Value betting questions

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
Racerman
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:52 pm

I've got 5,979% ROI with about 15 000 bets.
18% is way to high. It could happend one month but not in the long run.

My best month is 16,03% and the worst is -6,39% so you have to be prepared to deal with some up and downs when valuebetting.
testez
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:28 pm

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Last edited by testez on Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:35 pm

raizzak wrote: we mean yield right? profit/total amount wagered? In 1500+ bets it is more like 8.5% for me
2. be careful with your staking, 1% is way to much. the variance can be huge and a a bad streak can really ruin your BR(ive experienced this).
In most of the cases 1% is perfectly fine or even too safe. I've did a theoritical research before i started with 5% edge on the fair price the max possible losing streak is 14 losers it is mathematicely impossible to make a bigger one
it doesnt have to be in a row. its enough to have a longer period of losing days. and it will happen.
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:40 pm

Racerman wrote: I've got 5,979% ROI with about 15 000 bets.
18% is way to high. It could happend one month but not in the long run.

My best month is 16,03% and the worst is -6,39% so you have to be prepared to deal with some up and downs when valuebetting.
15k starts to look like a solid DB. good job!.
thats a 2 years work? what % arb are u taking >1%?  >2%?
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:51 am

it doesnt have to be in a row. its enough to have a longer period of losing days. and it will happen.
well obviously it hasn't have to be, except maybe on very high odds 4+ otherwise it will not in a way to hurt your bankroll
Racerman wrote: I've got 5,979% ROI with about 15 000 bets.
18% is way to high. It could happend one month but not in the long run.

My best month is 16,03% and the worst is -6,39% so you have to be prepared to deal with some up and downs when valuebetting.
i would kill for those stats :P
Last edited by raizzak on Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
Don't speak for something you have no clue.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Sep 26, 2015 7:32 am

try to understand what that loss means (-6.39% in Racermans case) regarding your BR
Racerman
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Sep 26, 2015 8:21 am

15k starts to look like a solid DB. good job!.
thats a 2 years work? what % arb are u taking >1%?  >2%?
Yes, about 2 years. I wish I started earlier. The ROI has dropped from 10-12% from start to 6% now. The softs are getting sharper it seems.
try to understand what that loss means (-6.39% in Racermans case) regarding your BR
Yeah, you have to just hope that the next month you win it back. It take some guts.  :)
i would kill for those stats :P
You don't have to kill anyone. Everything is for sale at the right price as they say on Wall Street.  ;)
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Sep 26, 2015 8:28 am

are u taking 1% and up right?
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Sep 26, 2015 8:34 am

testez wrote: are u taking 1% and up right?
Yes, about 1% and up.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:09 am

thanks everyone, at the minute as im still experimenting im not even staking anything closte to 1% my bank roll is around 13k and im using £5-£10 per value bet so not even close, racerman thats helpful mate thankyou, im starting to find american sports the most profitable are you finding the same after that many bets? at the min im taking anything above 2, perhaps i should drop that to anything above 1?
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:11 am

are you just using pinnacle as your base, if you can get the arb at matchbook, betfair or sbo but pinnacle dont offer the market would you place that? also im guessing if an arb can be made using matchbook but pinnacles odds are lower and wont make a 1% arb im guessing that doesnt count as a value bet?
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:51 am

davidelliott52 wrote: are you just using pinnacle as your base, if you can get the arb at matchbook, betfair or sbo but pinnacle dont offer the market would you place that? also im guessing if an arb can be made using matchbook but pinnacles odds are lower and wont make a 1% arb im guessing that doesnt count as a value bet?
Im using Pinny and SBO. But if I find something with MB or Betfair I'll take that too.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:17 pm

this week placed 50 bets exactly and made a more reasonable 1.84% return, kind of pleased to bring my average return down a little bit
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:14 pm

I read on two different websites that multiplying value bets will increase profit even more. Until now I was pretty sure that multi bets (even multi bets including value bets only) is what bookies like most and won't give bettor any advantage but Im consufed atm. Any opinions please?
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:49 am

AlexNotman1 wrote: I read on two different websites that multiplying value bets will increase profit even more. Until now I was pretty sure that multi bets (even multi bets including value bets only) is what bookies like most and won't give bettor any advantage but Im consufed atm. Any opinions please?
If you have 2.1 odds and real odds for that is 2 you have value 5% and if you have 2 matches you have 2.1x2.1=4.41 and real odds is 4 so value on multiple is 10%

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