what is it better for a betting value strategy?
1- put minimum value bet percent on 5%-10% and do lower bets with kelly criteria
2- put 0% minimum value bet and do loads of bets with kelly criteria with little value?
thanks mates
valuebeting strategy
- Tblaugrana
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 3
Post
Re: valuebeting strategy
I'm in the same situation as you, I'm looking for information, what strategy works best, what valuebet percentage and when is the best time to bet
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
Re: valuebeting strategy
Could you make your hypotheses clear a little bit? These two points above sound to me like mixed rules outside the pure Kelly approach and bad overall control over all the account amount.
Assume that I didn't understand these two points correctly at all.
Assume that I didn't understand these two points correctly at all.
Last edited by arb12 on Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
About the first hypothesis of your case:
Put minimum value bet in range 5 till 10 percent value according to which model? And later put lower bets (according to the Kelly model?)
or
Put min value bet (unknown value, range by model? How computed?) by stake 5 to 10 percent of your capital? Why that risk? And later lower bets according to the Kelly approach?
About the second hypothesis of your case - Put 0 percent value (none of the value range is detected?) Due to the pure Kelly approach, there is no sense, why? What percent of the capital for that entry? Lower later bets according to what triggers? Or maybe combine several approaches?
Re: valuebeting strategy
Please, clarify:
About the first hypothesis of your case:
Put minimum value bet in range 5 till 10 percent value according to which model? And later put lower bets (according to the Kelly model?)
or
Put min value bet (unknown value, range by model? How computed?) by stake 5 to 10 percent of your capital? Why that risk? And later lower bets according to the Kelly approach?
About the second hypothesis of your case - Put 0 percent value (none of the value range is detected?) Due to the pure Kelly approach, there is no sense, why? What percent of the capital for that entry? Lower later bets according to what triggers? Or maybe combine several approaches?
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
Re: valuebeting strategy
Best time for every entry/exit point? These decisions are very complex. Can't detach from the long-time observations, circumstances of the pitch, from the technical analysis and the betting strategy, the model triggers, the price action and so forth.Tblaugrana wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:10 pmI'm in the same situation as you, I'm looking for information, what strategy works best, what valuebet percentage and when is the best time to bet
- gorila
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
Post
Re: valuebeting strategy
what don't you understand
i've already said that those 2 cases are considered using kelly.
when i mencioned 5% or 10% or 0% i mean the minimum overvalue acceptable for doing bets.
so, the first scenario is a case in which bets aren't many but overvalue is at least 5% to 10%
second scenario is placing so many bets but with lower over value, as for example 0%
thanks
i've already said that those 2 cases are considered using kelly.
when i mencioned 5% or 10% or 0% i mean the minimum overvalue acceptable for doing bets.
so, the first scenario is a case in which bets aren't many but overvalue is at least 5% to 10%
second scenario is placing so many bets but with lower over value, as for example 0%
thanks
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
Re: valuebeting strategy
Please, have in mind, if you want an opinion from a trader in that business with let's say several tens of thousands of hours in front of the trading screens and an enormous amount traded so far, clarify may be required. I'm not perfect, sorry. I've read your questions and several kinds of models have arisen in my mind, I haven't got so much time to distinguish every single case. Simply tryin' to help when I've got some free time.
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
Hope that your sampling consists of big data and backtesting generated in any of the written above methods, showing you a positive value overall?
Bear in mind, all these thoughts do matter only in the long haul.
In addition, every percent advantage due to Kelly must be proven by your model, and if the advantage is>0 there is a matter to bet, and on the other hand, if you make an error in the "mean, mode, median" parameters computing, that will cause much bigger damages to you than an error in the "advantage" parameter computing in terms of Kelly criterion!
But here comes in effect money management, have in account all the amount of your balance, for the very long haul for multi bets you've mentioned.
Those many bets in a given single event may bust you unless you're a price action specialist under serious risk control. Better test several thousands of data sets and analyze that, prior to going deep in that.
Re: valuebeting strategy
Thanks for the clarification on your side. So, your expertise in the kind of event you participated in and your style may require straight value bets and tradings. You've mentioned value bets, so if there are several ones in one match and you're not a pro or semi-pro, i.e. your bankroll is not decent, better apply partial Kelly or Vince's theory (optimal F) to prevent bust. If combined with hedging that may improve some things, even the bust to be reduced to lost margin or something. Or, in a positive final, the value helps to be accumulated.gorila wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:56 pmi've already said that those 2 cases are considered using kelly.
when i mencioned 5% or 10% or 0% i mean the minimum overvalue acceptable for doing bets.
so, the first scenario is a case in which bets aren't many but overvalue is at least 5% to 10%
second scenario is placing so many bets but with lower over value, as for example 0%
Hope that your sampling consists of big data and backtesting generated in any of the written above methods, showing you a positive value overall?
Bear in mind, all these thoughts do matter only in the long haul.
In addition, every percent advantage due to Kelly must be proven by your model, and if the advantage is>0 there is a matter to bet, and on the other hand, if you make an error in the "mean, mode, median" parameters computing, that will cause much bigger damages to you than an error in the "advantage" parameter computing in terms of Kelly criterion!
But here comes in effect money management, have in account all the amount of your balance, for the very long haul for multi bets you've mentioned.
Those many bets in a given single event may bust you unless you're a price action specialist under serious risk control. Better test several thousands of data sets and analyze that, prior to going deep in that.
- Tblaugrana
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 3
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
In addition to my answer to you above regarding the same question, you may observe some time-series data, carefully selected by you, and later may extract some info. When to enter the markets like Ascot UK Race, and s.Oliver Würzburg Baskets is not the same, but you may have your own viewpoint. And on the other hand, if suddenly circumstances change in some directions, for instance, someone in Asia or elsewhere provides suddenly big liquidity i.e. several million or somethin' for a few seconds in Windsor UK Race or other markets?
Re: valuebeting strategy
@ Tblaugrana,Tblaugrana wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:03 pmwhen should value bets be played? 1 hour? 30min or 1 day
In addition to my answer to you above regarding the same question, you may observe some time-series data, carefully selected by you, and later may extract some info. When to enter the markets like Ascot UK Race, and s.Oliver Würzburg Baskets is not the same, but you may have your own viewpoint. And on the other hand, if suddenly circumstances change in some directions, for instance, someone in Asia or elsewhere provides suddenly big liquidity i.e. several million or somethin' for a few seconds in Windsor UK Race or other markets?
- arbusers
- Administrator
- Contact:
- Karma: 622
Post
Re: valuebeting strategy
There is another approach. Instead of looking for time windows, it may be better looking for odds windows, in an attempt to get the highest possible odds, no matter if it is 1 minute, or 1 day before the event.Tblaugrana wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:03 pmwhen should value bets be played? 1 hour? 30min or 1 day