888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?

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SurebetMonitor
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888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« on: April 02, 2014, 02:20:07 PM »

The article is here: http://goo.gl/nKa90Q

Please feel free to comment.
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cristi13
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2014, 02:42:08 PM »

What kind of stakes were used?
For such a small % the sample is not large enough.
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SurebetMonitor
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2014, 02:52:15 PM »

The model is close to flat-staking with the stake around 50/bet at 888 and 20/bet at Unibet.

By the way - updates will follow, as the number of bets grow.
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X_Gambler
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2014, 04:00:20 PM »

For my understanding ..
Does kambi offer different odds to 888 and unibet for the exact same betoffer? Or is there only a difference in the provided events/betoffers?
I personally never encountered the first one though..
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Allintips
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2014, 04:13:28 PM »

Interesting. Can you tell us the results only counting arbs with 888sport/Unibet`s odds between 1.70 and 2.30?
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sportoboy
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2014, 04:36:25 PM »

888sport and unibet share the exact same in-play odds, so I think the whole experiment is invalid and the conclusions totally wrong

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sportoboy
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2014, 05:04:20 PM »

How would they be better when they offer the exact same odds?
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Arbusers
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2014, 05:15:16 PM »

Indeed a very interesting article with good observations.
Now my question is this. Ok, we found a way to win more money in Unibet than Pinnacle. How do we cash out this observation? Unibet will limit us again and again and again. It should be the other way around.
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cristi13
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cristi13

Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2014, 05:57:20 PM »

Indeed a very interesting article with good observations.
Now my question is this. Ok, we found a way to win more money in Unibet than Pinnacle. How do we cash out this observation? Unibet will limit us again and again and again. It should be the other way around.

I thought the point of this observation is that there is value in Pinnacle's lines, therefore we could use 888 only as an indicator and value bet the Pinnacle side. I doubt the info is accurate, though.
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SurebetMonitor
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2014, 08:44:29 PM »

888sport and unibet share the exact same in-play odds, so I think the whole experiment is invalid and the conclusions totally wrong

888 have only main leagues  or better unibet have more events i would say, but you are right with  same odds...it should be that 888 is better on main leagues , or ?

Exactly, currently Unibet offers 129 livebetting lines, whereas 888sport just 39, which is even more interesting as it seems that both of the softs somehow can beat Pinnacle "big lines" on big events live. Of course when you take into account minor leagues, present only in Unibet Pinnacle regains some shape with the higher margin.
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SurebetMonitor
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2014, 10:46:24 AM »

Indeed a very interesting article with good observations.
Now my question is this. Ok, we found a way to win more money in Unibet than Pinnacle. How do we cash out this observation? Unibet will limit us again and again and again. It should be the other way around.

Actually it looks like, which is unexpected (so far, based on the data we gathered up to date) one wins more at Pinnacle and loses at 888sport, which would be good news for all of us.
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yorkjoss
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2014, 11:03:06 AM »

Indeed a very interesting article with good observations.
Now my question is this. Ok, we found a way to win more money in Unibet than Pinnacle. How do we cash out this observation? Unibet will limit us again and again and again. It should be the other way around.

Actually it looks like, which is unexpected (so far, based on the data we gathered up to date) one wins more at Pinnacle and loses at 888sport, which would be good news for all of us.

you are making something out of nothing here, all this is is a statistical anomaly, unibet/888 are on a par with their live odds
with bwin but limit you even more quickly, their odds are frequently out of line, I experimented with bwin by value betting
on out of line live odds @ £50 stakes and lost £600, in a small sample that can easily happen, all your data proves to me is that for true accurate results the sample has to be massive, far bigger than the one you performed.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2014, 11:09:52 AM by yorkjoss » Logged
SurebetMonitor
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2014, 11:18:22 AM »

As I say, update will follow, to me it is already interesting that out of many thousands of different bets expected like -3,-4% is actually +3,15, giving like 6-7% difference.
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qbet
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #13 on: April 03, 2014, 11:25:15 AM »

Actually, adding the two sample together we are about break even at 7000 bets. It's interesting but it's still very inconclusive. We would need a much bigger sample to run close to our expected yield with high probability. It's more of a demonstration of how much variance there is in sports betting.
Pre-match the sharp books do not generally need a very accurate model. The sharp players provide the information through their bets. In-play however their job is harder as they constantly need to adjust their odds as a game progresses. So there is merit to the theory that lines may not be as accurate.
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SurebetMonitor
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Re: 888sport to beat Pinnacle lines?
« Reply #14 on: April 03, 2014, 11:36:17 AM »

Time will tell, there are not like millions of such arbs every day. I was surprised though seeing results like these so wanted to share them and discuss. Take marathonbet previously, take bwin brands or so, never seen such a phenomena (like breaking even, not speaking of +% - meaning bwin's or marathonbet lines suck against Pinnys, yeah right - pre-match). Still my intuition is it should return to normality that we all expect in time, even for live offer.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2014, 12:54:07 PM by SurebetMonitor » Logged

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