Arbusers

So, I have an entry in a World Cup competition that sees £33,333 divided equally between everybody with the same prediction for the top three placed teams in the World Cup.

My prediction was

1. Croatia
2. France
3. Belgium

Now that Belgium have secured 3rd place, it all comes down to the final. If the favourites win, I get nothing. If Croatia win, I win a share of the £33,333 prize.

I am facing a dilemma of whether or not I should place a bet on France to win the World Cup in order to guarantee a profit no matter what happens. The problem is that, because the prize fund is divided equally between all winners, I have no idea how much I will win should Croatia win.

Should I put money on France to win the World Cup in order to guarantee a profit? If so, how much? Because I have no idea how many others have made the same prediction, I can't risk too much or I may end up losing money.

How many people will share these £33.333?

Should I put money on France to win the World Cup in order to guarantee a profit? If so, how much? ...  I can't risk too much or I may end up losing money.

I think your last sentence already answers your question - don't bet so much on France that you would be uncomfortable losing that in case Croatia wins and the payout of the competition happens to be very small. In case you would normally risk 1%, 0.5% or what ever size you normally use your valuebets where your exact edge is not clear, I wouldnt risk more than 2-3x that stake, depending obviously on the size of your bankroll (the smaller the bankroll, the more I would be willing to risk because the max payout of 33333GBP is the only constant factor to consider in how to hedge your position).

I would say not many people, if anyone would have selected these 3 teams.

But unless you know, theres nothing you can do but pray for Croatia to win, if they score 1st maybe throw £1000 on France!!!

Arbusers wrote: How many people will share these £33.333?

Every single person with the same prediction. If I am the only one, I would win £33,333. If 100,000 people have the same prediction, I would win 33p.

dealer wins wrote: I would say not many people, if anyone would have selected these 3 teams.

I am expecting that there will be 1-3 others with the same prediction, but I really have no idea. I doubt that there will be more than 10.

To put things into perspective, I won £1000 from a £5000 pool on the same website back in December for correctly guessing the result of 10 matches. It was something like:

Arsenal to beat Newcastle
Brighton to draw with Burnley
Chelsea to beat Southampton
Everton to beat Swansea
Liverpool to beat Bournemouth
Man City to beat Tottenham
Man Utd to beat West Brom

Barcelona to beat Deportivo
Bilbao to draw with Sociedad
Las Palmas to draw with Espanyol

Given that all of the strong favourites won, I was expecting to win barely anything from it, yet only four other people had made the same prediction. Based on that, it wouldn't be too surprising if I was the only winner here.

But unless you know, theres nothing you can do but pray for Croatia to win, if they score 1st maybe throw £1000 on France!!!

£1000 is probably about the max that's worth putting on France but, as they're the favourite, the return won't be much. Waiting until the match starts could make that even worse as, if France take the lead the winnings will be even less.

doozy wrote:

Arbusers wrote: How many people will share these £33.333?

Every single person with the same prediction. If I am the only one, I would win £33,333. If 100,000 people have the same prediction, I would win 33p.

dealer wins wrote: I would say not many people, if anyone would have selected these 3 teams.

I am expecting that there will be 1-3 others with the same prediction, but I really have no idea. I doubt that there will be more than 10.

You doubt there are more than 10 people who made the same selection. IMO this is the key question to your dilemma. If you are able to answer it correctly, then you will also be able to make the best profit out of this situation.
So lets suppose that you guessed correctly that 10 people made the same correct selection and Croatia makes it till the end lifting the World Cup 2018.
In this case you are going home with £3.333. If more people made the same selection your share drops. If less people were correct, your share increases.
As I see the odds at this time, France has 1.45 to take it home and Croatia 3.00.
I would bet £2298 for France.
Here are the scenarios from now on:

1. If France takes the World Cup, you go home with £1034.

2. If Croatia takes the World Cup and exactly 10 people made the same selection like you, you goo home with £1034.

3. If Croatia takes the World Cup and less than 10 people made the same selection like you, you go home with more than £1034.
-9 correct selections means £1405 for you.
-8 correct selections means £1868 for you.
-7 correct selections means £2463 for you.
-6 correct selections means £3257 for you.
-5 correct selections means £4368 for you.
-4 correct selections means £6035 for you.
-3 correct selections means £8813 for you.
-2 correct selections means £14368 for you.
-You are the only one that made the correct selection means £31.035 for you.

4. If Croatia takes the World Cup and 11 to 14 people made the same selection like you, you go home with less than £1034.
-11 correct selections means £732 for you.
-12 correct selections means £479 for you.
-13 correct selections means £266 for you.
-14 correct selections means £82 for you.

5. If Croatia takes the World Cup and more than 14 people made the same selection like you, you lose money.

Maybe it worths asking those who organise this competition how many people made the same correct selection.
If you don't have an answer to this, you will have to just guess how many people made the same selection and then act accordingly. If this competition has much Croatian Audience, then you should expect more Croatian votes for Croatia.
Logically, the final's couple is indeed a surprise as far as it concerns Croatia, so you might find your self somewhere in scenarios 1 and 3 with 1 to 4 correct selections. All of these would guarantee a profit of £1034 to £31.035.

Alternatively you could take a very long shot, assuming that all correct answers are 4 and you then make the correct calculations.

Whatever happens, please let us know what your decision is and what happened in the end.

Ask the people who run the competition how many entries have the same picks as you. If you're sure they will pay you if you win then you will know exactly how much to place on France. Personally I think France will win because Croatia are a great side but lack an out and out goal scorer in the mould of a Griezmann. Mbappe's pace causes havoc against opposition defences and they are scared to make a tackle as the Ref's give Penalty kicks for minor fouls and even accidental hand balls these days.

it's a personal thing, but in situations like this i usually just let it ride. you don't know the variables involved (and even more difficult for us to say without knowing which contest you entered), either you're lucky, or (most likely) in this case you're not.  i don't know what your bank is, so it's difficult for me to judge, but either way it likely won't have a huge impact on your life, just a nice bonus.

just for reference:  because it was free and i was bored, i guessed the goalscorer and the minute of the 1st goal of the CL final. i had the goalscorer right but was off by one minute, so I was intrigued. turned out 11 peope did get both right, which was a lot more than I would have thought beforehand. Croatia is a bit of a wildcard in your selection, the others not so much: there might be more people with the same selection than you think.

Arbusers wrote:Whatever happens, please let us know what your decision is and what happened in the end.

I completely agree with your assessment and would like to stick £2000-2500 on France to win the World Cup.

However, I have decided to just leave this one to chance and I will hope that Croatia win.

I made this decision as the terms and conditions of the competition can essentially allow them to not pay out. While it is unlikely that they will refuse to pay out, it isn't worth the risk in case they do.

That is a new factor that you bring in.
Let me wish you all the good luck with your decision and please let us know in case you win.

Nobody made that prediction obviously,the odds of that happening are in the thousands area (someone picking 1st croatian then france then belg etc of the powerhourses nations and in that order is riducoulsy low)
you should ve hedged,clear one

MisterRodriguez wrote: Nobody made that prediction obviously,the odds of that happening are in the thousands area (someone picking 1st croatian then france then belg etc of the powerhourses nations and in that order is riducoulsy low)
you should ve hedged,clear one

Thanks captain Hindsight.

edit: i agree on the odds in the thousands area.  but how many people do you think actually play in those wc tournaments of some of the big books?  in the tens of thousands at the very least.  as we don't know what contest the OP joined, no way for you or me to tell.

Unlucky mate, if that was me I would have been in a sweat watching the final today!!

dealer wins wrote: Unlucky mate, if that was me I would have been in a sweat watching the final today!!

Instead of sweat, you should be in beer today.

Arbusers wrote:

dealer wins wrote: Unlucky mate, if that was me I would have been in a sweat watching the final today!!

Instead of sweat, you should be in beer today.

LOL Its been a good world cup, very good even!!!