BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

valuebet vs arbitrage

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
ProfGambler
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: -127
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:58 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:21 am

Alfa1234 wrote: I'm going to simply stop replying to these guys and see if they're still around after a couple of months or so.  I don't believe for a minute they are making any money with the idiocy they are displaying here so they'll probably stop posting once their bankroll is gone.  :)
Can't agree more
Alfa1234
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 63
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 2:52 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:19 pm

got an interesting mail from Trademate sports today explaining basically why Pinnacle is sharp on big games:

#1 - MARKET LIQUIDITY = INFORMATION
The bookmakers employ top sports experts and data scientists who take in huge amounts of information on everything from lineups, injuries and team form to place their initial odds line. In other words, information is used to calculate the probability of let’s say Manchester United beating Arsenal in two weeks.

One of the best sports traders in the world is Tony Bloom, the owner of Brighton Football Club and the betting syndicate Starlizard. According to Business Insider, Starlizard employs 160 workers who spend their day crunching statistics and building their own computer models for calculating the odds of sporting events, e.g. United winning. To run a company of Starlizard’s size and pay all the employees, the betting size and volume needs to be huge, in the range of hundreds of thousands to millions of pounds per bet. If they believe that the bookmaker is giving odds of 2.0, when their own calculations say that the true probability of Manchester United winning is 1.9. They will bet a large amount on any odds above 1.9, causing the odds to drop until it reaches 1.9.

It is not possible to place large bets on the soft bookmakers, so the professionals perform their betting at the sharp bookmakers who offer higher stake limits on games. Once the odds goes down on one side, it will inevitably rise on the other. So now the odds of a draw or away win could be at 3.40 and 3.90 respectively. Now, someone else might believe that there is value to be had by betting on an away win based on the information they possess. They will then place a bet on Arsenal to win, shifting the odds line again. Eventually, the odds line will reach equilibrium, where no-one is willing to place any more money on any of the game’s outcomes.

If you are going to place $1 million on the outcome of a game, you better make sure that you get it right, if not you will go out of business over time. This also implies that when someone is willing to place such high stakes on a game, they possess information that suggests that this is a profitable bet. Thus one can draw the conclusion that the money placed on a game (liquidity) is equal to information. Watching and analyzing these high-liquidity markets, allows you to follow big movers such as Tony Blom. Essentially giving you access to their positions and information.
midoritea
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 3
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:57 am

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:02 pm

Well money moves prices, one way or another, but there are two problems in this example:

1. Pinnacle just laid a HUGE bet at +EV odds. If they would do this often they are out. They can and probably do mitigate this risk by offering lower early limits, but they still need to be reasonably sharp by themself to avoid too costly corrections.

2. This is only prematch. Real (live) betting is completely different.
Alfa1234
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 63
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 2:52 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Sun Nov 13, 2016 12:12 am

Pinnacle makes a few cents on every bet (at least they try).  If a million pours in on 1 side, it comes slowly and with each max bet the odd drops so they try to balance it out by taking some bets on the other side to balance the book.  Listen to the Pinnacle interviews by SBR and it'll give you a good idea how it goes and how they make their money.  They won't ever lay a million with +EV as the system is designed to prevent this.
midoritea
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 3
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:57 am

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Sun Nov 13, 2016 1:44 am

All books (incl big softbooks) move prices on money, but this does not automatically make them sharp. Adjusting prices prevent further damage, not what already happened. If pinnacle laid their way from 2.00 to 1.90, than can be a cost (not enough on the other side, that's why the prices moved the first place). IMO they pay this (planned) cost from their later juice, when the book is already balanced. But they are better off the smaller these corrections are. And again, live is much tougher with much less chance for balancing.
sevvvvv
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: -2
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:33 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:59 am

If you beat the high liquidity bookies closing line (pinnie), you will make money long term.  Anywhere from 0.5% to 1.5% ROI is good if you put on a good amount of volume, lets say 10000 bets per year.
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6215
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:30 am

sevvvvv wrote: If you beat the high liquidity bookies closing line (pinnie), you will make money long term.  Anywhere from 0.5% to 1.5% ROI is good if you put on a good amount of volume, lets say 10000 bets per year.
Please elaborate on this. Do you have a credible sample of bets to support this?
Thank you.
makarid
To become a Pro
To become a ProTo become a ProTo become a Pro
Karma: 29
Posts: 336
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:20 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:52 am

midoritea wrote: And again, live is much tougher with much less chance for balancing.
I was always wondering,how the hell they balance their live books.I believe it is more like a "some of the parts balance".I lost 10 in this match i won 10 in the other match and something like that.
middler
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 15
Posts: 126
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 7:06 am

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:25 pm

Bigger juice is a key factor.

I also believe that live markets are were sharp lines hold the greatest value for them.
sevvvvv
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: -2
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:33 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:03 pm

Arbusers wrote:
sevvvvv wrote: If you beat the high liquidity bookies closing line (pinnie), you will make money long term.  Anywhere from 0.5% to 1.5% ROI is good if you put on a good amount of volume, lets say 10000 bets per year.
Please elaborate on this. Do you have a credible sample of bets to support this?
Thank you.
There was a study on the pinie closing line and nalysing almost 400.000 football matches the closing line was right on 99.7% .

So it makes sense if you beat the closing by a few ticks(edge) you are on long term ev.
fgar
Newbie
Karma: 1
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:33 am

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:35 am

sevvvvv wrote:
Arbusers wrote:
sevvvvv wrote: If you beat the high liquidity bookies closing line (pinnie), you will make money long term.  Anywhere from 0.5% to 1.5% ROI is good if you put on a good amount of volume, lets say 10000 bets per year.
Please elaborate on this. Do you have a credible sample of bets to support this?
Thank you.
There was a study on the pinie closing line and nalysing almost 400.000 football matches the closing line was right on 99.7% .

So it makes sense if you beat the closing by a few ticks(edge) you are on long term ev.
You have the url for this study?
sevvvvv
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: -2
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:33 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:40 am

http://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/pinnacle_efficiency.php
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/why-pinnacle-doesnt-close-or-limit-accounts
https://www.quora.com/How-can-one-become-profitable-in-sports-betting


How efficient is the sports market?

Through looking at the correlation between the expected probability of a game’s outcome and the actual outcome it is possible to determine how accurate a bookmaker's odds are. From a sample size of 397,935 football games offered by Pinnacle Sports, a sharp bookmaker, there existed a high correlation (r-squared = 0.997) between the closing lines and the observed probabilities. In other words, Pinnacle’s odds accurately predicted the real world outcome 99.7% of the time. Meaning that that their odds are very efficient. In their business models, bookmakers make a tradeoff between their margin and the total turnover of bets that are placed through their service. Because Pinnacle is so confident in their odds being correct it enables their business model to rely on a high volume of money being placed on their games and them to have a low margin, approx. 2 % and a 98% payout rate to their customers.
Last edited by sevvvvv on Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Alfa1234
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 63
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 2:52 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:16 am

fairpunter wrote:
sevvvvv wrote: Because Pinnacle is so confident in their odds being correct it enables their business model to rely on a high volume of money being placed on their games .....
From where do they get this confidence ?
Are they Nostradamus's sons ?
What is the magical secret  8) ??
You clearly have no idea how they operate.  Let me try to educate you a bit.

Pinnacle setts their opening odds.  From that point on, bets come in from sharp players that think there is value in those odds.  As the bets come in, Pinnacle adjusts the odds to compensates for the bets they receive.  As more and more bets come in, a balance is found in the odds and the correct odds are now formed.  Considering the fact that more bets will come in right untill the start of the game, it's arguably safe to assume the closing odds represent the true probability of that event happening minus the Pinnacle juice.  Markets are efficient and bets will keep coming in on the side where the odd pays more than the true probability of the event happening thereby dropping that odd to a point where the payout will no longer exceed the probability of it happening...and they have thus reached an efficient point.

This goes for all decent sized markets where Pinnacle takes a fairly large number of bets.  It won't work in small markets like badminton.

That is their "magical secret".  They use the knowledge of the sharpest players in the world to their advantage and combine that knowledge together so their odds represent a mix of all of that knowledge combined.  It allows them to be 99.7% correct.  That's also the reason it's nearly impossible to make money at Pinnacle if you do not consisently beat their closing line.
maletaja
Pro
ProProProPro
Karma: -22
Posts: 532
Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:45 am

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:36 pm

Yes i understsand that pinnacle=volume and is god who says how the lines should be


But i dont understand one thing. small league. soft has their lines. Pinnacle comes with new lines 350 max bet!(it shows there shouldnt be volume)
One soft i can make 4k bet and it changes lines becouse of pinancle opening low volume odds!

So my question is can soft room change pinancle when i hit i have for example inside info and im starting hitting that 4k bet soft room...
Alfa1234
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 63
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 2:52 pm

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage

Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:00 pm

maletaja wrote: Yes i understsand that pinnacle=volume and is god who says how the lines should be


But i dont understand one thing. small league. soft has their lines. Pinnacle comes with new lines 350 max bet!(it shows there shouldnt be volume)
One soft i can make 4k bet and it changes lines becouse of pinancle opening low volume odds!

So my question is can soft room change pinancle when i hit i have for example inside info and im starting hitting that 4k bet soft room...
A soft changing it's line will not move Pinnacle.  Pinnacle only moves when they receive bets.  If that Pinnacle line was not so good and they have little confidence in it, they will have a low limit.  Having a low limit will allow them to quickly get the "correct" odd as after a few max bets on the wrong side of that line, the odd will have dropped to something more correct.

This does not mean you can't find value in small markets at Pinnacle, there is a lot of value there especially at the early odds.  This is why they open sometimes with limits of 80€ or so in those markets.  After a few max bets the odd will settle on something reasonably correct and they've only taken a few hundred euro in risk, which can be fairly easily offset or made back with bets taken on the "correct" odds as the starting time of the game draws closer and their book balances out.

Return to “Arbing, matched betting and trading talk”