Arbusers

Poker vs. Sports Betting – Which one makes you more money in 2025?

In this video, we break down the pros and cons of both, comparing the grind, the skill ceiling, and the ROI of poker versus modern sports betting strategies like value betting and arbitrage. Read the full comparison here.

With tools like RebelBetting, sports betting has become more mathematical, scalable, and predictable – no bluffing, no tilt, no endless hours at the tables.

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I always enjoy Michael's videos.

In retrospect, I regret starting from betting back in the (distant) days. Poker was paying far better back then, and the money was easier and faster. Because of the abundance of profits, the bot industry started from poker, and when the competition (among bots) became hard, they jumped to the betting industry around 2012-14. That was the time when it became very difficult to manually compete with bots.

Unfortunately, there was no mentors to guide me to poker, and had to start from scratch with betting. But in any case, I feel blessed for my path, as we all should feel blessed.

But even if you quit everything and get out of the gambling scene, it is the knowledge that stays, and this is priceless.

Mikael is right.

Poker skills like probabilistic thinking, bankroll management, psychological discipline, and exploiting inefficiencies translate very well to arbitrage, value betting, and other smart betting techniques. These players are already very well trained in risk-reward analysis and especially variance that helps massively understand value betting.

Let me insist in variance. Variance is learned faster via poker. It is learned slowly with arbitrage, and it is learned in mid speed with value betting. Thus, poker players are well suited for value betting, and less suited for arbitrage.

However, the challenges remain the same in both spheres. Operational friction, need for funds, limits, bans and all this misery that bookmakers have. I m sure it is better in the US (as always).

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 29, 2025 12:48 pm

I always enjoy Michael's videos.

In retrospect, I regret starting from betting back in the (distant) days. Poker was paying far better back then, and the money was easier and faster. Because of the abundance of profits, the bot industry started from poker, and when the competition (among bots) became hard, they jumped to the betting industry around 2012-14. That was the time when it became very difficult to manually compete with bots.

Unfortunately, there was no mentors to guide me to poker, and had to start from scratch with betting. But in any case, I feel blessed for my path, as we all should feel blessed.

But even if you quit everything and get out of the gambling scene, it is the knowledge that stays, and this is priceless.

Marketing videos are rarely honest. He's like wow poker is so hard and difficult come value betting with our software. There is no long term money in the whole steam chasing, comparing lines, arbing with softbooks thing. It's fun and profitable for a few months that is actually true until you are limit everywhere to 10 cent bets. For that reason alone poker is actually much better in the sense that it actually has more long term profits then using some rebelbetting software. At best you can do it a few times over on your friends and family accounts until you are complete out of any account.

Why would guys like this constantly need new customers for their software? A good and profitable system never get sold, it just get used to bet. Because they are probably limited also everywhere themselves so they have to resort to selling software.

There is just no longevity in it. I think the only way to make long term money betting sports is with some actual knowledge. You need to have an idea yourself how something should be priced to win at any sharp place. Arbing, value betting like this is very hard on any sharp or exchange. You would need super fast bots etc that are better then this retail software. If you can have a speed advantage it's possible, otherwise not. It's like the stockmarket and high frequency trading. The arms race to be the quickest. Then how easy is it really?

Betting is not sustainable in the long run unless you have resources. Once the resources gone, there is nothing to do with betting and RebelBetting. Unless there is something unseen, a best kept secret, that still makes you money.

On the other hand, Poker's only resource needed is mind clarity. True, competition is gone up, but for as long as you are better than average, you will make at least something.

niel wrote: ↑

Thu May 01, 2025 2:20 am

There is just no longevity in it. I think the only way to make long term money betting sports is with some actual knowledge. You need to have an idea yourself how something should be priced to win at any sharp place. Arbing, value betting like this is very hard on any sharp or exchange. You would need super fast bots etc that are better then this retail software. If you can have a speed advantage it's possible, otherwise not. It's like the stockmarket and high frequency trading. The arms race to be the quickest. Then how easy is it really?

Even if someone is using their own models and not being steam chaser it would not last forever with soft bookmakers. Unfortunately we can't hide profits and sooner or later they will ban anyone who makes profit consistently. I guess someone could use their own models with sharps but that is soooo hard.

Not sure how difficult it is to make money in poker, never tried it but I guess it is pretty much as hard as winning at sharp bookies. The only ones that make serious money in this field and can do that long term are elite sharp players, people that run "shady" operations of multi accounting and software providers like alert services.

I used to do multi accounting but transitioned into providing software services for bot betting and that allows me to stay in the industry for a long time. I guess for most people the only option to make consistent profits in the industry of smart betting would be multi accounting

I think the only way to make long term money betting sports is with some actual knowledge. You need to have an idea yourself how something should be priced to win at any sharp place. Arbing, value betting like this is very hard on any sharp or exchange.

Yes, this aligns with my experience. But if you think about it, the reason is that you are providing actual new information to the market, information that the bookmakers or other market participants either ignored, neglected, or did not model properly. As Pinnacle's famous trading director Marco Blume once said in an interview (I'm paraphrasing here - I don't remember his exact words), you are being compensated by Pinnacle (or any other sharp bookmaker/exchange) in exchange for providing new, useful information that helps them sharpen their odds (directly with a sharp bookmaker, indirectly with an exchange). And I will add that when/if you don't provide novel and useful information anymore, you will stop making money consistently because your knowledge is already incorporated in the sharp bookmaker's odds.

Betting is not sustainable in the long run unless you have resources. Once the resources gone, there is nothing to do with betting and RebelBetting. Unless there is something unseen, a best kept secret, that still makes you money.

On the other hand, Poker's only resource needed is mind clarity. True, competition is gone up, but for as long as you are better than average, you will make at least something.

I only partially agree. Yes, for sustainable betting you need "something unseen" that still makes you money (see my explanation above), but for this you don't need a ton of material resources. However, you do need mind clarity as you said, as well as the ability to put your knowledge into practice. But if you have this, "for as long as you are better than average, you will make at least something" (I can confirm this from personal experience).

I guess someone could use their own models with sharps but that is soooo hard.

Yes it is hard, but if you can do this you can bet profitably and sustainably for a long time without ever being blocked/restricted, as long as you are providing new and useful information to the market.

Thanks for the honest takes—it's refreshing.

You're absolutely right that no tool will keep working forever if you're just copying steam or not evolving. That said, value betting with RebelBetting isn't sold as a get-rich-forever scheme. It's a strategy to extract value where there's still inefficiency, especially in the short to mid-term.

Yes, limits will come. Yes, sharp books are hard. But for a lot of users, the money made in the first 3–6 months already justifies the effort—and then some. And sure, we market the tool because it's a business—but it's also helped thousands learn the ropes and get started with positive EV.

No magic, just numbers and discipline.

RB's post is only addressing a unique angle of the issue. A more general question would be: What is the smart betting technique that allows most profit to be made, with less possible friction?

And if you put everything on the table my answer would be Value Betting using market inefficiencies and automation. But once you get to that level you will notice there are side profits not to be generously left aside. If we strip away promotional abuse and look purely at skill-based methods then I would call it a Model-driven value betting combined with market timing and automation (bots/APIs). It is the technique that allows for the highest and most sustainable profits. Some of the boys here are getting it pretty well, you can see it in their posts. But they don't reveal much and I understand them perfectly well.

If we strip away promotional abuse and look purely at skill-based methods then I would call it a Model-driven value betting combined with market timing and automation (bots/APIs). It is the technique that allows for the highest and most sustainable profits.

Amen.

The only thing I would add is that, to be sustainable over the long term, your model-driven value betting method has to be good enough to be profitable with sharp bookmakers (it was probably obvious to you but I emphasize this for the benefit of other readers). I see the initial profits one can get with soft bookmakers as just a head start; if one wants to bet sustainably and profitably over a long time, without wasting energy with multiple accounts or other similar schemes, sooner or later it becomes clear that the approach involving "the least possible friction" (as you said) is to find a systematic method to be able to bet profitably with sharp bookmakers.

No modelling was needed 10-15-20 years ago as money came easy in the traditional way. Modelling was needed once the barriers became unbearable. As for the sharps, they pay their fees to you guys. Because they allow you to have 5-10 decent bets and then they learn from their mistakes, and they close the loopholes forcing you to move to the next trick.

where do you take this that bots are in poker world. Most trustworthy big sites are still regulated and free from bots although nothing can be proved