Is Bet365 a sharp?!

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NewValue
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Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« on: August 25, 2014, 10:32:57 AM »

Hi Arbusers.

I just started betting and was hoping to make a profit of it.

I did a lot of reading before setting up my account (for nowonly using BET365). In particular I was very interested in your statings about you losing money at Pinnacle Sports while arbing and winning everywhere else. Therefore i set up a thesis, that I could derive the "true odds" from  Pinancles 1x2-odds, by calculating in the margin. I have now tried my thesis at BET365 and the result is that I am losing.

I have made more than 220 bets and I lose 10 % (!!!) on an average bet. Meaning that I am loosing more, than if I did place my bets all random!

This can mean a number of things:
Maybe I should stay away from matches with a huge favorite. I can see that I am l losing in average 23 % when betting on odds below odds 2, and 28 % when betting on odds higher than 5, while I am only losing 2 % on odds between 2 and 5.
It can also be read as a sign of BET365 becoming sharper (or Pinnacle becoming worse?)

What are your thoughts? Am I doing something wrong? Is Bet365 sharper than Pinancle? Or do I need to adjust for anything else than margins when deriving the "true odds" from Pinnacle? Is my thesis all wrong?

Thanks in advance and sorry for the english. I am not a native, as you might have guessed.
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NewValue
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Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2014, 10:42:34 AM »

In addition i just noticed, that I am loosing in average 17 % on draws. Maybe I should betting on these.
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NewValue
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Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2014, 11:59:43 AM »

Okay - So Bet365 is not a sharp.

Do you have any guesses on why I am losing money then, when strictly following Pinnacles odds?
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dci2121
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Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2014, 12:16:00 PM »

I have a same question... Why bet365 isnt sharp and close accounts? I am talking about live arbing... 3 accounts now all are loosers and limits come....
The have profit from live arbing... Especially if you bet with the other softies... If you bet with the sharps then they have looses but i think on average all live accounts on bet365 are loosing account... Why they close down accounts then? Am i missing something?
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cortomaltese
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Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2014, 12:30:50 PM »

I have a same question... Why bet365 isnt sharp and close accounts? I am talking about live arbing... 3 accounts now all are loosers and limits come....
The have profit from live arbing... Especially if you bet with the other softies... If you bet with the sharps then they have looses but i think on average all live accounts on bet365 are loosing account... Why they close down accounts then? Am i missing something?

Hit them paired with other softies and you ll not get limited , however with sharps is a different story ;)
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dci2121
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Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2014, 01:40:33 PM »

Hit them paired with other softies and you ll not get limited , however with sharps is a different story ;)

I have the same thought... But this is thoughts... Is it a fakt? Bet365 limits only when hitted with the sharps or even with softies???
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tat
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Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2014, 01:41:57 PM »

Hi Arbusers.

I just started betting and was hoping to make a profit of it.

I did a lot of reading before setting up my account (for nowonly using BET365). In particular I was very interested in your statings about you losing money at Pinnacle Sports while arbing and winning everywhere else. Therefore i set up a thesis, that I could derive the "true odds" from  Pinancles 1x2-odds, by calculating in the margin. I have now tried my thesis at BET365 and the result is that I am losing.

I have made more than 220 bets and I lose 10 % (!!!) on an average bet. Meaning that I am loosing more, than if I did place my bets all random!

This can mean a number of things:
Maybe I should stay away from matches with a huge favorite. I can see that I am l losing in average 23 % when betting on odds below odds 2, and 28 % when betting on odds higher than 5, while I am only losing 2 % on odds between 2 and 5.
It can also be read as a sign of BET365 becoming sharper (or Pinnacle becoming worse?)

What are your thoughts? Am I doing something wrong? Is Bet365 sharper than Pinancle? Or do I need to adjust for anything else than margins when deriving the "true odds" from Pinnacle? Is my thesis all wrong?

Thanks in advance and sorry for the english. I am not a native, as you might have guessed.

What was exactly your system? To take any odd if it was above pinnacle odds?
What is your average odd for those 200 bets? I really doubt you can take any conclusion with statistical significance.
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2014, 01:47:32 PM »

Is Bet365 a sharp?

What a question!!! Some time ago I would say ''Are you kidding me?''
Bet365 presents a Janus face in the industry. As we probably all agree, the pre game odds offered by bet365 are very soft. Just take a look at you alert service (no matter what it might be) and you will see loads and loads of arbs. This is the one bet365 side that I can clearly say it is not sharp.
On the other hand, as our friend Sportoboy noticed, based on a 3-4 year long observation, bet365 acts like a sharp when it comes to live play. Read more here: http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,2215.msg27872.html#msg27872
Also, Bet365 announced a record profit year, as you can read here: http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/bet-365-reports-massive-rise-profits-Stoke-Trent/story-21449091-detail/story.html
We are all big boys and we do understand that the soaring of profits is not a result of Stoke's performance.

It seems that bet365 has a lot of secrets hidden, when it comes on the way that they operate.
At the same time, speaking with a lot of managers of the industry, the impression that i have is that Bet365 is one of the greediest bookmakers out there, even more grediest than legendary Betfair. Always trying to find new ways, to minimize losses and maximize profits, no matter how small they are. Of course, I m not accusing them for this, it is their right t maximize their profits.
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NewValue
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Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2014, 02:10:30 PM »

Hi Arbusers.

I just started betting and was hoping to make a profit of it.

I did a lot of reading before setting up my account (for nowonly using BET365). In particular I was very interested in your statings about you losing money at Pinnacle Sports while arbing and winning everywhere else. Therefore i set up a thesis, that I could derive the "true odds" from  Pinancles 1x2-odds, by calculating in the margin. I have now tried my thesis at BET365 and the result is that I am losing.

I have made more than 220 bets and I lose 10 % (!!!) on an average bet. Meaning that I am loosing more, than if I did place my bets all random!

This can mean a number of things:
Maybe I should stay away from matches with a huge favorite. I can see that I am l losing in average 23 % when betting on odds below odds 2, and 28 % when betting on odds higher than 5, while I am only losing 2 % on odds between 2 and 5.
It can also be read as a sign of BET365 becoming sharper (or Pinnacle becoming worse?)

What are your thoughts? Am I doing something wrong? Is Bet365 sharper than Pinancle? Or do I need to adjust for anything else than margins when deriving the "true odds" from Pinnacle? Is my thesis all wrong?

Thanks in advance and sorry for the english. I am not a native, as you might have guessed.

What was exactly your system? To take any odd if it was above pinnacle odds?
What is your average odd for those 200 bets? I really doubt you can take any conclusion with statistical significance.



Maybe I should just arb instead.. :)
« Last Edit: August 26, 2014, 11:18:31 AM by NewValue » Logged
kungu
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kungu

Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2014, 11:51:18 PM »

I have run some simulations with valuebets, 220 bets is not remotely enough to be "sure" to be a winner with valuebets and even more to derive a win/loss rate in %, especially if you are betting thin edges (since you are not arbing I suppose you are).
Still I wonder, did you get limited somehow by just taking those slightly out of line odds?
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NewValue
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Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2014, 07:12:02 AM »

I have run some simulations with valuebets, 220 bets is not remotely enough to be "sure" to be a winner with valuebets and even more to derive a win/loss rate in %, especially if you are betting thin edges (since you are not arbing I suppose you are).
Still I wonder, did you get limited somehow by just taking those slightly out of line odds?

Okay. I'll continue my experiment for a little while. I'll let you know how it turns out.

I have not been limited yet - which I guess is a result of them milking me and not the other way around.

By the way - where should I look to place my next deposit (having my gambling strategy in mind)? What other bookmakers would have odds which fairly often are off Pinnacles?
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tat
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tat

Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2014, 08:37:12 AM »

I have run some simulations with valuebets, 220 bets is not remotely enough to be "sure" to be a winner with valuebets and even more to derive a win/loss rate in %, especially if you are betting thin edges (since you are not arbing I suppose you are).
Still I wonder, did you get limited somehow by just taking those slightly out of line odds?

What software did you use to run the simulations?
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tat
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tat

Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2014, 08:43:17 AM »

I have run some simulations with valuebets, 220 bets is not remotely enough to be "sure" to be a winner with valuebets and even more to derive a win/loss rate in %, especially if you are betting thin edges (since you are not arbing I suppose you are).
Still I wonder, did you get limited somehow by just taking those slightly out of line odds?


Okay. I'll continue my experiment for a little while. I'll let you know how it turns out.

I have not been limited yet - which I guess is a result of them milking me and not the other way around.

By the way - where should I look to place my next deposit (having my gambling strategy in mind)? What other bookmakers would have odds which fairly often are off Pinnacles?


I suggest you to backtest your idea, with data from this site: http://www.football-data.co.uk/downloadm.php .
I am just not sure, how are the odds collected, but at least it is something you should try.
In fact I am also interested on the results, I may give you an hand if you need.
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NewValue
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NewValue

Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2014, 12:11:10 PM »

I have run some simulations with valuebets, 220 bets is not remotely enough to be "sure" to be a winner with valuebets and even more to derive a win/loss rate in %, especially if you are betting thin edges (since you are not arbing I suppose you are).
Still I wonder, did you get limited somehow by just taking those slightly out of line odds?


Okay. I'll continue my experiment for a little while. I'll let you know how it turns out.

I have not been limited yet - which I guess is a result of them milking me and not the other way around.

By the way - where should I look to place my next deposit (having my gambling strategy in mind)? What other bookmakers would have odds which fairly often are off Pinnacles?


I suggest you to backtest your idea, with data from this site: http://www.football-data.co.uk/downloadm.php .
I am just not sure, how are the odds collected, but at least it is something you should try.
In fact I am also interested on the results, I may give you an hand if you need.


Great idea! I will look into that.

By the way - do a similar spreadsheet exist for matches not played yet?
I need an easier way to compare the odds.
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tat
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tat

Re: Is Bet365 a sharp?!
« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2014, 01:07:05 PM »

I have run some simulations with valuebets, 220 bets is not remotely enough to be "sure" to be a winner with valuebets and even more to derive a win/loss rate in %, especially if you are betting thin edges (since you are not arbing I suppose you are).
Still I wonder, did you get limited somehow by just taking those slightly out of line odds?


Okay. I'll continue my experiment for a little while. I'll let you know how it turns out.

I have not been limited yet - which I guess is a result of them milking me and not the other way around.

By the way - where should I look to place my next deposit (having my gambling strategy in mind)? What other bookmakers would have odds which fairly often are off Pinnacles?


I suggest you to backtest your idea, with data from this site: http://www.football-data.co.uk/downloadm.php .
I am just not sure, how are the odds collected, but at least it is something you should try.
In fact I am also interested on the results, I may give you an hand if you need.


Great idea! I will look into that.

By the way - do a similar spreadsheet exist for matches not played yet?
I need an easier way to compare the odds.


There are many odds comparison sites, but the format is a webpage not a xls .
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