, so I don't feel I am missing out so much on those Saturdays anymore, which are usually heavily packed with family activities. With regards to which hours are better for betting, does anyone have an opinion about this? I usually try to be present at morning 7-9 and in the afternoon 15-17 (central european time) during weekdays. In weekends I think 9-15 on Saturdays and 9-11 on Sundays have much activity and value opportunities.

It is difficult to say which hours are better for betting. The number of visitors on our forum per hour is a good indicator of what our members believe. Here are some facts:
1. We are noticing a dramatic loss of traffic right before the kick off of the UK games on Saturdays (15.00 GMT). I believe this is because the UK markets and the number of games is a key factor of Saturday's action. I suppose that members are taking a short time-out, even a quick nap, to get some strength to continue until the night with the Spanish and possibly the South American markets. We regain this traffic 2 hours later.
2. We are noticing a dramatic loss of traffic right before the kick off of the Champions League games. This time I believe they are doing it in order to enjoy the games. Guess what, when CL games are finished, we re-gain that traffic, even though it is very late at night.
3. As for Thursdays nights with the Europa League games, again, we notice 2 waves of traffic loss, according to kick off times and then we regain this traffic later at night.

Being a contrarian, these facts make me believe that there are plenty of chances to bet during these 2 hours time out of the UK markets, where competitors are taking a nap, but not during CL and EL nights, simply because the only following chance is the NBA.

One should take into account the time difference. Members from the far east are not able to bet on Spanish markets. Members from eastern Europe and Greece are not able to bet on NBA, while UK members with an advantage of 2 hours are able to beat NBA. Notice that basketball is not popular in the UK, while it is popular in Greece.

VidaBlue wrote: Thank you for sharing Phoenixking.

With an ROI close to zero and average win rates around 40%, I suppose your average odds are around 2.5. Is that correct?

So you schedule your time for betting. I am in doubt what you mean about not being able to bet. Does it mean that certain games are simply out of reach because you're not available when those markets are open? Or does it mean that you're not present to strike when VALUE occurs?

I like the discussion about which days and hours are good for betting. I used to think that it would all be proportional to the amount of games being played, which would mean 50% of a sport bettor's activity should be concentrated on Saturdays. However, I recently realized, that at least for my case doing pre-match betting, Tuesday to Friday is often even better, because that's where many bookmakers launch their markets for the weekend games. This revelation has been great for me, so I don't feel I am missing out so much on those Saturdays anymore, which are usually heavily packed with family activities. With regards to which hours are better for betting, does anyone have an opinion about this? I usually try to be present at morning 7-9 and in the afternoon 15-17 (central european time) during weekdays. In weekends I think 9-15 on Saturdays and 9-11 on Sundays have much activity and value opportunities.

Hi bro, Avg odds> Soccer: 2.42 , Hockey: 2.39, Basketball : 2.44, Tennis :3.33. Yes,I have scheduled my betting times. As per my case, timing, value filtering and stake size are the three most important factors when it comes to my win rate and ROI. 

I was testing around different timings when it comes to betting, and found that betting on fixtures that show up on particular time frames represent actual value. Perhaps it has do with majority of these fixtures are extremely popular events airing on well sought after shifts on Tv, With lots of information available for the sharps to actually find value(The fixtures from top 5 leagues and others). And I finally Identified that time frame. Its 11 PM to 7 AM for +8GMT.

I was at 1400 bank with 3 months of betting next 20 days my bank hit 2000. Once had 10 days straight positive ROI. Regarding other fixtures that show up during other time frames, I think even if you find value in these fixtures it might not be actual value from sharps finding value with exclusive information.  Once I found out I had good win rate and ROI on that particular time frame. I never reverted until past sat and sun.
 
I think the negative ROI this week was one hundred percent because of the shift in timing, betting on dirty leagues,where value actually doesn't represent value.

Bit of a experimental week, I was wondering what was so special about that time frame, as usual its a mixture of many factors.

I only bet on 1 x 2 market, But not the draw market. I checked all the outcome of my fixtures one by one. As it would seem most of the leagues with high draws happens before or after that time slot.(Russian Hockey, Sweden Hockey,USA Hockey league etc). If these draws can ruin my win rate and can be a frequent outcome of many fixtures, it has value. Hence I experimented with that market this week.   

Number of bets Placed (133) Win rate (35%) (47)

Soccer (41) Win rate (37%) (15)

Hockey (87) Win rate (33%) (29)

Basketball (4) Win rate (50%) (2)

Weekly ROI : +1.40%   

I narrowed down a particular range of odds that these draws were occurring and top leagues where draws were common, Unfortunately the market has low liquidity, is extremely hard to predict, and not profitable in the long run.