Arbusers

Hi all,

I have come to the realization that in order to keep making a profit in this business (hopefully) I must switch from Live Arbitrage to Valuebetting.

I have been very successful with my arbitrage for the last couple of years, but it has been the complete opposite betting style as I have been hitting hard and big on 3% + arbs with very few bets a week.

However, when it comes to valuebetting it has been a complete disaster for me where I have been hitting 25+ bets a day with value 3% +

After more than 500 bets in bet365 I’m in negative. (Which is second time I try in bet365, around same bets and results from last time)

After more than 500 bets in Unibet I’m in negative there as well.

Only soccer and tennis markets.

I use valuebetting service from betburger (only sharps and exchange as reference) and betonvalue arbitrage service only Unibet/bet365 against Pinnacle.

I’m simply confused and frustrated as I cannot figure out why I can’t beat the 2 softs bet365 and Unibet. I don’t know if it is variance or if the value is wrong identified.
It has been easy for me to exploit other restricted accounts as Bwin, Bettsson group, Pokerstars and more, but I just haven’t found the way with 365 and Unibet which I even believe is “an easy soft target”

I want to ask if anyone can share positive stories and results with value betting from limited accounts and witch filters/services that is used or if anyone have had the same troubles.
Do you use valuebetting from betburger?
API services?
Smartbet?
Or others?

My average stake is around 30 Euro a bet, and with bet365 and Unibet it’s possible to hit again everyone the lines/odds change.

500 bets is definitely not enough, especially if you place bets on many random markets and sports. Variance can be very tricky. I have experience where I placed over 2k bets and was still in negative but then after many more bets profit reached EV. However, be careful when you use BB for value betting. I am not sure how they calculate value percent. I think they calculate it based on average market odds and in my experience it is not a good approach. And always make sure to check that sharp odds are indeed what alert service displays to you because often there can be significant delay in their odds feed and it is especially important if you do live value betting. Also you might want to try setting higher minimal value percent and avoid low liquidity markets. But most important, treat your value betting bankroll as a long term investment rather than monthly income source.

Lumberjack wrote:
After more than 500 bets in bet365 I’m in negative. (Which is second time I try in bet365, around same bets and results from last time)

After more than 500 bets in Unibet I’m in negative there as well.

If i were you, i would consider myself lucky.. All i had to do is to lay the valuebets.

I would never support the dogma of "in the long run you will be a winner".. In the long run, we are all dead.