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Value Betting risk management case

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
jacampillocc
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Re: Value Betting risk management case

Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:07 pm

Hello, I would like to share my situation. From the start of this year I am doing valuebetting in local shops betting the soft leg of an arb in locals and no betting the pinacle leg. Previously I had susscesful seasons doing the same in online bookmakers, but since I started focusing in Local Shops this year I am having a long bad run during all the year. My numbers this year are:

2.400 bets, -4,6 % of yield, 5,9 % in average better of the pinnacle closing odds (margin removed).

The results are pretty dissapointing and it’s true that I use all range of markets for my bets, so I am separating the results from big markets and small markets in order to confirm the facts exposed here. But I don’t know if I am missing something extra beacuse doing the same previous years the results were goog (was only luck???) and in small sports like Handball or Volley the results are good.
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arbusers
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Re: Value Betting risk management case

Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:31 pm

jacampillocc wrote: Hello, I would like to share my situation. From the start of this year I am doing valuebetting in local shops betting the soft leg of an arb in locals and no betting the pinacle leg. Previously I had susscesful seasons doing the same in online bookmakers, but since I started focusing in Local Shops this year I am having a long bad run during all the year. My numbers this year are:

2.400 bets, -4,6 % of yield, 5,9 % in average better of the pinnacle closing odds (margin removed).

The results are pretty dissapointing and it’s true that I use all range of markets for my bets, so I am separating the results from big markets and small markets in order to confirm the facts exposed here. But I don’t know if I am missing something extra beacuse doing the same previous years the results were goog (was only luck???) and in small sports like Handball or Volley the results are good.
You should focus on what you are doing differently now with shops compared to what you were doing on line?
Just some quick spots:
Are the markets the same?
Is the staking plan the same?
Is the betting style (pregame or inplay) the same?
Alfa1234
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Re: Value Betting risk management case

Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:06 pm

@ Arbusers, can I ask what has changed compared to this person's previous successfull value betting years?  You say he was making more valuebetting than arbing, that implies he had a few very good seasons.  Was this simply because of a long lucky streak?  I find that hard to believe.  What did he change or what changed this last year that caused the recent loss?
Last edited by Alfa1234 on Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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arbusers
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Re: Value Betting risk management case

Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:18 pm

Alfa1234 wrote: @ Arbusers, can I ask what has changed compared to this person's previous successfull value betting years?  You say he was making more valuebetting than arbing, that implies he had a few very good seasons.  Was this simply because of a long lucky streak?  I find that hard to believe.  What did he change or what changed this last year that caused the recent loss?
Unfortunately I didn't ask this very important question during our conversation. I m reluctant to go back and ask him any questions now as he is taking his detox period and he is about to travel. On the other hand, who knows...sooner or later he will read this thread and might want to deposit his experience.
Shawn2k
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Re: Value Betting risk management case

Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:11 pm

Shawn2k wrote: Thanks for sharing this story. Probably a difficult question to answer, but since he did use such big arbs; How big difference did he expect the income would be from valuebetting instead of arbing?

By theory the margin Pinnacle and other asians take is the difference, but that's theory. I think this is one of the most important factors for a user who are considering valuebetting instead of arbing. This guy is obviously blessed with nice limits somehow, so just arbing does not sound bad - Then again, margins at asians are higher on lower leagues, which makes valuebetting attractive.
Do we have an answer to this? I think this is the most important factor why he valuebets instead of arbing. Obviously it has previously paid more, but how much? This says a lot about the risk we are taking.
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Re: Value Betting risk management case

Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:18 am

I think you already know the answer. Value bettors expect to save commission rates (in the case of the exchanges) and margins (bookmakers) for themselves.
Theoretically if your commission rate is 3% in Betfair, you expect to save that money.
VidaBlue
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Re: Value Betting risk management case

Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:36 pm

jacampillocc wrote: Hello, I would like to share my situation. From the start of this year I am doing valuebetting in local shops betting the soft leg of an arb in locals and no betting the pinacle leg. Previously I had susscesful seasons doing the same in online bookmakers, but since I started focusing in Local Shops this year I am having a long bad run during all the year. My numbers this year are:

2.400 bets, -4,6 % of yield, 5,9 % in average better of the pinnacle closing odds (margin removed).

The results are pretty dissapointing and it’s true that I use all range of markets for my bets, so I am separating the results from big markets and small markets in order to confirm the facts exposed here. But I don’t know if I am missing something extra beacuse doing the same previous years the results were goog (was only luck???) and in small sports like Handball or Volley the results are good.
There are so many that either arb with Pinnacle or exclusively valuebet based on the Pinnacle lean. It is almost like a religion and the only right thing to do in so many bettor minds. But it is also a simple and straightforward approach, so maybe that is why it is so commonly used.

If you're not totally discouraged at this point, I encourage you to broaden your horizon and mix with other strategies as well. I use Pinnacle lean myself, but I keep in mind that it is not the only truth and I believe it is a false truth in many cases.

For instance, I noticed that my small national bookmaker is market leading in some very specific markets, but it took some time to realize and initially I put my money there. Now, once their odds are released I take the value bet on Pinnacle and it is always a good bet when comparing with the closing line 2-3 days later.

You can also start betting against the average soft market price, against other softs. You will soon realize the dynamics when there's great discrepancy among softs and that some softs almost always have their odds moved towards other softs and not vice-versa. You will find much higher edges here as well.

You can start carefully using very low stakes until you feel comfortable and trained. Then you can continue if you think it appeals to you. I wouldn't wait until getting statistical evidence such as a 4-digit sample size to prove this point. If you consistently see your early value bets getting higher edged once liquidity enters the market, this should be sufficient to get convinced.
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Re: Value Betting risk management case

Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:25 am

Totally agree with you VidaBlue, and also interesting what you wrote.

There is many roads to Rome.

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