What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:20 pm

Happens all the time
For example 18bet had recently MLB action Main page is match bet, but when i enter betslip Q apperars to match up( so its like quater...). I went to invetsigate why both my bets lose...
I start with soft 4% arb and pinnacle line changes so fast that i end with negative surebet
Or some theoretical cases "both to score" and team2 under 0.5 goal i guess all option are covered...
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:30 pm

Rufus wrote: I am sure every arber has made some mistakes, at least from the beggining of his career. I made my worst mistake so far yesterday - accidentally put both stakes on the same leg of an arb, and didn't notice until it was too late. Of course the wrong leg has won, and it cost me aprox. 40% of my monthly profit.

So what is your biggest ever mistake in arbing, that cost you most?

Hello guys

As you said ,every arber has made some mistakes,at least from the beggining of his career.
I am working officially one month as arb trader and 3 days ago i found a sure bet in BASEBALL and the match starts next day,so after 2 days i logged in ,to the 2  bookmakers which i bet that match and i saw each bookmakers had profit, i was wandering.....to make the long story short i found the mistake..that teams was playing the next day, and after next day again, but the funny was, i bet in one leg which playing next day and the other leg which playing after next day. finally each leg won..
Really, i was very lucky but we have to be more concentrated ,because, we are working without luck
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:34 pm

Hello guys

As you said ,every arber has made some mistakes,at least from the beggining of his career.
I am working officially one month as arb trader and 3 days ago i found a sure bet in BASEBALL and the match starts next day,so after 2 days i logged in ,to the 2  bookmakers which i bet that match and i saw each bookmakers had profit, i was wandering.....to make the long story short i found the mistake..that teams was playing the next day, and after next day again, but the funny was, i bet in one leg which playing next day and the other leg which playing after next day. finally each leg won..
Really, i was very lucky but we have to be more concentrated ,because, we are working without luck
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:10 pm

sotras1993! wrote: Hello guys

As you said ,every arber has made some mistakes,at least from the beggining of his career.
I am working officially one month as arb trader and 3 days ago i found a sure bet in BASEBALL and the match starts next day,so after 2 days i logged in ,to the 2  bookmakers which i bet that match and i saw each bookmakers had profit, i was wandering.....to make the long story short i found the mistake..that teams was playing the next day, and after next day again, but the funny was, i bet in one leg which playing next day and the other leg which playing after next day. finally each leg won..
Really, i was very lucky but we have to be more concentrated ,because, we are working without luck
At least you aren't crying scam like the other guy that posted a thread up here about the same issue with baseball, where they were playing on different days and Betburger had put up the arb incorrectly and he was blaming Betburger for mistakenly putting the arb up and he wasn't taking responsibility for him not checking the details himself.

You sound like you have taken responsibility and you understand that it was your error that you need to be more careful next time, but of course the fact you won both sides and came out with a big profit probably helped that frame of mind and I'm not sure how you would have taken it if you had lost both sides and come out at a big loss.

But this re-enforces the fact that whatever an alert service etc says, we as individuals have to double and triple check everything ourselves as it is our ultimate responsibility to make sure the arb is correct.

It also re-enforces to me that it is far too risky for anybody that is thinking of coming up with or have already come up with an automated system that places bets for you as I think that this kind of error would surely happen quite regularly on an automated system placing bets automatically for you and in the end at some point would surely cause multiple catastrophic losses without you even knowing about it until it is too late. It's just like people who use automated systems with betting exchanges, I just wouldn't trust it for me to go out for a few hours and leave it on automation and trust that it won't have a massive mess up and risk significant money of mine so in my view, automated arbing is far too risky and the only way you should be arbing is to place bets manually as that makes it as risk free as possible and doesn't take a far too risky approach of automated arbing as with manually placing bets, you are in control and you are not at the mercy of an automated computer program that could go wrong at any point.

Even when placing bets manually though, we should only use an alert service as a guide, with manual checking of all details of an arb by each of us as individuals as the final confirmation that an arb is actually genuine.
Last edited by luctens on Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:50 pm

Greed, and not hedging the other side when the odds move or the line disappears....holding onto it and then just losing the whole lot...worst thing it happened twice, 2 days in a row, each time it cost me £300  ;D ;D :o
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:45 pm

majkara wrote: Greed, and not hedging the other side when the odds move or the line disappears....holding onto it and then just losing the whole lot...worst thing it happened twice, 2 days in a row, each time it cost me £300  ;D ;D :o
Proper rookie mistake that one, especially not learning your lesson after the first one. You've always got to remember, there are plenty more arbs in the sea ;D, so if the odds change or whatever, always hedge out for a smaller profit or as small a loss as you can and then simply move onto the next arb and any loss you may have made will most likely be made back within minutes on future arbs.

Under no circumstances ever let the bet ride, as you didn't come into arbing to gamble, and letting the bet ride is you doing exactly that, in seconds you've turned from a smart arber into a reckless mug.
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:50 pm

Agreed Luctens.  It seems that whenever you make an error, or let a position run, 95% of the time it will lose.  Its uncanny how many errors have cost me money compared to ones that made me money.
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:54 pm

dealer wins wrote: Agreed Luctens.  It seems that whenever you make an error, or let a position run, 95% of the time it will lose.  Its uncanny how many errors have cost me money compared to ones that made me money.
Sod's law indeed. However, sod's law revolves around luck, and an arber's job is to remove luck from the equation, and then the rest will take care of itself.
Last edited by luctens on Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:01 pm

Actually, dealer wins, it's a psychological thing: losses tend to be remembered and hurt much more than the times we win. I don't know if it was 4x or even 10x, you can google and read about it. So maybe you didn't really lose that much by letting them run and it's only your impression. If you look coldly at it there should be no objective reason why you lose more than you win (I think). What is certain is that you take more risks by letting them run...

I agree that always closing positions is a good advice to people starting out. But is this really what you do, as experienced arbers, independent of whether odds go up or down and how much? I'm not sure this is optimal, specially from a theoretical point of view, and practicalities can be discussed. Of course it's the safe way to go and we all know about risk/reward: there must ALWAYS be an extra reward for taking extra risks, else there's no point in taking them. But think about it, short version of some ideas: when you arb, there's value in at least one side, or probably in both / all sides. Once odds have moved, how can you be sure that odds you are going to bet on have move accordingly to the odds change in the actual game, retaining that original value? Betting on those new odds might just be a 'hedge as best as you can' situation, which might perfectly well be EV- and give you negative returns in the long run (in exchange for reducing variance, of course, which is a very good thing). Specially since different books move odds differently. What you can certainly know is original odds were good as they were part of an arb situation (let's assume not a palp on the other side, of course), but what about after they've moved?

Just a thought :D
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:20 pm

barbero wrote: Actually, dealer wins, it's a psychological thing: losses tend to be remembered and hurt much more than the times we win. I don't know if it was 4x or even 10x, you can google and read about it. So maybe you didn't really lose that much by letting them run and it's only your impression. If you look coldly at it there should be no objective reason why you lose more than you win (I think). What is certain is that you take more risks by letting them run...

I agree that always closing positions is a good advice to people starting out. But is this really what you do, as experienced arbers, independent of whether odds go up or down and how much? I'm not sure this is optimal, specially from a theoretical point of view, and practicalities can be discussed. Of course it's the safe way to go and we all know about risk/reward: there must ALWAYS be an extra reward for taking extra risks, else there's no point in taking them. But think about it, short version of some ideas: when you arb, there's value in at least one side, or probably in both / all sides. Once odds have moved, how can you be sure that odds you are going to bet on have move accordingly to the odds change in the actual game, retaining that original value? Betting on those new odds might just be a 'hedge as best as you can' situation, which might perfectly well be EV- and give you negative returns in the long run (in exchange for reducing variance, of course, which is a very good thing). Specially since different books move odds differently. What you can certainly know is original odds were good as they were part of an arb situation (let's assume not a palp on the other side, of course), but what about after they've moved?

Just a thought :D
What you're talking about is value betting, not arbing. If you are arbing and the price decreases after placing the first leg of the arb, you shouldn't have any thoughts of whether the new price is value or not, as arbing is about removing risk and luck from the equation, so whether the new price represents a smaller win or having to take a loss, you always need to close out the arb the best you can and under no circumstances whatsoever let the bet run.

If you are a value bettor, It doesn't matter whether you think the decreased price is value or not, as you would never be looking to back the second leg anyway and you would be always letting the perceived value leg run and if you were that way inclined to be a value bettor, the existing second leg arb price you would view as -EV in the first place, so a further decreased price of that is only going to be further -EV in your mind.

But as I said, if you're an arber you just close out every arb the best you can and you don't think about value as you're not doing value betting, or if you're a value bettor, you don't think about what value the second leg of the arb is as you would only ever be betting the first leg of the arb as the perceived value bet and letting it run with the thinking that the second leg is always -EV.

So assessing the value of the perceived -EV second leg of an arb should never come into the equation, as if you're an arber you're going to close off the arb in all circumstances, and if you're a value bettor, you were never going to bet the perceived -EV second leg of the arb in the first place.
Last edited by luctens on Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:42 pm

Hi luc, I get your point. If you are gonna arb and wanna stick to that, just close out any open position. That's clear. But before we continue, I must say I disagree in your talking about arbing and valuebetting as of two absolutely separate worlds, as if it always were a mistake for an arber to place a bet and let it run, or to a value bettor to close out a position. A bit of a straitjacket, isn't it, to have to stick to one strategy? In fact, I wasn't talking about valuebetting, just suggesting that the optimal way to react to odds movements might not be so straightforward. We can call it valuebetting, that's OK, but it is really arbing and reacting in different ways according to what the situation is. Anyway that's just a name, we know what we mean ;)

For me, the smart way to go is to try to figure out which strategy suits best each market situation, and in the particular case of odds movement, try to know how to react, whether it's good to close a position or not. Of course, that's easy to say but not so easy to do (do it properly) and this is where questions arise and we can discuss ideas, such as the one I was pointing out as a possible reason to not always hedge. But this is if we agree that sure & value betting go hand in hand, else your previous post made it crystal clear.

So my question was (or intended to be) deeper than the difference between valuebetting and arbing: what do you big guys actually do? I know what I do: sometimes I close, sometimes I don't (and no, it does not depend on whether I think 'I am gonna win' ;D, which really IS gambling). I thought I'd share it as it's interesting to hear why you are so sure that always hedging is the way to go, or what is your actual strategy :)
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:08 pm

barbero wrote: Hi luc, I get your point. If you are gonna arb and wanna stick to that, just close out any open position. That's clear. But before we continue, I must say I disagree in your talking about arbing and valuebetting as of two absolutely separate worlds, as if it always were a mistake for an arber to place a bet and let it run, or to a value bettor to close out a position. A bit of a straitjacket, isn't it, to have to stick to one strategy? In fact, I wasn't talking about valuebetting, just suggesting that the optimal way to react to odds movements might not be so straightforward. We can call it valuebetting, that's OK, but it is really arbing and reacting in different ways according to what the situation is. Anyway that's just a name, we know what we mean ;)

For me, the smart way to go is to try to figure out which strategy suits best each market situation, and in the particular case of odds movement, try to know how to react, whether it's good to close a position or not. Of course, that's easy to say but not so easy to do (do it properly) and this is where questions arise and we can discuss ideas, such as the one I was pointing out as a possible reason to not always hedge. But this is if we agree that sure & value betting go hand in hand, else your previous post made it crystal clear.

So my question was (or intended to be) deeper than the difference between valuebetting and arbing: what do you big guys actually do? I know what I do: sometimes I close, sometimes I don't (and no, it does not depend on whether I think 'I am gonna win' ;D, which really IS gambling). I thought I'd share it as it's interesting to hear why you are so sure that always hedging is the way to go, or what is your actual strategy :)
If after I place the first leg of the arb, the odds of the second leg of the arb changes whether it changes up or down, I have no thoughts or strategy different to what I would have done if the price hadn't changed, I simply close out the arb as normal with whatever the best odds that are available at that time.

I came into arbing for as risk free as possible betting, so I never think I'll let this one run or anything like that regardless of what the market is like or where the odds have moved to, I always close out the arb as quickly as possible and at the best price as possible and then move onto the next arb.
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:13 pm

Got it. Fair enough :)
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:40 pm

barbero wrote: Hi luc, I get your point. If you are gonna arb and wanna stick to that, just close out any open position. That's clear. But before we continue, I must say I disagree in your talking about arbing and valuebetting as of two absolutely separate worlds, as if it always were a mistake for an arber to place a bet and let it run, or to a value bettor to close out a position. A bit of a straitjacket, isn't it, to have to stick to one strategy? In fact, I wasn't talking about valuebetting, just suggesting that the optimal way to react to odds movements might not be so straightforward. We can call it valuebetting, that's OK, but it is really arbing and reacting in different ways according to what the situation is. Anyway that's just a name, we know what we mean ;)

For me, the smart way to go is to try to figure out which strategy suits best each market situation, and in the particular case of odds movement, try to know how to react, whether it's good to close a position or not. Of course, that's easy to say but not so easy to do (do it properly) and this is where questions arise and we can discuss ideas, such as the one I was pointing out as a possible reason to not always hedge. But this is if we agree that sure & value betting go hand in hand, else your previous post made it crystal clear.

So my question was (or intended to be) deeper than the difference between valuebetting and arbing: what do you big guys actually do? I know what I do: sometimes I close, sometimes I don't (and no, it does not depend on whether I think 'I am gonna win' ;D, which really IS gambling). I thought I'd share it as it's interesting to hear why you are so sure that always hedging is the way to go, or what is your actual strategy :)
I see your point and you have a very valid one. You really want to identify what is the 'offender' in your arb and only trade that. I have done that a few times but only on bet365 where I have a cash out almost always. In 90% of the cases, they will offer me a cash out for profit, and sometimes actually larger than what the original arb % was. That is just my thoughts but I still stick to closing all positions immediately.
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:27 am

Yay, that's it! Interesting thoughts majkara. I mean something like that, but not necessarily counting on a cash-out option, rather letting it run. The idea is the same though.

What I wanted was to encourage some thought & discussion ;) but in order not to confuse any newcomers, I must say that I believe luctens' way is the absolutely right way to go unless you are VERY sure - and even so - of what you are trying to do. Else, you will be running unnecessary risks which go against the whole purpose of arbing - removing risks.

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