Value betting questions

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
kustef
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Mar 27, 2014 2:15 pm

isservilles wrote: aulways NO website for valuebets?
try to find , several links on this forum are available
kustef
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Mar 27, 2014 9:41 pm

i see them on mainpage
kustef
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:52 am

isservilles wrote:
kustef wrote: i see them on mainpage
bmbets,oddsportal we can see valuebets but only high prices(we will loose money)
where are link's to websites with  low prices?<2
thank's
how can you lose money if you betting value?
makarid
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:05 pm

I want to ask a question about value bet.How often the odds of a value bet changes?How much is the propabilitie that a value bet will be a surebet.For exaple if we find a value bet and place 100 euro on it,is there a change to change the odds to our favors and have a surebet?
kustef
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Apr 02, 2014 9:02 pm

makarid wrote: I want to ask a question about value bet.How often the odds of a value bet changes?How much is the propabilitie that a value bet will be a surebet.For exaple if we find a value bet and place 100 euro on it,is there a change to change the odds to our favors and have a surebet?
if you place surebet from valuebet you are loosing money..
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:39 am

Can you plz be more specific about the losiing money.Is this a sure thing?There is no way that the odds of a value bet will drop?
I am thinking about playing parlay surebets(with 2 matches) the one will be a surebet and the other with be value bet.So is there a change this technick will work?This can only work if there is a 80% change that the value bets dropping their odds(generally).Is that possible?

Thanks a lot for your response!
Last edited by makarid on Thu Apr 03, 2014 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Apr 03, 2014 1:07 pm

I think Kustef means that if you place value bets you will win more, in the long term....  more than if you place surebets (using these value bets).
It depends if there's true value in these bets. You can win more with these value bets, but if you find a surebet you know you will win for sure. So it's up to you to decide if you want more risk and let the value bets run, or place surebets and win, maybe less, but without risk.
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makarid
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Apr 03, 2014 2:19 pm

OK i understand this.But what about my other question,is this possible?
kustef
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Apr 04, 2014 7:36 am

makarid wrote: OK i understand this.But what about my other question,is this possible?
This is not reply to your question but inspiration into your brain.
its just math nothing else. Dont look at tables form etc.. Also if you have a surebet over / under  for example with odds on ov2.1(fox example BAH) and un1.95(SBO)  with stake  50eur on higher odds your total stake will be 103.85 eur and your profit 1.15eur. But when you place just odd 2.1 (value odd) your stake will be 50 eur and you should make 2.5 eur on it, because real probability of winning of this odd is 50% (yes we have odd 2.1 but the true is 2) so you win every second time with 2.1 . So you make 2.5 eur on 50 eur bet and on 100 eur bet you make 5 eur and its around 4.3 more than you make by surebets (Also if you get void there is no serious damage) You should look on value in this way.

You should try to do it and test it and you will see what happen. There is some methods how to calculate value bet,  but me and i think many people here couting with asian bookmakers and betfair. Check the betfair and if you see that someone want odds(available lay) on Chelsea 1.33 and you can get odds 1.39 you have a great value. etc You can place this odds single or parlay and i guarantee you profit Also with parlay betting your value increase with every fold in your parlay ticket.

If you are begginer start with single , than start parlay (just my advice) and of course DONT GAMBLE
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:42 pm

Parlays have no place in value betting strategies. The value is the same whether you make a parlay or straight bets, the only difference is that parlaying will add a huge amount of variance, which is exactly what you don't want.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Apr 05, 2014 9:16 am

A value bet appears over at softie S 2,1 and under at sbo 1.95 ... however i do not bet at this time ... after an hour the odd at softie shifts to higher price lets say 2.37 but no arb appears at this price. is it a good bet backing the over at 2.37 given that a vallue bettor would happily back it at 2.1?? In live events this very common ...all you need to do is wait 3,4,5 minutes.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Apr 05, 2014 12:31 pm

The biggest problem of value betting is,

You can't know if it's a valuebet before you see closing line.

For example, you picked Aston Villa at 1,90 and Wigan +0,50 at 2,25 in the morning. After 7-8 hours, Aston Villa odds start to drift, increasing to 2,10. This time, you find Wigan available at 2,05 in your soft book. The previous bet you picked (Aston) is no longer value. The valuebet is Wign +0,50 now.

If you're curious about which one is the real value bet, the answer is simple. The later line movement is more efficient. Therefore, the real value bet here is Wigan +0,50. But what if you picked Aston early? That's a problem in valuebetting. Doesn't happen all the time but sometimes it happens..
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Apr 05, 2014 1:42 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: The biggest problem of value betting is,

You can't know if it's a valuebet before you see closing line.

For example, you picked Aston Villa at 1,90 and Wigan +0,50 at 2,25 in the morning. After 7-8 hours, Aston Villa odds start to drift, increasing to 2,10. This time, you find Wigan available at 2,05 in your soft book. The previous bet you picked (Aston) is no longer value. The valuebet is Wign +0,50 now.

If you're curious about which one is the real value bet, the answer is simple. The later line movement is more efficient. Therefore, the real value bet here is Wigan +0,50. But what if you picked Aston early? That's a problem in valuebetting. Doesn't happen all the time but sometimes it happens..
I think this is part of value betting and not a big problem because odds may move on your favour too....Maybe considering the value bet as a trade and takeing a closing line so you can just sell your bet may be a solution.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Apr 05, 2014 2:21 pm

You should only care about it being a value bet at the present time, further odds movement are irrelevant to the strategy and will happen both ways.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:43 pm

anormal1992 wrote:
Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: The biggest problem of value betting is,

You can't know if it's a valuebet before you see closing line.

For example, you picked Aston Villa at 1,90 and Wigan +0,50 at 2,25 in the morning. After 7-8 hours, Aston Villa odds start to drift, increasing to 2,10. This time, you find Wigan available at 2,05 in your soft book. The previous bet you picked (Aston) is no longer value. The valuebet is Wign +0,50 now.

If you're curious about which one is the real value bet, the answer is simple. The later line movement is more efficient. Therefore, the real value bet here is Wigan +0,50. But what if you picked Aston early? That's a problem in valuebetting. Doesn't happen all the time but sometimes it happens..
I think this is part of value betting and not a big problem because odds may move on your favour too....Maybe considering the value bet as a trade and takeing a closing line so you can just sell your bet may be a solution.
If odds move in your favor, it doesn't matter since you're making valuebet. If you hedge your bet then it's not called value betting, it's called arbing.
cristi13 wrote: You should only care about it being a value bet at the present time, further odds movement are irrelevant to the strategy and will happen both ways.
Cristi, you can't know if it's a valuebet before you see the closing line. Therefore, you must focus beating closing line. If you want to make profit over long haul, you must bet in Money Way direction. Let's say you bet Olympiakos at 1,60 few days ago and made a %2 arb. The real value was on Gianni today. And the major reason you make profit is not because you pick odds few ticks higher, you make profit because you're betting in Money Way Direction; the Pinnacle Lean.

Pinnacle Lean wins.

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