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Yield/roi

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Narkis
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Yield/roi

Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:04 pm

Questions mainly for expierenced valuebettors with some statistics!

1) what is real/possible yield abd roi on long distance, example for year of valuebetting or 10k bets?
2) do you expierence that your yield grows together with your expierence?
3) most valuable sport or market on your expierence?
L
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Re: Yield/roi

Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:24 pm

1) Very hard to give one general answer on this question because so many things can influence that - number and quality of bookies which are available to you, your risk tolerance, the average EV you aim to take and much much more. Personally for me it was always around 5-6% yield per bet.

2) For sure! The more experience I gain the better results become because my filters always become more and more sharp as a result of the accumulated experience. That being said there are times when results can become worse too, usually if some changes occur, e.g. when some bookie becomes more sharp and creates more value traps or when some changes in rules are introduced, etc.

3) At least for me it is Soccer and 1x2 market.
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Re: Yield/roi

Sun Nov 07, 2021 4:05 am

My value betting stats since 11-Aug-2018. Keep in mind I have a full time job and betting is my side hustle.

1. Wagers = 4419, Yield = 7.5%
2. Experience helps when you get limited and have to find value elsewhere both in places to bet and wager types.
3. I think the only sport I am down in is volleyball. Soccer has the highest yield, primary and secondary leagues.
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Re: Yield/roi

Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:04 am

Much of my value betting has been in shops since 2017.

Year/# of bets/yield

2017 / 429 / 7,66 %
2018 / 2122 / 5,43 %
2019 / 4072 / 7,7 %
2020 / 2204 / 9,91 %
2021 / 898 / 12,9 %

There seems to be a clear development in yield. I see this as an indication that I am evolving at a faster rate than the bookmakers do.

Back in 2017, I would just have 1 indication for a value bet: if it was an arb with a sharp book.

Today I go through a mental thought proces including a handfull of tick marks for determining value.

I have become much more sceptic in every case, and I approach every bet from second league or below, with the assumption that it might be a fixed match or manipulated odds.
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Re: Yield/roi

Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:43 am

VidaBlue wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:04 am
Year/# of bets/yield

2017 / 429 / 7,66 %
2018 / 2122 / 5,43 %
2019 / 4072 / 7,7 %
2020 / 2204 / 9,91 %
2021 / 898 / 12,9 %
The general feeling of the market as I witness it from my own projects and talks with dozens of members, is that we are seeing diminishing performances. You are a very rare example of increasing performances. And of course it is obvious this is a result of intensive mental work. You are flourishing in the era of bots. A Herculean task.
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Re: Yield/roi

Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:34 pm

arbusers wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:43 am
VidaBlue wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:04 am
Year/# of bets/yield

2017 / 429 / 7,66 %
2018 / 2122 / 5,43 %
2019 / 4072 / 7,7 %
2020 / 2204 / 9,91 %
2021 / 898 / 12,9 %
The general feeling of the market as I witness it from my own projects and talks with dozens of members, is that we are seeing diminishing performances. You are a very rare example of increasing performances. And of course it is obvious this is a result of intensive mental work. You are flourishing in the era of bots. A Herculean task.
@Arbusers,
@VidaBlue,
Is any collaboration possible between you both? :)
What if Arbusers' projects (assume that they are value bet bots etc.) inject various VidaBlue's ideas? There are software products which may change core engines at given circumstances. If quality managed project done, I believe that profitability due to hardly detectable by bookmakers value bets (and therefore avoiding limits by them) is possible consequence.
Please, let the community know if similar project is possible / in progress and feedback the results in any way. :)
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Re: Yield/roi

Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:14 pm

Is any collaboration possible between you both?
I'd be happy to collaborate with arbusers or anyone for the common good and I'm always open to discuss ideas on skype or here in the forum. Together, we are better and it is always enjoyable to discuss one's passion.

But bear in mind, that the kind of betting I do today is exclusively done in shops and casinos, so offline books. Those books may be less attractive to sharp bettors and therefore my yield on those books could be achieved more easily than at the online books, because the offline books don't need to take as many countermeasures - or maybe not - hard to tell really. It may also be difficult to apply shop betting principles in an online value bot regime. Avoiding limits (shop closure or ban) in the shops and casinos is a very interesting story and completely different from the challenges with online bookmakers, but beyond the scope of this post.

Another approach, is that we share some of our thought processes for determining value in this forum. It could become an interesting inspiration and discussion. I have no formalized approach for determining value. It is an instictive process based on years of practice. I will try to describe it with this example.

My cell phone tells me there is a 20% odd drop at moneyline Lublin W facing Polkowice W.
"What is that?" - "Polish female basket, very small league" :(
"When does it start?" - "In 5 minutes" :)
"What's the limit at pinnacle?" - "high for this league" :)
"How is the trend?" - "It has been steadily dropping over the last ½ hour, there's a consensus in the market" :)
"What's my historic performance for this kind of league/sport/bettype? - medium" :-\
"Is it a good season for value betting?" - "Indeed, always do well in the fall" :)
"Could it be market manipulation in order to raise odds on opposing team?" - "Not so likely ..." :-\
"There are mostly good reasons to take this value bet, I,ll bet a 1.25 x standard stake"

This mental process happens in around 30 seconds, so it really is important to do quick navigation on the phone and decide immediately before the opportunity passes. If there are many bad reasons to take the bet, I sometimes bet on the sharp side. I have a positive yield at the sharps this way, but much less though.

The considerations above are mostly faith- and reason-based, nothing is proven for sure, and I might take a lot of bad decisions still. It is an almost subconscious process, very difficult to describe formally. But if it helps me avoiding just 10% of all the bad decisions I made last year, that may be the improvement from 10% yield to 13% yield the next year.

I would like to hear some of your thought processes as well when determining value.
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Re: Yield/roi

Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:16 pm

VidaBlue wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:14 pm
Is any collaboration possible between you both?
I'd be happy to collaborate with arbusers or anyone for the common good and I'm always open to discuss ideas on skype or here in the forum. Together, we are better and it is always enjoyable to discuss one's passion.

But bear in mind, that the kind of betting I do today is exclusively done in shops and casinos, so offline books. Those books may be less attractive to sharp bettors and therefore my yield on those books could be achieved more easily than at the online books, because the offline books don't need to take as many countermeasures - or maybe not - hard to tell really. It may also be difficult to apply shop betting principles in an online value bot regime. Avoiding limits (shop closure or ban) in the shops and casinos is a very interesting story and completely different from the challenges with online bookmakers, but beyond the scope of this post.

Another approach, is that we share some of our thought processes for determining value in this forum. It could become an interesting inspiration and discussion. I have no formalized approach for determining value. It is an instictive process based on years of practice. I will try to describe it with this example.

My cell phone tells me there is a 20% odd drop at moneyline Lublin W facing Polkowice W.
"What is that?" - "Polish female basket, very small league" :(
"When does it start?" - "In 5 minutes" :)
"What's the limit at pinnacle?" - "high for this league" :)
"How is the trend?" - "It has been steadily dropping over the last ½ hour, there's a consensus in the market" :)
"What's my historic performance for this kind of league/sport/bettype? - medium" :-\
"Is it a good season for value betting?" - "Indeed, always do well in the fall" :)
"Could it be market manipulation in order to raise odds on opposing team?" - "Not so likely ..." :-\
"There are mostly good reasons to take this value bet, I,ll bet a 1.25 x standard stake"

This mental process happens in around 30 seconds, so it really is important to do quick navigation on the phone and decide immediately before the opportunity passes. If there are many bad reasons to take the bet, I sometimes bet on the sharp side. I have a positive yield at the sharps this way, but much less though.

The considerations above are mostly faith- and reason-based, nothing is proven for sure, and I might take a lot of bad decisions still. It is an almost subconscious process, very difficult to describe formally. But if it helps me avoiding just 10% of all the bad decisions I made last year, that may be the improvement from 10% yield to 13% yield the next year.

I would like to hear some of your thought processes as well when determining value.
I think it is very rational and you explained it very rationally. I see no instinct there. You have some indicators and when they are fulfilled, you bet.
Do you follow the steam and bet it after it lowers a little before going even lower in the sharp bookie ? Or you find a bookie which is slower to drop the odds and bet it there ?
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Re: Yield/roi

Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:32 pm

Wolfie wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:16 pm
Do you follow the steam and bet it after it lowers a little before going even lower in the sharp bookie ? Or you find a bookie which is slower to drop the odds and bet it there ?
Plan A: bet offline on the slow bookie = better odds
Plan B: bet sharp side quickly, if I see a landslide movement of odds

In many cases I would observe the general market 10-20 books at the same time, to confirm if the steam is a general tendency. Otherwise it could be a trap or manipulation. I think bet 365 traps a lot nowadays being the only book to lower and noone follows, then they readjust the odds back a couple of minutes after. Pinnacle does that as well, but this may not always be intentional, it is just due to the very low limit on some markets combined with the reputation this book has: 100 dollars from a random gambler may move odds on those books that are hardwired to pinnacle odds. Sometimes pinnacle is indeed used for manipulation, especially on small leagues, probably with the intent of getting higher odds on favorite on books with much higher limits. Happens much on Saturdays.
Not always it is the traditional sharp bookie that is the source for odds changes. Sometimes, some of the big soft books, may be leading in this movement.

All these are just assumptions, but in my mind they are much likely to be true and I bet accordingly.
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Re: Yield/roi

Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:26 pm

VidaBlue wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:32 pm
Sometimes, some of the big soft books, may be leading in this movement.

All these are just assumptions, but in my mind they are much likely to be true and I bet accordingly.
I have noticed some softs leading mostly from big softs in the same country where the league is.
I have arrived at similar assumptions with a different experience from yours. I bet only online, not in shops. So 2 experiences of some years having higher yield from this assumptions, it is a confirmation that we are in a good direction. I think shop value betting has a lot of opportunities but requires more time and effort of course with better yield than online value betting for the reasons you mentioned.
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Re: Yield/roi

Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:28 pm

Good to hear that you have similar observations Wolfie. Which softs do you find particularly strong?

I see that the Kambi system sometimes launch odds completely off market, but in the end they end up being more right than the others. Same goes for bet365, but as before mentioned, I think they do many traps as well, especially in soccer. I find bet365 strong in many cases. For instance early odds in the low basket leagues. Had a good run using bet365 as reference for table tennis as well, a market where there are usually no sharps. Their odds would often go straight from 1.83 to 1.5, 1.4 or 1.33. Others would follow. Huge swings.

As for national bookmakers on national sports. Very true. I go by the same rule. Really, it makes sense. A national bookmaker may be the only book that is actually able to make the manual effort to set the odds right in that particular (low) league - they know things beyond the statistics. So it happens that when they launch their odds they are steady, rock solid and everyone else, including pinnacle, begin aligning their odds with the help of value bettors and arbers.
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Re: Yield/roi

Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:22 am

For the international bookmakers we have the same results. Kambi and bet365. In the kambi group i like most 888sport. It is sharper than Unibet. They put less events than unibet. And it seems that in those events that 888sport decides not to put in, unibet is particulary softer. In my results they are the best for Handball. Bet 365 is good all-round compared to other softs but they have their weak spots too. For the local ones i think it is better for both of us to have an edge. We have already given the direction for those who want to put the effort to explore.
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Re: Yield/roi

Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:27 pm

Thank you so much for your insight Wolfie. It was useful information and a good game of give and take. I agree with you on your last point with the locals - let's leave it at that. Happy betting!
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Re: Yield/roi

Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:44 pm

VidaBlue wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:27 pm
Thank you so much for your insight Wolfie. It was useful information and a good game of give and take. I agree with you on your last point with the locals - let's leave it at that. Happy betting!
Likewise, i find your posts very educating. Thanks, Best of Luck.
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Re: Yield/roi

Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:58 pm

When it comes to value assessment, you may rely on deep level of knowledge about given sport and long time observations (your hypotheses might be created for no time) plus deepest statistical analytics (slower process). In fact you create your own odds and act accordingly. After every event, you have to reevaluate again all the data, before next event. Naturally, after many events your sight is sharpen for any given sport specificity. Deepest the quality analysis, greater the chance for non-trapped you - "strange" things happen from time to time. And last but not least - quality analysis gives you the sport evolution. Every sport evolve globally over the years and every detail of the picture matters. New tactics, players, technologies etc.

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