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Topics - Arbusers

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1
Bookies discussion / WillHill and 'customer friendly' results
« on: January 13, 2017, 06:29:15 AM »
Philip Bowcock, Interim CEO, commented: ''Importantly, the improvements we saw in wagering in Online and Australia in the second half have continued in recent weeks. However, all four divisions saw customer-friendly results at the back end of the year, which translated into profits being c£20m below our prior expectations.''

Let's see who will pay for this.

2
Announcements / Suggestions for the forum
« on: January 05, 2017, 07:47:06 PM »
Guys, we will soon have a redesign of the forum together with some other changes. If you have any ideas that you would like to see here, please let me know.

3
Announcements / Happy New Year 2017
« on: December 31, 2016, 12:55:38 PM »
We wish you good luck and success with everything you do. May 2017 be the best year of them all.
Thank you.

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4
Announcements / Arbusers 6th anniversary
« on: December 29, 2016, 10:24:21 PM »
December 30th. Arbusers forum celebrating its 6th anniversary.
I wish our forum meets your expectations and you found value here that was capitalised accordingly.
I would like to thank you all.

5
Arbing and trading talk / Captain's log 2016
« on: December 27, 2016, 04:06:57 PM »
I meant to do this since years ago but various factors were stopping me each year. The use of the word Captain has no intention to imply that I m the chief or the leading character of this community that expands beyond this forum. I hope I will be able to post a similar review each year so we can all have a time lapse of the smart gambling scene. Also, I encourage all of our members to post their opinion and thus contribute to my effort.

Now allow me to expand a little bit in the main forms of arbitrage and smart gambling and see how they performed during the year.
- We have seen the death rattle of pre game arbitrage. The vast majority of the bookmakers will limit/ban players that will dare to have arbitrage action with them. We came to a point where the allowance of such action from a bookmaker rises reliability questions. Additionally, several bookmakers are adopting aggressive payment policies against such players, delaying or even canceling payments. These policies are based on the hypothesis, that the average punter will not pay a 400 £/hr lawyer in order to get his/her money back and will opt for a complete surrender. A number of punters that took legal help had their money back before going to a UK or a Maltese court. This fact shows the extremely poor business ethics dominating the industry.
- Because of the hostile environment around pre-game arbing, a number of people moved to live arbitrage that proves to be more resilient. This move took place gradually and it became the dominant trend from 2009 until 2016. Live arbitrage guarantees that bookmaker’s accounts will last more and will offer a better profit/hour outcome than pre-game arbing. On the other hand, it has some very harsh characteristics such us extremely work stress and void bets. Successful live arbitrage players, had to do their very first steps on pre-game arbitrage in order to understand the mechanisms and make their brains spin around this concept. It seems that bookmakers are starting to realise that they are losing money from live arbing and they already took some first steps to cease or limit this kind of action. I expect bookmakers to adopt more hostile action against this kind of players, but the overall situation shows that live arbitrage has  more way to go and more profits to give.
- 2016 was the year that made value betting the new accelerating trend. A brooklet that became a stream, soon to become a river. Clever software providers understood this trend and they now offer new products in the market, unimaginable 2-3 years ago. Alert services also understood that there is something new in the market and they already react accordingly. We now see bots that compare prices according to their criteria and they place their bets in already limited bookmaker’s account with good success. The key is the right selection of criteria and  bookmakers. Bookmakers understood that bots are now working against them and they counterattack by changing their terms & conditions, ordering new softwares to their software providers and adopting aggressive payment policies. We are only in the beginning of the trip of value betting and the inventiveness of smart players already thrives. I expect bookmakers and exchanges to bleed before they come up with good ideas on how to stop this kind of action.
- The crown of all smart gambling action remains the arbitrage among sharp books only with the use of bots. This extremely limited number of people operating in this field, are staying in the shadow enjoying the fruits of their ingeniousness, strolling with their dogs at the forests at the very moment when all the others are heart beating in front of their pc.
- Casino advantage gamblers are also facing challenges, as bonuses are getting lower and several casinos are not offering the complete range of services to e-wallets depositors.

I mentioned before the extremely poor business ethics in the industry. A well known exchange, constantly demonstrating its (hypothetical) potential to remove betfair from the top, decided to stop cooperation with several affiliates, cutting several trees that were generating profits for all parties (the exchange, affiliates, players). Another exchange focusing on American markets is also removing players from affiliate trees, or altering the nature of any cooperation with poor or no justification. I am now in position to say, that all exchanges with no exception are looking for ‘’happy losers’’. This is a phrase used by their top managers and strategists. Arbitrage action is indeed providing a lot of revenue for them, but they are looking for ways to make more money by transforming arbers and smart gamblers to long term losers. Mathematics are not on their side and my estimation is that in the end all parties will lose from this.

Another fact is that arbitrage and smart gambling volumes are now taking a bigger part of the pie and this trend is accelerating. As a result bookmakers and agents that used to welcome sharp action are now reducing their risks and subsequently the offered wager limits to sharp players.

The (de)regulation of the markets continues and will continue. During 2016 the Romanian market was vanished in the same way and speed that we have seen in other markets these last years. Some Romanian players are still in the game, but their number is not comparable with what we have seen in the good old years.

E-wallets are becoming more expensive and they will continue in this way for as long as there is no competition. Cash will become even more scarce and expensive. This lack of competition is touching everyone, bookmakers, players and the e-wallets. I hope that everyone wakes up before banks or a Hawala system take all the volumes from the table. These dangers are real and present.

Thankfully, we didn't monitor any major collapse of a bookmaker, the same way we did for GoBetGo during 2014-15.

The best arbing events of the year were the US elections, the EU referendum in the UK and the Eurovision song contest (in this order).

Thankfully, the UK voted for Brexit creating good perspectives for gambling in general. Lets hope that it will remain an oasis outside Europe. The UK will have to enforce policies that will help business while the European straightjacket will continue (de)regulating markets in a Soviet style. Speaking of the UK, there is a big expectation that Pinnacle will get back soon.

Governments, bookmakers, exchanges and e-wallets become more and more greedy, (de)regulating markets and implementing policies and tactics against all players successful or not, disguising their insatiable thirst for taxes and profits behind the moral curtains of responsible gambling, tax evasion/avoidance and money laundering. There is no doubt that this phenomena are present in the gambling world, but putting everyone in the meat grinder is unfair, undermining genuine successful long term actions.

We all know that it is very difficult for a newbie to get in the game and remain in green ground. I mentioned the problems that bookmakers are creating, but additionally, it is the older guys not allowing anyone else to breathe. The older guys, being well positioned, having the weight of money on their side, are taking a bigger part of the pie before anyone else. Thus, newbies will have to try even harder in order to keep their nose above the water. The environment is getting hostile for the older guys also, as this year many reported that they didn't have a personal best. It seems that 2015 was the best year for them. Some kept this momentum until the summer of 2016, with the World Cup and the Olympic games.

The situation is deteriorating by the attack of locusts. These are a group of players under the guidance of 2-3 bigger guys that kill the cow who feeds us all. These groups are attacking to any possible source of profit in order to suck as more capital as they can in very short time. As a result, many sources of profit are already dried up when they had an excellent potential to feed a lot of people very generously for a longer time period. This is a very disappointing phenomenon and a major threat for the arbitrage and smart gambling world. It shows that the younger generation of smart gambling lacks of the noble characteristics that we have seen previously.

2016 was another difficult year added in the chain.

I wrote this annual review in good will, hoping that it will contribute to the understanding of this very particular field of arbitrage and smart gambling.

Thank you for reading.

6
Bookies discussion / Player's risk score starting from account registration
« on: November 14, 2016, 04:50:08 PM »
I had the chance to speak with an industry insider the other day. Don't ask for the name or his position in the industry. The guy is very deep.
Among other things he told me the following. Bookmakers are now rating players starting from registration. Every player is getting a risk score, something similar to the credit score that banks give to their clients. The procedure is fully automated and that is why many players find their accounts limited or blocked even before bet #1. Even if your account is not flagged for any reason, the procedure is dynamic and it follows your account at any step you take, adding or extracting points to your score. As we all know the bets that we place are more than enough to flag us as arbers or dangerous players. Our guy revealed that even the pages of specific markets that we visit within the bookmaker is contributing to our score. For example, if you go to the page where French league 2 is displayed, and if there is an arb there during the time of your visit, this is enough to contribute to your score, even if you don't place any bet. The bookmaker assumes that you were ready to place a sharp bet, but you found a better price somewhere else. A visit in their casino website would contribute positively to your score, not to mention if you play some baccarat there. Somewhere along the (short) way, all available to the bookmakers data bases will contribute to the profiling of the player and this leaves space for exchange of information among bookmakers. We have seen and discussed this before in this case: http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,2222.0.html Manual work looking for information from other sources, comes at the end of the account life span when bookmaker has to pay winnings. Many bookmakers claim their screening of each player is building the full profile before bet #3.
A limited number of bookmakers with limited resources or/and lack of market knowledge or/and will to scam players, will not pay attention to this kind of screening and might use more traditional ways to reduce risks, before taking more aggressive measures against players.
Hoping that this will help us to understand the industry as it is today, I would like to remind you a relevant post I made some years ago: http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,2550.0.html

7
Bookies discussion / 1xbet info requested
« on: November 11, 2016, 09:11:41 AM »
Could someone provide credible info about 1xbet bookmaker?
Thank you.

8
Rest Area / I will be in...
« on: October 15, 2016, 09:06:12 AM »
Sofia, Bulgaria 22-23 of October. Let's arrange a meeting downtown.

9
Announcements / Beta testers needed
« on: October 08, 2016, 04:26:38 PM »
There is a small group of people, members of our forum, that developed a new value betting tool. The tool is based on a large data base. I believe it will bring a small revolution to the value betting world, as the need for soft bookmakers is almost minimized and profits keep coming even when no arbs are enabled in action.
I tested this tool these last 2 months and I contributed with my insight and advise. The owners are requesting that a larger number of people try this tool before it gets out in the market. That said, 5-10 of our members are needed to try this out, and then contribute with their advise and insight. So far, minor bugs and errors were spotted, and there is hope that these people will be able to spot even more. They will be granted with full access to the service and will have the chance to try out this tool before anyone else. They should be considered as taking the foremost position in this race.
Those who are interested should have a good knowledge of value betting, experience in the betting world, significant contribution to the forum, and will to contribute even more with their insight in the development of the tool.
You have to keep in mind that due to the nature of the tool, you will have to invest time to explore it;s features. Being a successful bettor, you know that effort is rewarded.
Waiting for your pm.
Thank you in advance.

10
I found these 2 graphs in twitter and thought would be food for thought.
Original sources: SecretBettingClub and Joseph Buchdahl



11
Announcements / Arbusers 4000 members
« on: September 19, 2016, 12:46:06 PM »
We meet a new milestone today. 4000 members.
Thank you very much for your support and the contribution to the forum.

12
Stock Markets and Forex / S&P 500
« on: August 20, 2016, 11:51:25 AM »
Deep distributions near the top showing smart money looking for protection. The index is now predisposed to touch the R1 line and technical analysis is making it a magnet. It has to be tested and the index will have to bump, offering good profits before deciding if it goes towards new heights or test the R2 line too.
The US elections will trigger everything. So far the elections are not decided, but when money realizes who is winning the race it will show the direction. Most probably this will go on until the last day somewhere in November.
The illness of the EU together with a renewed refugee crisis might contribute to the chaos.

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13
Value betting / End of season effect
« on: August 20, 2016, 09:46:57 AM »
I mentioned it several times before but would like to come back with a more detailed post. This is a piece of advise for those who like to experiment with this kind of action and those who could really exploit it. The wider audience could see it as ''general knowledge''.
During these last 13-15 years I noticed that as we re closing at the end of each season, many late goals happen in a number of championships. When I m talking about late goals, I mean goals after the 90th minute of each game. This phenomenon is very much vivid at the last 2-3 weekends before the end of each season, and it really tops at the last game of each team. It can be observed in 2 kinds of championships.
The first kind is those championships who are very clean and very competitive. I m talking about the UK now. Players are running like dogs until the last whistle, chasing the result the team needs the most. I can recall many thrillers in EPL, SPFL where the money is big, but in lower leagues as well. Games where a relegation, a promotion or a European ticket (with this specific order) is at stake are the best choices. Chances are multiplying numerically when 2 of these situations co-exist within the same game.
The second kind, is those extremely corrupted championships. Those with the unexpected rapid odd movements, or where the odds are magnetized towards a direction with no clear explanation. I m sure that you all experienced arbers are exploiting these markets through arbitrage and trading, so you really understand what I m talking about. Even though these games are slow and players are really bored to run from one side to another, late goals do occur very often. To remove the curtain of corruption, games in these championships are all starting at the same time, but it is the extra time at the end of each game that cant be regulated by any authority, corrupted or not. My observation reveals that when a game is decided, the factors of another game that might end 1-2 minutes later are changing rapidly.
As mentioned before, the end of the season is a gold mine for arbitrage and trading in these markets, but here I m presenting an additional source of profits and it should be treated as such. Also, as a side knowledge, you should keep the fact that this is a very bad period to trust a tipster to bet on the result of the game, simply because the factors enabled are far beyond anyone’s horizon.
I believe there is a lot of value in these markets for a next goal bet after 90-92nd minute. The odds are really high and so are the rewards. Even though you will lose many bets, it is the over all result of the effort that rewards the most.

15
Rest Area / Arbusers position on Brexit
« on: June 24, 2016, 03:02:30 PM »
Before anything else, I congratulate UK’s decision to leave the EU.
Brits endured with fortitude horrible PsyOps, beautifully and delicately wrapped threats, coming from all kinds of pundits, celebrities and luminaries. You need to have courage to go again this storm surge.

The United Kingdom is there since 1707. If we consider England as the core state of the UK then we can say that it is there since the 10th century. The UK is a sovereign state, while the EU is a hybrid supranational and intergovernmental decision-making entity founded after WWII.
The pound sterling is the world's oldest currency still in use. The euro came into existence only in 1999.
Historical depth is clearly on UK’s side. It is a logical conclusion that the UK will still be there for some time after EU’s disintegration. The UK is an irreversible state, while the EU is not.
Those who threaten the UK with any mean, are doing their bigger bluff ever.

Now let’s face reality. In particular, the German reality.
The Franco-German reconciliation in post WWII Europe produced the illusion that the construction of Europe was led by France, backed by an economically dynamic West Germany. The UK would be a useful for all addition in the EU, making sure that no country would dominate it. The re-unification of Germany brought everyone’s aspirations back to reality. Germany’s economic and financial power replaced French political leadership. With the collapse of the eastern bloc, 2 dozen countries applied for EU membership and all well known German satellites came to orbit again. These satellites moved the European center of gravity to the east, transforming Germany from the bastion of the West to the center of the continent.
The 2008 financial crisis proved that a Germany led European Union was holding all means of power on the continent, dictating policies, demanding and eventually taking pieces of sovereignty from many countries.
We ‘ve seen the Greeks and the Italians having their Prime Ministers appointed by Berlin (Papademos, Monti). We ‘ve seen France accepting all kind of insults with no revenge. Schaeuble ‘’has asked a panel of advisers to look into reform proposals for France’’. French perkiness was consumed in futile demonstrations against Gadaffi and African radical groups that eventually strengthen terrorism globally. I could go on for days, but the general idea is that the average Brit realized that there is a German Gauleiter in the neighborhood who is looking for a more ‘’Soviet style’’ governance. The average Brit is used to be a Boss also and his DNA is not allowing him to be a subordinate.

Let me resume everything with the following great Churchill’s saying:
We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.

The Brits choose the open sea instead of Germany. It is that simple.

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