Arbusers

Can anyone recommend a warning service for playing Valubet on horses?

This is a topic that I’m curious about as well - for several reasons:

1. Is there value far away from the match? Or are we talking about very fast responses to the prices in say Betfair right before the start?
2. Who are the sharp bookmakers?
3. Isn’t this a recipe for getting limited very quickly?

if you are gonna valuebet horses you will need a lot of accounts to scale it as the edge is so large for the players the books limit fast. sure you can start with alert services which arent very good for horses but there are simpler ways to give yourself a big advantage without them, for example you can look into each way value if you are a beginner. then compound this value with multiples.

the most value to be found is usually in the morning (when the races are in the afternoon) but to find this value consistently requires knowledge of the nuance and unique situations horse racing provides. the liquidity is very poor on betfair early so sharps are now manipulating these markets in order to move the prices at the soft books to their will. you will fall foul of these head fakes even with alert services guiding you.

there are sharp bookmakers but as per above you need to understand in which situation said book is sharp or not, money talks heavily in horse racing so to understand these sharp books prices you would need a local understanding of the players involved and whether or not certain yards like to gamble on their horses or not.

as ex-hft said you can follow late heavy money on betfair and pick off prices close to the race, this is a safe method of ensuring you arent victim of sharps early head fakes. expect fast limits doing this.

also interested in this

Don't think there are sharp bookmakers. All bookmakers have pretty big overrounds on horse racing. It's something like 1.5%-2% per runner. Big overround means only one thing - fear. They are not confident in their prices and they are not willing to lay big bets.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:56 pm

This is a topic that I’m curious about as well - for several reasons:

1. Is there value ....

@ Ex-hft,

This kind of sport is very difficult, but the value definitely appears every now and then, provided that your computation is better than the oddsmaker's one. I don't want to get into details but in some projects in the Beta stage, the model triggered the probability for a potential value when specific circumstances appeared for concrete jockeys. For example, the set of conditions for Franny Norton and Frankie Dettori might be XXX and XX1, while the set for Charlotte Jones is YYY2, or Nico de Boinville's ZZ1Z and so on.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:20 am

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:56 pm

This is a topic that I’m curious about as well - for several reasons:

1. Is there value ....

@ Ex-hft,

This kind of sport is very difficult, but the value definitely appears every now and then, provided that your computation is better than the oddsmaker's one. I don't want to get into details but in some projects in the Beta stage, the model triggered the probability for a potential value when specific circumstances appeared for concrete jockeys. For example, the set of conditions for Franny Norton and Frankie Dettori might be XXX and XX1, while the set for Charlotte Jones is YYY2, or Nico de Boinville's ZZ1Z and so on.

Thanks @Arb12, as always.
Modeling is of course interesting, and it's interesting to hear about your approach as well. I will try a different one if/when I get to horse racing, as you could have guessed.
But what I meant was - is there any bookmaker offering prices that show value in the sense of value betting far away (hours) from the match, as there are in soccer?
I don't know much about horse racing, but I've seen the odds on Betfair - 90% of the volume occurs very close to the start of the race, so the prices prior to that are not really informative.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:15 pm

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:20 am

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:56 pm

This is a topic that I’m curious about as well - for several reasons:

1. Is there value ....

@ Ex-hft,

This kind of sport is very difficult, but the value definitely appears every now and then, provided that your computation is better than the oddsmaker's one. I don't want to get into details but in some projects in the Beta stage, the model triggered the probability for a potential value when specific circumstances appeared for concrete jockeys. For example, the set of conditions for Franny Norton and Frankie Dettori might be XXX and XX1, while the set for Charlotte Jones is YYY2, or Nico de Boinville's ZZ1Z and so on.

Thanks @Arb12, as always.
Modeling is of course interesting, and it's interesting to hear about your approach as well. I will try a different one if/when I get to horse racing, as you could have guessed.
But what I meant was - is there any bookmaker offering prices that show value in the sense of value betting far away (hours) from the match, as there are in soccer?
I don't know much about horse racing, but I've seen the odds on Betfair - 90% of the volume occurs very close to the start of the race, so the prices prior to that are not really informative.

You're welcome.
I'm afraid you have to calculate, if not the true odds for a market, at least the correct range of odds for that market (X1.....Xn of the true probabilities, converted into odds), and much later look up the odds on the Exchanges for reference. The bookies don't look good for horses to me. The computational model for each Runner, Track or Country is certainly different.
Again, what I'm doing in Horse Value Seeking is maybe in a pre-beta stage, unproven long term, but it looks good to have some good points in the very long term if combined with proper money management and risk management.

Naturally, the case is very, very different if we are talking about Horse Trading. Then each Country, each Runner, each Track, and each market in general, can simply be coldly traded and Price Action or other techniques applied. And again, fundamental analysis (applied in Value Seeking) greatly helps this trading.

Ex-hft,
Perhaps you could backtest Horse Trading in general and apply Time Series Analysis to tap into the historical expected range of true odds and later attack via your horse value reference against that of the bookies?

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:19 pm

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:15 pm

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:20 am

@ Ex-hft,

This kind of sport is very difficult, but the value definitely appears every now and then, provided that your computation is better than the oddsmaker's one. I don't want to get into details but in some projects in the Beta stage, the model triggered the probability for a potential value when specific circumstances appeared for concrete jockeys. For example, the set of conditions for Franny Norton and Frankie Dettori might be XXX and XX1, while the set for Charlotte Jones is YYY2, or Nico de Boinville's ZZ1Z and so on.

Thanks @Arb12, as always.
Modeling is of course interesting, and it's interesting to hear about your approach as well. I will try a different one if/when I get to horse racing, as you could have guessed.
But what I meant was - is there any bookmaker offering prices that show value in the sense of value betting far away (hours) from the match, as there are in soccer?
I don't know much about horse racing, but I've seen the odds on Betfair - 90% of the volume occurs very close to the start of the race, so the prices prior to that are not really informative.

You're welcome.
I'm afraid you have to calculate, if not the true odds for a market, at least the correct range of odds for that market (X1.....Xn of the true probabilities, converted into odds), and much later look up the odds on the Exchanges for reference. The bookies don't look good for horses to me. The computational model for each Runner, Track or Country is certainly different.
Again, what I'm doing in Horse Value Seeking is maybe in a pre-beta stage, unproven long term, but it looks good to have some good points in the very long term if combined with proper money management and risk management.

Naturally, the case is very, very different if we are talking about Horse Trading. Then each Country, each Runner, each Track, and each market in general, can simply be coldly traded and Price Action or other techniques applied. And again, fundamental analysis (applied in Value Seeking) greatly helps this trading.

Ex-hft,
Perhaps you could backtest Horse Trading in general and apply Time Series Analysis to tap into the historical expected range of true odds and later attack via your horse value reference against that of the bookies?

That's what I thought. Sounds like a very interesting market. I'm sure that both fundamental modeling (jockey X trainer X horse X track + weather, maybe other factors) and time series / microstructure models for fast trading can be applied, but I've got my hands full with soccer at the moment, so I can't say that I know anything which works for sure yet.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:40 pm

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:19 pm

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:15 pm

Thanks @Arb12, as always.
Modeling is of course interesting, and it's interesting to hear about your approach as well. I will try a different one if/when I get to horse racing, as you could have guessed.
But what I meant was - is there any bookmaker offering prices that show value in the sense of value betting far away (hours) from the match, as there are in soccer?
I don't know much about horse racing, but I've seen the odds on Betfair - 90% of the volume occurs very close to the start of the race, so the prices prior to that are not really informative.

You're welcome.
I'm afraid you have to calculate, if not the true odds for a market, at least the correct range of odds for that market (X1.....Xn of the true probabilities, converted into odds), and much later look up the odds on the Exchanges for reference. The bookies don't look good for horses to me. The computational model for each Runner, Track or Country is certainly different.
Again, what I'm doing in Horse Value Seeking is maybe in a pre-beta stage, unproven long term, but it looks good to have some good points in the very long term if combined with proper money management and risk management.

Naturally, the case is very, very different if we are talking about Horse Trading. Then each Country, each Runner, each Track, and each market in general, can simply be coldly traded and Price Action or other techniques applied. And again, fundamental analysis (applied in Value Seeking) greatly helps this trading.

Ex-hft,
Perhaps you could backtest Horse Trading in general and apply Time Series Analysis to tap into the historical expected range of true odds and later attack via your horse value reference against that of the bookies?

That's what I thought. Sounds like a very interesting market. I'm sure that both fundamental modeling (jockey X trainer X horse X track + weather, maybe other factors) and time series / microstructure models for fast trading can be applied, but I've got my hands full with soccer at the moment, so I can't say that I know anything which works for sure yet.

Same case here for me. I can't afford to leave my profitable and proven markets like Soccer, Tennis, Basketball, Cricket and so forth, to develop things unproven in the long term. After all, every person has only 24 hours in a day for everything in personal and business life and not a second more.
But the development process in various fields does not stop during these 24 hours, of course. It's an investment in the future. Let's see what happens.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 3:02 pm

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:40 pm

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:19 pm

You're welcome.
I'm afraid you have to calculate, if not the true odds for a market, at least the correct range of odds for that market (X1.....Xn of the true probabilities, converted into odds), and much later look up the odds on the Exchanges for reference. The bookies don't look good for horses to me. The computational model for each Runner, Track or Country is certainly different.
Again, what I'm doing in Horse Value Seeking is maybe in a pre-beta stage, unproven long term, but it looks good to have some good points in the very long term if combined with proper money management and risk management.

Naturally, the case is very, very different if we are talking about Horse Trading. Then each Country, each Runner, each Track, and each market in general, can simply be coldly traded and Price Action or other techniques applied. And again, fundamental analysis (applied in Value Seeking) greatly helps this trading.

Ex-hft,
Perhaps you could backtest Horse Trading in general and apply Time Series Analysis to tap into the historical expected range of true odds and later attack via your horse value reference against that of the bookies?

That's what I thought. Sounds like a very interesting market. I'm sure that both fundamental modeling (jockey X trainer X horse X track + weather, maybe other factors) and time series / microstructure models for fast trading can be applied, but I've got my hands full with soccer at the moment, so I can't say that I know anything which works for sure yet.

Same case here for me. I can't afford to leave my profitable and proven markets like Soccer, Tennis, Basketball, Cricket and so forth, to develop things unproven in the long term. After all, every person has only 24 hours in a day for everything in personal and business life and not a second more.
But the development process in various fields does not stop during these 24 hours, of course. It's an investment in the future. Let's see what happens.

hey mate, i've read some of your post on the forum and strongly aligns with you believe in pure numbers betting, i recently started betting and have a long way ahead, experience wise. The terms you use on the forum, how you answer questions, your view/perspective is always well thought out, please what course did you study in college? Statistics? i'll love to gain experience like you someday.

Hello lm10,
Are you asking me or Mr. Ex-hft?
In case the question is to me, let's say that Statistics is a discipline widely used by agencies to compile their probabilities about market events, but later they compile the published odds against you.
I could recommend you read carefully the vast literature regarding Forecasting Techniques and Statistics by Prof. Spyros Makridakis, a former Olympics sportsman.
We all exchange some opinions here in that Forum, but the Statistics themselves are only a tool, not a panacea. A deep analysis of the Logic behind the selected numbers can give you some answers. I'm afraid the rationale behind the variables you choose to enter into your own Model is up to you. Additionally, neither the Model you invented nor the appropriate pre-selected variables are constant all the time. Why?
I don't need to mention the 10.000-hour rule. Later, with experience, everything becomes much easier than in the beginning.
Read this wise Forum carefully, for example, VidaBlue's opinions as Statistical & Logical point of view. And read also the opinions, published by dozens of skilled members of course.
Hope that helps.
I wish you success in the business!

Addendum to the previous posting, or why math-oriented people couldn't be caught by the "industry"?

Why didn't the 4,000+ members of the American Physical Society visit the Las Vegas casinos when their annual meeting was at the MGM? Find out on Youtube "Neil deGrasse Tyson On Statistics And Probability", if you want.