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What arbitrage return do you seek?

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DaanK
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What arbitrage return do you seek?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:03 pm

Hi,

So there are a couple of things I saw coming by about the % people would like to see when taking a bet.

There are people that will bet as much as possible when seeing a bet that will give a really high return (40% +), that means that they get banned quite easily, but with a big bang.

And There are people who are going for the long run, taking lots of smaller bets (2-20%).

What do you aim for? And why?
And how much bets do you want to have placed/place every day? In my opinion its really strange (in the bookies eyes) if someone is pumping out 60 bets an hour

I was thinking to go for bets with a return of around 2-10%. Just to keep the bookies from noticing the really extreme/strange bets. In combination with some value betting (meaning some losses aswel) to stay away from the bookies as much as I can.

I hope to hear from you.

Thanks in advance. 
Last edited by DaanK on Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
GreenScalper
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Re: What arbitrage return do you seek?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:03 pm

Forget about double-digit % arbs. It's unlikely to find many of these and there's a good chance your bets to be voided as palpable errors.
Most people are happy even with 2-3%,
Calibermonkey
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Re: What arbitrage return do you seek?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:02 pm

DaanK wrote: Hi,

So there are a couple of things I saw coming by about the % people would like to see when taking a bet.

There are people that will bet as much as possible when seeing a bet that will give a really high return (40% +), that means that they get banned quite easily, but with a big bang.

And There are people who are going for the long run, taking lots of smaller bets (2-20%).

What do you aim for? And why?
And how much bets do you want to have placed/place every day? In my opinion its really strange (in the bookies eyes) if someone is pumping out 60 bets an hour

I was thinking to go for bets with a return of around 2-10%. Just to keep the bookies from noticing the really extreme/strange bets. In combination with some value betting (meaning some losses aswel) to stay away from the bookies as much as I can.

I hope to hear from you.

Thanks in advance.
I place surebets above 7% you will not get more than 10 most of the time.

It is better to place fewer bets with higher return in my opinion to have less chance of being flagged
DaanK
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Re: What arbitrage return do you seek?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:11 pm

GreenScalper wrote: Forget about double-digit % arbs. It's unlikely to find many of these and there's a good chance your bets to be voided as palpable errors.
Most people are happy even with 2-3%,
Yes, So you suggest to do a couple of lower gain arbs to be safe and secure?

If higher arbs are more "rare" does that mean that they are a bit more risky to be limited? I was thinking about doing something like 80/20; 80% bets with a lower percentage gain(<5%), and 20% with some higher percentage gain (5>%). What do you think about something like this? If I would've been the bookie I would only get confused if I get weird bets placed on higher and lower odds.

Thanks in advance!
GreenScalper
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Re: What arbitrage return do you seek?

Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:26 pm

Don't think bookies could be so easily confused. They look for patterns. For example one recreational punter is betting only overs, other recreational punter could be betting only odds-on prices, 3rd only multiples and so on. When you are arbing it is impossible to have such pattern. You can't pass thorough inspections of your betting activity.
Last edited by GreenScalper on Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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