Value betting questions

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:07 am

Yes but you've got less chance to land multi bet so you need to add some calculations into it. That's why Im not sure about it. If you bet on single value its simple, lets say 5% or whatever if lands. But if you bet on double chance that it lands isnt the same. So as you said 10% but where is calculation considering less chance to land this double?
antemartic
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:18 pm

AlexNotman1 wrote: Yes but you've got less chance to land multi bet so you need to add some calculations into it. That's why Im not sure about it. If you bet on single value its simple, lets say 5% or whatever if lands. But if you bet on double chance that it lands isnt the same. So as you said 10% but where is calculation considering less chance to land this double?
There is no calculation. double should hit one of four times and single one of 2 times.Double have more value but better way to go is to bet on singles. Because you can wager more from your bank to odds 2.1 than  on odds 4.41. and if bet singles you have 2 bets here.
Last edited by antemartic on Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
De Graaf
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:16 pm

AlexNotman1 wrote: I read on two different websites that multiplying value bets will increase profit even more. Until now I was pretty sure that multi bets (even multi bets including value bets only) is what bookies like most and won't give bettor any advantage but Im consufed atm. Any opinions please?
Multi bets that don't include value bets are favored by bookies, since their (bookie) advantage increases then, per Antemartic calculations above, just the opposite direction.
As to the calculations necessary to adjust to doubles or trebles which you mentioned, you may need to adjust stake. This is because of the biggest headache with doubles which is the psychological factor. Most of your days will be negative, you will lose money regularly which takes a toll. (Yet come out slightly on top eventually, if you do it right) .
Trebles on not so short odds is just manly.
As to the stakes, you should be conservative to begin with, as mentioned before by numerous posters, even more so when doing combos.


Edit: It was mentioned just before that you can go 14 consecutive misses with singles. The biggest reported consecutive black(or red)(50/50) in a casino is in the high twenties, If I recall.
If you do doubles on 4 odds and above you expect this number to go higher. More importantly , the frequency of small consecutive w/l patterns changes, you will see a handful of losses more regularly.
Last edited by De Graaf on Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting questions

Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:27 pm

Betting on doubles is like placing two single bets where you re-invest the winnings from the first bet, in case you win, to the second bet. That means you need to reduce staking in order to avoid over-betting. In case the first bet looses you don't get the chance to place the second bet at all. It is not the best strategy.
Betting on singles allows you to choose the right amount to stake for each bet individualy and is a better choice.
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Jan 14, 2016 5:27 pm

As far as I know every 0.02 edge over closing line = 1% yield. Read that many times. Lets say I make 0.06 in average in long run, so it's 3% in yield. I read once or twice that I should multiply my yield x2 to find out what would be my profit. Is that correct? Cause Im bit confused atm.
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:00 pm

Could you share what was your longest losing streak? I keep records of some of my bets on oddsportal and last 450 bets Im 20 untis down. Must be unlucky picking more losing ones there cause when I bet for real I havent experienced that long streak. I'm not surprised at all, I realize it's possible, just wondering - if you've got 3-6% edge - how this reflect in variance, whats the longest losing streak after I can expect recovering pretty quick?

I considered increasing my stake after extreme bad (but short) streak. Until now my stats shows this can work. Most of my bets are 1.8-2.5 range. I don't go over 3s, to avoid long losing streaks. Last week I had a streak when for 34 bets I won just 8 times. After that I recovered extreme quick, what surprised me: 25 bets and 20 of them won. Sample is still too low to draw any conclusion but can't wait for bigger one to find out if increasing stake after extreme bad losing streak (just for some bets) will work every time.
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:04 pm

AlexNotman1 wrote: Could you share what was your longest losing streak? I keep records of some of my bets on oddsportal and last 450 bets Im 20 untis down. Must be unlucky picking more losing ones there cause when I bet for real I havent experienced that long streak. I'm not surprised at all, I realize it's possible, just wondering - if you've got 3-6% edge - how this reflect in variance, whats the longest losing streak after I can expect recovering pretty quick?

I considered increasing my stake after extreme bad (but short) streak. Until now my stats shows this can work. Most of my bets are 1.8-2.5 range. I don't go over 3s, to avoid long losing streaks. Last week I had a streak when for 34 bets I won just 8 times. After that I recovered extreme quick, what surprised me: 25 bets and 20 of them won. Sample is still too low to draw any conclusion but can't wait for bigger one to find out if increasing stake after extreme bad losing streak (just for some bets) will work every time.
after 450 bets with odds 1.8+ you are losing 20 units? what is you avarage stakes? because i think that something is wrong.. Can you post me example of your value bet?
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:14 pm

What's the difference what's my average stake? This has nothing to do with number of winning/losing bets. I stake flat.
Last edited by AlexNotman1 on Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:22 pm

after 450 bets with odds 1.8+ you are losing 20 units? what is you avarage stakes? because i think that something is wrong.. Can you post me example of your value bet?
Start Betburger and pick anything having decent % comparing to BF/Pinnacle and you will get what bets I take. I used to take bets which at the moment of betting are higher at least 0.04-0.05 than Lay on BF. Lately started picking bets comparing to Pinnacle as well.

My stats for value bets:
http://s17.postimg.org/lp1qbi233/Przechwytywanie.jpg

Since I started keeping detailed statistics and increased stake I placed around 1350 bets and made +51 units which is 3.77%. Was better before but Im still happy with nearly 4%.
Last edited by AlexNotman1 on Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:21 pm

AlexNotman1 wrote: I considered increasing my stake after extreme bad (but short) streak. Until now my stats shows this can work. Most of my bets are 1.8-2.5 range. I don't go over 3s, to avoid long losing streaks. Last week I had a streak when for 34 bets I won just 8 times. After that I recovered extreme quick, what surprised me: 25 bets and 20 of them won. Sample is still too low to draw any conclusion but can't wait for bigger one to find out if increasing stake after extreme bad losing streak (just for some bets) will work every time.
You should not increase stake in this circumstances. When your bankroll shrinks (8/34), you decrease stake. This is because your stake is a percentage of your bankroll. You'll get overexposed and go bust otherwise.
"After extreme bad losing streak"  is a retrospective statement. Can't know that in advance. 
Could you share a link or point me to a place where 0.02 = 1%?
Thanks and regards

Edit: Unless your br is too large, in which case I made a useless post. Nonetheless , the above should be true in principle, as far as I can tell.
Edit 2: Thanks for the video. It was a useless post. :D
Edit: And thanks to introducing me to Justin's channel, I haven't thought of that. Does Ganchrow have one as well?
Last edited by De Graaf on Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:16 pm

phpBB [video]


This is justin7 moderator from sbr forum. Watch from 6.00 if you got no time.

I played roulette for half of my life and Im familiar with standard deviation. If my stats will show that Im down to -3rd standard deviation or even close I will double my stake no matter what. Cause at that point there is extreme high chance that I will start recovering immediately. But this is subject for.another topic.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:33 pm

AlexNotman1 wrote: If my stats will show that Im down to -3rd standard deviation or even close I will double my stake no matter what. Cause at that point there is extreme high chance that I will start recovering immediately. But this is subject for.another topic.
That is a very common misconception amongst losing players. So common, it even got it's own Wikipedia article.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Despite this misconception I'd also advice you to stop playing Roulette since essentially the only way you can win there is cheating.
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:51 pm

AlexNotman1 wrote:
phpBB [video]


This is justin7 moderator from sbr forum. Watch from 6.00 if you got no time.

I played roulette for half of my life and Im familiar with standard deviation. If my stats will show that Im down to -3rd standard deviation or even close I will double my stake no matter what. Cause at that point there is extreme high chance that I will start recovering immediately. But this is subject for.another topic.
So you and guy in video think if beat closing line you will win???? I can tell you beat closing line don't mean you will win. Here is why?
Bookmakers when go out with their odds and when their odds are 1.95 for home and 1.95 for away team they don't care is that percentage 50-50% for result. They want 50-50% money on both side. And for example when bettors start taking home side odds start dropping peoples see it's dropping they wager more on it and it drop more so bookmaker need money on other side and it drop more. Odds become unrealistic and away team has big value. On oddsportal I take that picks where odds grow from all bookies that was planed to be my video. But one guy told me thats from bookmakers which can't be used because fast limiting and low limits. there was roi 8% so after that I taking odds just from pinnacle and asians and there was positive roi with more than 1000 picks. So closing line is not what peoples say about it. Prove for that is this. I'm betting just on tennis and when tennis season was over I start value betting on everything. Just pinnacle and other bookies on all sports and asians and other just soccer. I was taking all possitive arbs that mean 0% or over. If pinn give odds 1.95 other bookies need give 2.06 to be 0%. that mean value here is 3%. and for example 3% arb mean soft need to give 2.18 odds. thats value 9%. But this is far away from what will you get. Just because pinn and asian odds become unrealistic when money come on one side. 
Last edited by antemartic on Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting questions

Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:37 pm

Pete wrote:
AlexNotman1 wrote: If my stats will show that Im down to -3rd standard deviation or even close I will double my stake no matter what. Cause at that point there is extreme high chance that I will start recovering immediately. But this is subject for.another topic.
That is a very common misconception amongst losing players. So common, it even got it's own Wikipedia article.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Despite this misconception I'd also advice you to stop playing Roulette since essentially the only way you can win there is cheating.
It's a simple misunderstanding. It may be useful for Alex's post to not get disregarded. To use the wiki link:
If in a coin toss experiment, first four throws are heads, this by no means increases the likeness of the fifth toss to be tails. This is the fallacy.
What Alex is suggesting that in a coin toss experiment of a 1000 throws the first 100 came 80 heads and 20 tails. He is a tails guy and he is losing at this point.
This is the standard deviation ( a range of likely ratios) he is mentioning, namely a very unlikely ratio. By the end of the experiment (In reality, if you just continue doing it) there is a very great chance that this ratio will revert to the mean, meaning eventually tails will happen more often. Stated through the opposite, it means that the experiment ending with a 800 heads and 200 tails is so unlikely that he is welling to "bet on it".

Edit: This is actually in the video he linked.

He is riding the swings, optimizing profits in the process. Granted it is not for everyone, and if you mess up your calculation where you are ( which I imagine is easy) you will hit the nail in the coffin.

antemartic wrote: I was taking all possitive arbs that mean 0% or over. If pinn give odds 1.95 other bookies need give 2.06 to be 0%. that mean value here is 3%. and for example 3% arb mean soft need to give 2.18 odds. thats value 9%. But this is far away from what will you get. Just because pinn and asian odds become unrealistic when money come on one side.
Are you saying that it is not good enough to beat the no-vig pinny line by the second decimal, but rather to beat their vig-line to actually have a proper advantage?
I sort of miss the point of your post.
Last edited by De Graaf on Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:26 pm

Answering De Graaf (wont quote your post cause its too much text). Yes, you exactly got my point. What I meant is Im familiar with standard deviation and from my experience I can say that after extreme bad streak (over minus second stanard deviation, close to third one) as you said - there is great chance you will recover quick.

At the moment I bet with 0.5% of my bankroll. So wont harm much when I increase to 1% cause it's still what most people bet.

I don't force anyone to follow. I achieved decent profit, Im happy with this. I stick to what I do. What really annoy me lately here are people trying to scare new members who want to try value betting. People saying "give up", people trying to convince that there isnt possible to avoid bookies limits (or delay limits significantly). Are they trying to get rid off competition and scared of people trying to cut some of the cake? Im gonna do what I do cause my profit over 2k bets all together now can't be coincidence.

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