What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

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majkara
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Mon Oct 10, 2016 1:00 pm

barbero wrote: Yay, that's it! Interesting thoughts majkara. I mean something like that, but not necessarily counting on a cash-out option, rather letting it run. The idea is the same though.

What I wanted was to encourage some thought & discussion ;) but in order not to confuse any newcomers, I must say that I believe luctens' way is the absolutely right way to go unless you are VERY sure - and even so - of what you are trying to do. Else, you will be running unnecessary risks which go against the whole purpose of arbing - removing risks.
In essence this is value betting, but a different kind of value betting where you attempt to identify the offender, and then at least in my case wait for the odds to shorten and then cash out even before the event starts. That is how I attempted it, so you can in a way call it a 'semi-arb' that identifies the offender, trades that as a value bet without hedging the other side, and then wait for the odds to shorten so you can cash out. Even in the instance where you dont have a cash out option, you will still be able to hedge yourself before the start of the event as the hedge side of the arb is the real true value which will stay there. Also, this is another way of identifying potential 'palps' in your arb which I have also done a few times, and every time it turned out to be a palp  ;D :D ;D ;)

Let me know how you get on with this strategy and if you do decide to actually let the bet run, which is not what I would recommend, unless you gear your whole strategy towards this approach.
maletaja
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:04 pm

When i switched to valuebetting most of part. My mistakes diminished dramatically
a)no void bet problems
b)no timing problem just before game
c)less bookies
Zizou79
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:17 pm

Did it yesterday (I'm sure I will do more in the future). Saw there was a possibility for an arb between two soft bookies, but by the time I was going to place the bets, one of the bookies had removed this match. However, I had not noticed, and instead of looking at the team names, I saw the odds of another match which had the similar odds of this removed match, and unaware of this, I bet on two different matches with two different bookies. Needless to say, both teams I had backed lost (even the 1.30 favourite)  :( That practically wiped almost all of this month' profit. The urge was to chase the losses, but I tried to hold back.
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:43 pm

Yesterday was biggest crash
Scanner spiked one NHL event. I usually controll lines manually..
Then i found surebet over/under 4.5 smth like 1.7/2.7. I verified other lines and i was suprised why weak lines are not moving. Controlled dates and everything. It was fishy, becouse even some other fast soft bookie didnt react. I convinced myself that scanner wont find them and im the onlyone who find these lines.(a fey hours ago i had +10 handicap(20% value) middle basketball which didnt hit..and event is about to start in 20 minutes
Then i suddenly found 2 NHL events with EXTRA TIME and regular hours and felt i was shocked that i had made biggest mistake-big bets were already made...
I created negative middle...I went to sleep not to see that nightmare. In the morning i thought myselt-please no extra time...
i was stunned...result were 2-2 OT 1. Biggest nightmare probably. All bets lost. A few hour ago i had +10points middle(20% value) in basketball which didnt hit-so it was extra painful
Arbing has only one problem-when you lose u lose much
Last edited by maletaja on Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
showMeDaMoney
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:26 pm

My biggest mistakes in arbing so far:

1) one side i choose (first half) - Other side choose full time
- team scored nothing in first and everything in second.

2) BTS = No ( right team, but wrong match)
Somehow recovered and made money.

3) Cricket choose Womens team instead of Men.
Lucky for me both sides won

4) combined EH with AH but lost money as I didnt understand the difference in HC.
Was ( small loss) and know more now.

Other Mistakes:
- Wrong calculations(for lay bets)
- Wrong calculations(on different bookmakers)
- Choosing bookies that are prone to limiting
- Not giving enough time to double check the bets
- Spending too much time checking the bets. (odds change)
- Order of Bookmakers, (i.e limiting, odds changing)
Choosing correct order that wont change the odds)
- Playing markets that I dont understand, i.e hockey
- Using earnings to make bets that are not (surebets)

I'm sure I'll make more... but try not to make the same mistake twice
showMeDaMoney
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:21 am

I'd like to add to that.

Choosing Reserves instead of Full Time outfit.

I thought arbing was supposed to be easy, far out you have to be so precise and no offense but some of these automated programs can lead you on the path to losing alot of money.)

The only problem is once you double check everything, the bets gone.
svevlad
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:39 am

tenis i "find arbs manualy" ofc boths side lost and i lost 4500eur
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:44 am

svevlad wrote: tenis i "find arbs manualy" ofc boths side lost and i lost 4500eur
And the mistake?...
Smart Bet Tracker
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svevlad
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:02 pm

i mix up set hendicap and correct score and if game finish 0:2 i lost both side and ofc game end 1:6 2:6
reactor69
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:58 pm

my biggest mistake was betting on 1xbet. I get there 200€ and about few days I`ve had 2000€. They blocked my account, and gave me back only deposited 200€.
maletaja
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:14 am

[quote][my biggest mistake was betting on 1xbet. I get there 200€ and about few days I`ve had 2000€. They blocked my account, and gave me back only deposited 200€./quote]
It should be bonus issue?
What was the reason for not pay you<?
showMeDaMoney
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:01 pm

Scary seeing the stories of 1xbet on sportsbook.

Doesn't look like arbing is showing me the money, although I am starting to be able to pick winners based on bookies+ odds combinations.)

More mistake from me... :cry
- Betting on tennis, (if match is retired the bet is void) - happens often these days due to schedules and players not want risk injury.
- Betting using program (just because you get a confirmation on RB, doesn't mean the bet is live) Should take screenshots.
Offshore Insider
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:25 am

my biggest mistake was when i first began many moons ago...

i bet on a baseball underdog +140 and a favorite on the -1.5 runline at +125. i didn't know that it wasnt a true arb as i was a rookie... i would lose if the favorite won the game by 1 run.. and sure enough the favorite won by 1 run.. biggest mistake i made thinking i was 'arbing'
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:25 pm

Biggest MIstakes in Arbing

Not covering the other side after a line move or mistake.
Thinking you will get an opportunity to cover in Live Betting.
Not betting the soft line first.
Miscalculations or mistakes rushing to get an Arb in just before the match start time.
Mistakes reading lines, team names, dates, men vs women, youth vs regular, game vs. series, etc.
Al45
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Re: What's your biggest ever mistake in arbing?

Sun May 07, 2017 2:22 pm

Exchanged the insider and outsider. By mistake, I put the larger amount on the outsider. Live play, 1 minute before the outsider scored the goal. @Pinnacle.
I guess other bookies would flag me as a terrorist from betting mafia.

Other times it happened, I was not so lucky, but in overall, I am around 0.

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