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Value results/stats after a year!

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
Alfa1234
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:11 am


Thanks for teaching. I recomend you to open any alert service and count value bets: softs on the one, sharp on the other. 7% roi is equal to 2% arb in average. Come on, show me 200 arbs 2% per day with sharps, I wanna see that. You can use even 50 softbooks  ;D Dont forget that we cant put money on the same result many times (tip: you can see 10 arbs, but it will give you just one value bet)
I'm not saying it's ok for value bets but arbing with limited stakes is possible if you put in the effort and are willing to work for a salary.
Thanks for reading.
lukaszs
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:15 am

Dont forget that we cant put money on the same result many times (tip: you can see 10 arbs, but it will give you just one value bet)
Why do you think in this way? It all depends from betting bank and limits. If you had a big enough betting bank or you are limited enough by softs you would be able to place these 10 bets. 
I make thousands on the value betting and know everything about it,
I had always thought that It is never late to learn :)
Alfa1234
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:19 am


I make thousands on the value betting and know everything about it,
Please, enlighten us, oh great one!  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

EDIT: sorry I just couldn't help myself...
white32
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:22 am

Why do you think in this way? It all depends from betting bank and limits. If you had a big enough betting bank or you are limited enough by softs you would be able to place these 10 bets.
You can`t, it is not matter of bank. Maybe you did not catch the idea.
We can see 10 arbs for one result. Look:
SOFT SHARP AH1 -0.5 AH2 +0.5
WH - PIN 1.9 2.2
365 - PIN 1.85 2.2
CORAL - SBO 1.87 2.19
LAD - PIN 1.89 2.2

and so on
but you can place just ONE value from these arbs! basicalle you will take the highest one
you cant bet all your bankroll on these bets as in arbing you can!
that s the additional reason why its not possible to find 200 value bets per day with roi 7% (with a 1.5% no problem, because small movements are often)!
Last edited by white32 on Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
white32
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:25 am

I had always thought that It is never late to learn
I dont need to learn because my results are ok

Example:

I can drive car well. Someone says that he can fly using a car. I say its impossible. You say that I am not skilled enough.  ;D ;D ;D
Please, enlighten us, oh great one!  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

EDIT: sorry I just couldn't help myself...
Trying  :-[
Last edited by white32 on Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
Alfa1234
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:45 am

Aren't we forgetting it says nowhere they had 7% value everywhere.  Maybe the Pinnacle lean had something to do with the results, making a 3 or 4% "value" give better results?
white32
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:47 am

Aren't we forgetting it says nowhere they had 7% value everywhere.  Maybe the Pinnacle lean had something to do with the results, making a 3 or 4% "value" give better results?
If I understood you right, then I dont think so. Pinnacle Lean is sharp. I placed 5000 bets, taking 3% value bets and see exact 3% roi!)
Alfa1234
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:49 am

All I know is my average loss % in Pinny is much higher than it should be if I allow for their normal margin.  For every 100k I bet there I lose 7 to 10% month after month after month.  That's what gave me that idea.
white32
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:52 am

Dont watch on the month data. True results take very long term. Count your bets, count value you take. Then after thounsands of bets you will see and compare everything.
Alfa1234
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:54 am

Total Pinny bets placed so far: 3204.  Total loss % = 7.9%.  No idea which value they had.
white32
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:58 am

Total Pinny bets placed so far: 3204.  Total loss % = 7.9%.  No idea which value they had.
Depending on markets Pinny can take even 4-5%. So go on betting, I think after 5000 bets you will see something around 4%.
Alfa1234
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:02 pm

I doubt the coming 1800 bets will make those results drop to 4% as that would mean I'd start breaking even in Pinny for the next 1800 bets.  I agree there's some variation but I'm still convinced they have found a way to make more than their actual juice allows for.
white32
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:08 pm

I doubt the coming 1800 bets will make those results drop to 4% as that would mean I'd start breaking even in Pinny for the next 1800 bets.  I agree there's some variation but I'm still convinced they have found a way to make more than their actual juice allows for.
It could be, but you have to finish this experiment and then think  ;)
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 2:09 pm

i want to remind you something that you seem you either have it forgotten or you ignore it... Value bet is not only whatever it drops at sharps and you get the slow reaction somewhere else... You can value bet at pinnacle also or whatever sharp there is... If they are a syndicate for sure they can do it.. Also the amount of picks might even be a litle small.. If on the hand they are just arbing (betting) then yeah the results  might a little bit questionable (not the actual results but the number of picks)
Don't speak for something you have no clue.
white32
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Re: Value results/stats after a year!

Sat Mar 26, 2016 2:19 pm

i want to remind you something that you seem you either have it forgotten or you ignore it... Value bet is not only whatever it drops at sharps and you get the slow reaction somewhere else... You can value bet at pinnacle also or whatever sharp there is... If they are a syndicate for sure they can do it.. Also the amount of picks might even be a litle small.. If on the hand they are just arbing (betting) then yeah the results  might a little bit questionable (not the actual results but the number of picks)
Yes, I know that valuebetting are wide and value can be found different ways. But as I can see here in the forum we are mostly talking about not analitical one, just taking sharp movements. Even if you use analitical type of valuebetting it will no give you additional 100 bets per day! No way.
Syndicates dont leave bets to be played, they just arb, so we do not considering this sort of making money! They work on 1-5 games per week with a huge money in order to change lines and arb, so they have nothing to do with value betting, but of course from to time you can use inefficient odds of their influence.
Last edited by white32 on Sat Mar 26, 2016 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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