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Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
Samael
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Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:03 pm

mr3333 wrote:
Samael wrote:
mr3333 wrote: Great discussion.

Are they sharp on their inplay corner markets? I see a ton arbs against pinny live on their cornermarkets but have placed very few bets on it to come to a conclussion yet.

Regarding the tennis it was against the exchange so can not say how pinny is there. It was 95% bets on the underdog, seems like no favorite lost in the opening round..
From my personal experience,grand slams are not ideal for underdogs.
There will be some underdog winners sure,but if you take too much volume and bet everything,this is event where you can get burned.

Yes noticed that too. I´ve been valuebetting tennis for 7-8 months so im a newbie on it and will be more careful in the future on the slams. Have had success on it before but this made me really put a break on it for the rest of the tournament. But it was probably just a bad run also because i beat the exchange with a lot of margin. The whole january were a total disaster regarding tennis for me.
Can you eplain what do you mean when you say you beat exchange?
I assume you are reffering to betfair exchange but on live markets right,you know for sure they are sharp?
as live betting is very vague thing.

Its important to know where to look and that underdogs, in this case win their share.
You may catch odds 19.0 instead 14.0 (i assume you mean that when you say you beat them by wide margin)
but if your underdogs dont deliver you have nothing from nice odds
mr3333
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Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:25 pm

Samael wrote:
mr3333 wrote:
Samael wrote: From my personal experience,grand slams are not ideal for underdogs.
There will be some underdog winners sure,but if you take too much volume and bet everything,this is event where you can get burned.

Yes noticed that too. I´ve been valuebetting tennis for 7-8 months so im a newbie on it and will be more careful in the future on the slams. Have had success on it before but this made me really put a break on it for the rest of the tournament. But it was probably just a bad run also because i beat the exchange with a lot of margin. The whole january were a total disaster regarding tennis for me.
Can you eplain what do you mean when you say you beat exchange?
I assume you are reffering to betfair exchange but on live markets right,you know for sure they are sharp?
as live betting is very vague thing.

Its important to know where to look and that underdogs, in this case win their share.
You may catch odds 19.0 instead 14.0 (i assume you mean that when you say you beat them by wide margin)
but if your underdogs dont deliver you have nothing from nice odds
Yes with beat the exchange i mean pre match i get better odds than the exchange with atleast a couple of dots. Thats prematch, live i know its more vague. And by underdogs it was in the range of 2.0-6.0 mainly in odds. I guess on averge about 3x. Meaning with beating with a margin i mean like 3.6x drops to 2.9x for example. But since ive done this and made money on it for almost 2 years now i think i just have had an incredbile bad run the last month on tennis, just have to ride it out. And regarding the pinnacle issue i think i took way too early lines on very small markets, i need to be alot more selective there.

Beating the exchange i feel will always make you money in the long run if its decent liquidity, so if there is a better line on the soft vs the exchange i always take it and it has always resulted in profit for long periods of time. Not selective at all there actually but maybe there is even more work to do there.
Samael
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Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence

Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:31 pm

mr3333 wrote:
Samael wrote:
mr3333 wrote:
Yes noticed that too. I´ve been valuebetting tennis for 7-8 months so im a newbie on it and will be more careful in the future on the slams. Have had success on it before but this made me really put a break on it for the rest of the tournament. But it was probably just a bad run also because i beat the exchange with a lot of margin. The whole january were a total disaster regarding tennis for me.
Can you eplain what do you mean when you say you beat exchange?
I assume you are reffering to betfair exchange but on live markets right,you know for sure they are sharp?
as live betting is very vague thing.

Its important to know where to look and that underdogs, in this case win their share.
You may catch odds 19.0 instead 14.0 (i assume you mean that when you say you beat them by wide margin)
but if your underdogs dont deliver you have nothing from nice odds
Yes with beat the exchange i mean pre match i get better odds than the exchange with atleast a couple of dots. Thats prematch, live i know its more vague. And by underdogs it was in the range of 2.0-6.0 mainly in odds. I guess on averge about 3x. Meaning with beating with a margin i mean like 3.6x drops to 2.9x for example. But since ive done this and made money on it for almost 2 years now i think i just have had an incredbile bad run the last month on tennis, just have to ride it out. And regarding the pinnacle issue i think i took way too early lines on very small markets, i need to be alot more selective there.

Beating the exchange i feel will always make you money in the long run if its decent liquidity, so if there is a better line on the soft vs the exchange i always take it and it has always resulted in profit for long periods of time. Not selective at all there actually but maybe there is even more work to do there.
2 years is nice sample size..thx for response and i hope you turn it around in february :)
co
cocahontas

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:31 pm

Hello, very interesting reading!
Im know moving through something similiar. You use some valuebet software where you set betfair exchange as a sharp side? And you bet every sport every match which has for example 4% and above EV? Im just thinking about the something else because now im using pinnacle as reference side.Maybe it would be great to change to betfair as a reference too.

Thank you for your post here. For my curiousity how many accounts did you burn with prematch arbing and how many with valuebetting?
Ragoo
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Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence

Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:12 pm

mr3333 wrote: Hello, ive read the forum for some time and its been a great help and im now looking to hopefully contribute with what i can and ask for advice.

Yes the topic is a little bit exagerrated but im wondering about your opinion.
I started go fulltime arbing 2018 in the summer, i live in a scandinavian country and made from the summer to the last of decemeber about 50k euro ONLY prematch arbing, about 6-8k a month. Yes that was when smarkets hade their zero percent offer and it was a goldmine. As a newbie (atleast first time quitting my job to live of gambling) and wanted a steady pay valuebetting wasnt anything on my mind even tho i noticed all the money ended up on the softbook as it eventually always does.

Fast forward to january 1st 2019 there is a new regulation in my country (yes you may know which one) and only betfair is now avalilable with a 6.5 commision. Hence my prematch style of arbing is pretty impossible. Read more and more about valuebetting and started to realise that was the only solution if i didnt want to end up att a wothless job again. So back when all the big leagues started in august i return with the mindset of making valuebetting my bread and butter.

Again i made about 30k euro in 5 months from august till 31st of december 2019. But here is the point, in mid november i started to watch for arb against pinnacle and didnt cover arbs at pinnacle and im in a HUGE downswing for me. 8k down now as we speak and that is since i implemented to watch for arbs against the pinnacle, before that i only had the exchange as a reference for value and that was extremly profitable.

Now for some questions after i shared my story as new to the forum, is pinnacle really that sharp anymore? And the second question, what to do when you hit a downswing, my confidence is at an all time low and im even scared to bet at all at the moment, i had a streak on the opening on australian open where i lost 24 out of 28 singles on winners. insane for me. You experinced guys in the business do you have som advice on mindset and so on, really need some tips since its really not something the average joe knows about. What do you do when you go like 2 months just down down. And is filtration a lot more important with pinnacle? With the exchange i feel confident but with pinnacle i wonder if im even betting value anymore. Share with me your downswings if you want and how you handled it, feeling lost and scared to bet at the moment.

Is there more scandinavians at the forum feel free to PM if you wanna discuss this business.

Bro what bookie did you used back in 2018...?? I am a newbie im arbetrage betting .. i start with 500$ and in 25 days i double my money.. i was using bet365 and betfair only.. now bet365 limit me to 10$ ... now i am searching for a well repudiated bookie...

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