Arbusers

If you're talking about these big line changes within a minute, this story looks like a Basketball Spread market in a live game.
Generally speaking, more than one position is OK. But there are so many specifics, so the answer may vary, depending on many things, for example:
- Your pre-game analysis;
- In-game analysis;
- Risk analysis;
- Money management;
- Does your business plan for this match insist on only value bets or trading, or a mixed approach? If you planned live value positions, but the very next value position, desired by you, is based on what? Between the 6th minute and the 5th minute till the end of a Quarter, too many things could happen in Basketball.
You can calculate whether or not adding another value item is right for you. You may aim for Basketball Middles at some point (combined with a pre-game position). Or some hedging/trading/arbing or other technique in some markets is better. Again, both risk management and money management within your pre-game plan should give you the right answer.
The possible combinations are thousands of them here and a definite answer cannot be given. So many types of situations exist in Basketball.

GStyle wrote: ↑

Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:07 pm

Hello,

Is it ok to value bet twice in the same game bet in different times? will this be a problem ?
For example, pin gives -4.5 1.85 at 4p 6:00 minute, and i found this at -2.5 1.85 at softy, after 1 minute the pin goes to -6.5 1.85 and the soft to -4.5 1.85 at 5minute of game.

So its ok the bet on soft -2.5 and -4.5 ? or 1 bet per game?

You can do it and in a very long run it is ok. But on the short term it will give you a lot of volatility since they are correlated bets. It is the same as asking should i keep same stake or bet as much as i can or is allowed from the bookies ? I prefer flat stake or flat to win amount since i can study data in a simpler way and have an idea even without looking at data with details. So i dont take correlated bets unless it is a very big EV bet.

Hello,

Thank you!

I play on live basketballs, i put flat stakes, 1% of bank. Am gathering data, and i try to play good leagues avoiding small leagues.

Arb12 am new and i dont analyze, in that deep, i have sharp bookies, and soft ones, and am trying to take from softies, odds from 1.80 to 2.50 around.

@ GStyle,

Go ahead and keep that energy in your work, when enthusiasm for work meets passion for sport, results are around the corner.

Avoid excessive burnout in your startup business as you slowly build your time-proven model! Later it's cool and easy.

@ GStyle,

Within half an hour, I spotted two Basketball collisions during their Overtime Periods. They had finished a while ago. I mean Euroleague Basketball Valencia vs PAO, and EuroCup Basketball Gran Canaria vs Budućnost.
So if you didn't watch them, backtest them your way. You wrote, that you play Point Spread markets in-live, Sharps vs Softs.

Valencia vs PAO, I don't comment on the published pre-match odds. These odds may have been in the normal ranges in terms of probability. They offered pre-match Point Spreads something like -2.5, -3 or above.
But Gran Canaria vs Budućnost, those almost equally capable teams at this point, were outrageously misjudged in terms of pre-match odds. Pre-match Spreads were something like -7, -7.5, -8 and more.

Try to backtest your basic strategies over all 4 Quarters plus the Overtime Period. You will surely diggin' further or develop new ones after that. I spotted some interesting things, in some short moments of offered intervals from -1.5 to -2.5 during these Overtimes. For example, a Sharp Exchange minus their commission offered much better odds on Point Spreads than a well-known Soft Agency. After seconds things become opposite and so on. Maybe that helps you, who knows?

Until the Overtime Period, some selected trades would take you above a certain possible profit point associated with the pre-match implied odds accepted by the client.