Value betting questions

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:33 pm

Pete wrote:
AlexNotman1 wrote: If my stats will show that Im down to -3rd standard deviation or even close I will double my stake no matter what. Cause at that point there is extreme high chance that I will start recovering immediately. But this is subject for.another topic.
That is a very common misconception amongst losing players. So common, it even got it's own Wikipedia article.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Despite this misconception I'd also advice you to stop playing Roulette since essentially the only way you can win there is cheating.
Where did I say that I still play? I said I played. So don't make up stories. And no, "cheating" isnt the only way to win. Only way to win playing roulette is spotting biased wheel. But thats it from me, I won't be spamming talking about anything else than value bets.
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Re: Value betting questions

Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:53 pm

De Graaf wrote:
Pete wrote:
AlexNotman1 wrote: If my stats will show that Im down to -3rd standard deviation or even close I will double my stake no matter what. Cause at that point there is extreme high chance that I will start recovering immediately. But this is subject for.another topic.
That is a very common misconception amongst losing players. So common, it even got it's own Wikipedia article.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Despite this misconception I'd also advice you to stop playing Roulette since essentially the only way you can win there is cheating.
It's a simple misunderstanding. It may be useful for Alex's post to not get disregarded. To use the wiki link:
If in a coin toss experiment, first four throws are heads, this by no means increases the likeness of the fifth toss to be tails. This is the fallacy.
What Alex is suggesting that in a coin toss experiment of a 1000 throws the first 100 came 80 heads and 20 tails. He is a tails guy and he is losing at this point.
This is the standard deviation ( a range of likely ratios) he is mentioning, namely a very unlikely ratio. By the end of the experiment (In reality, if you just continue doing it) there is a very great chance that this ratio will revert to the mean, meaning eventually tails will happen more often. Stated through the opposite, it means that the experiment ending with a 800 heads and 200 tails is so unlikely that he is welling to "bet on it".

Edit: This is actually in the video he linked.

He is riding the swings, optimizing profits in the process. Granted it is not for everyone, and if you mess up your calculation where you are ( which I imagine is easy) you will hit the nail in the coffin.

antemartic wrote: I was taking all possitive arbs that mean 0% or over. If pinn give odds 1.95 other bookies need give 2.06 to be 0%. that mean value here is 3%. and for example 3% arb mean soft need to give 2.18 odds. thats value 9%. But this is far away from what will you get. Just because pinn and asian odds become unrealistic when money come on one side.
Are you saying that it is not good enough to beat the no-vig pinny line by the second decimal, but rather to beat their vig-line to actually have a proper advantage?
I sort of miss the point of your post.
I will try explain. when pinn go out with odds 1.95 for home and 1.95 for away team and money come in same amount on both sides they have arb of 2.5%. you bet 1.95 they have 2.052 other guy bet on away they have 2.052. So they are arbing like you do. But when money come much more on one side???? What will they do? I think they rather accept negative arb and cover it self. So they will drop side where money come more than it should be. they don't want be exposed. And you get value on other side. Hope you understand what I mean. Thats what I think. Maybe I'm wrong
Last edited by antemartic on Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
GrayFox
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Re: Value betting questions

Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:17 pm

De Graaf wrote: Stated through the opposite, it means that the experiment ending with a 800 heads and 200 tails is so unlikely that he is welling to "bet on it".
how we know exactly when to "end" an experiment?
De Graaf
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:07 pm

antemartic wrote:
I will try explain. when pinn go out with odds 1.95 for home and 1.95 for away team and money come in same amount on both sides they have arb of 2.5%. you bet 1.95 they have 2.052 other guy bet on away they have 2.052. So they are arbing like you do. But when money come much more on one side???? What will they do? I think they rather accept negative arb and cover it self. So they will drop side where money come more than it should be. they don't want be exposed. And you get value on other side. Hope you understand what I mean. Thats what I think. Maybe I'm wrong
Makes perfect sense. You are making the case that there is value created by necessity(usually near kick-off) due to anticipation of bandwagon.
The remark about closing odds was more general , I think, meaning that on average if one does better, he'll be on the correct side. Usually the argument goes that if you compare  openers and the closers at the same firm, you see some efficiency in the closer.
Your reasoning may influence where the largest chunk of juice is at the very least, as a mild case of the scenario. Sometimes, by simple comparing, I can make a fair guess for where they stack the juice at my locals.

The other thing worth mentioning here about your last post is the following: Now that you have clarified it for me, does it work?
Meaning there are people like you that have made actions based on this point which sort of defeats its purpose. Or more simply, you are one of those that help around bookies, for a fee, with silly bandwagon money.
GrayFox wrote:
De Graaf wrote: Stated through the opposite, it means that the experiment ending with a 800 heads and 200 tails is so unlikely that he is welling to "bet on it".
how we know exactly when to "end" an experiment?

Or where it begins for that matter. If you look far enough , spikes will be sloshing waves.
I think it is the right thread for Alex to put more words about it, if its not a bother. It is the the third question of the original op.
Also , my guess is Alex brought it up because he is uncertain about the same thing, whether  consecutive losses such as his are abnormality of the 3rd degree or not.
Last edited by De Graaf on Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:22 pm

But, wouldn't a bookie with the resources of Pinnacle ( statistical data,  liquidity, ''bankroll'', turnover, you name it) choose not to offer value and instead suffer those flactuations for a better mid-long term profit?

I believe it is naive to think that we can get a formula to extract profit from Pinnacle  they haven't already thought of. Why would they leave money on the table?
Don't they have a duty to their shareholders (do they have any? :D ) to maximise profits?
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:16 am

well you can say "owners" and it will be true for LLC or publicly trading company :p
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Feb 27, 2016 10:04 am

Ive been testing if would be possible to use standard deviation in value betting. Looks promissing at the moment but I can't draw any conclusions before tested on huge database. Anyone do valuebetting and could send me archived bets please? All I need is few thousands bets saying if bet was won with soft bookie or not. Need them sorted by date when the bet was made. Odds between 1.7 - 2.4. I would be more than grateful.

For example: (graded as won/lost with soft bookie side)
01.01.2016 Man utd - Chelsea 1 WON
01.01.2016 Everton  - Liverpool X WON
02.01.2016 Juventus - Torino X LOST
04.01.2016 PSV - Ajax 2 AH0 WON

etc.
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Dentz
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Re: Value betting questions

Sat Feb 27, 2016 6:48 pm

Hi,

Have you tested http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php?
They have quite large statistics library in cvs format. There is results and odds from most soft bookies.
I have used them with my trading and value betting.
Never lose your capital.
ranrom
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Re: Value betting questions

Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:50 pm

Hi,
In recent years I have tried arbing/value betting in all ways and with most of the bookies.
Still, I would have a few questions related to value betting, mostly for bench-marking purposes:
1) do you take negative value betting? if yes, what is your accepted max negative %?
2) did you notice that in some soft bookies you have a constant winning trend, while for others the balance remains the same or even decreases (on a long run I mean)? If yes, what are the winning soft bookies and which are the losing ones?
Cheers.
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Re: Value betting questions

Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:24 pm

1. There must be a very specific reason to act like they. If it is negative...then there is no value. Only thing I could think about is finish a tough roll over.
2. Yes. Money moves from Asians, betfair, Pinn, to softbooks. Softbooks represent value, while the rest represent del prices.
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:22 am

ranrom wrote: 1) do you take negative value betting? if yes, what is your accepted max negative %?
You could do that and expect profits but its inviting for some serious variance and you need to know that the bookie you compare the negative bet with actually has sharper odds than the other on the given market. The max neg% is calculated of the payout percentage of the given market at the sharp(er) book. One of the upsides is that your soft accounts (might) last longer.
Last edited by AnnaPrentice on Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
AlexNotman1
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:38 am

Dentz wrote: Hi,

Have you tested http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php?
They have quite large statistics library in cvs format. There is results and odds from most soft bookies.
I have used them with my trading and value betting.
I'm not sure if you got me right. I dont need results of the games. I need someone's betting results. I mean when someone lost a bet with soft bookie or won a bet, day by day. But thanks anyway.
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Mar 02, 2016 3:27 pm

Hello guys, i need your help here. I was thinking about what is the best staking plan for valuebetting.
Supposed that i am sure of the probability of an event, would it be better to use the kelly staking plan? or kelly/2 or any other plan? And, supposed that i'm going to use kelly, should i always update my bankroll after every single bet? And if my first bet is not settled yet should i consider the amount spent off from the bankroll?
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Mar 02, 2016 5:24 pm

well the best staking plan it should be a % of your bankroll (so your stake goes up at winning, down on losing) BUT it is not handy if you plan to hit whatever it moves because you can't estimate your bankroll with the open bets. I suggest to either stick to flat betting or what im using in general and i find it very good. You set a target amount x and you bet until you get that so let's say you want to win every time 100 euros at odds 1.91 you have to bet 110 to get 100 etc that works for odds lowet than 2, for odds over 2 i bet the x amount for example 100*3
Don't speak for something you have no clue.
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:26 pm

I use my own sort of made up staking plan. I take into account the value of the arb and if the side value side of the bet i am taking is the favourite at pinnacle and place my bet from there. if its a 1% arb and the value odds are 1.6 or 5 I will place a smaller to win ammount there than if the arb is 5% and my value odds are 2.1

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