Matched betting on special outcomes

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Matched betting on special outcomes  (Read 2712 times)
Namnam
Newbie
*

Karma: -3
Posts: 47


View Profile

Namnam

Matched betting on special outcomes
« on: November 10, 2014, 06:40:22 PM »

Hi guys. I'm a newbie, but I am picking up some experience on the normal betting and laying last 1-2 months. Moving on to the deeper end of the pool. My question: Is it possible to match bet on a promo for special outcome? Betsson (and other bookies) have sometimes promos that your stake is returned if X happens or don't happen in a match. For example, "QPR-Man City, bet on exact result, stake returned if both teams score in first half." What I usually do is just arb/narb the match and hope for a returned stake. But could I instead match the returned stake somehow, so I get a profit regardless of the outcome? If so, how? Thanks!
Logged
Thordin
Pro
*****

Karma: 24
Posts: 807


View Profile

Thordin

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2014, 06:55:20 PM »

well in your exapmle its easy.
You make the arb on the correct score.if its possitive all good.
If its like -2 euro keep that number in mind.
Stake returned if both teams score in the firsthalf.
Say its a 100 euro stake that gets returned if that happens.
So on the market BTTS 1H you already have a 100 profit on YES.
Find the best odds on BTTS 1H NO, say 1.30, bet 75 @ 1.30

Now you have 25 profit on YES and 22.50 on NO.
-2 or whatever the original arb % outcome is as well.

Logged
Namnam
Newbie
*

Karma: -3
Posts: 47


View Profile

Namnam

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2014, 08:41:31 AM »

Allright! Here is where my inexperience in normal gambling shows. I didn't even know you could bet both teams to score first half... Does the odds for the cover bet matters? Or is it just better the higher it is?

But the tricky bit which I forgot to mention is that most of these offers are stake returned IF ORIGINAL BET LOOSES! That makes it a lot harder to cover does it not? Say I cover the BTTS outcome like you say, but my bet at the bookie wins but my coverbet on BTTS looses = i don't get the returned stake and also loose the stake for the cover bet. Any way to adjust for this, or is it not possible? Thanks for the reply already!
Logged
abc
Newbie
*

Karma: 2
Posts: 11


View Profile

abc

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2014, 09:29:49 AM »

Allright! Here is where my inexperience in normal gambling shows. I didn't even know you could bet both teams to score first half... Does the odds for the cover bet matters? Or is it just better the higher it is?

But the tricky bit which I forgot to mention is that most of these offers are stake returned IF ORIGINAL BET LOOSES! That makes it a lot harder to cover does it not? Say I cover the BTTS outcome like you say, but my bet at the bookie wins but my coverbet on BTTS looses = i don't get the returned stake and also loose the stake for the cover bet. Any way to adjust for this, or is it not possible? Thanks for the reply already!

The point is that with your 3 bets you cover both CS AND BTTS 1H, e.g.

bet 1: CS 1:0 - back
bet 2: CS 1:0 - lay
bet 3: BTTS 1H NO - back

If for example game finishes 1:0 your first and third bet won, if game finishes 1:1 (both goals scored in 1st half) you get 1st stake refunded and bet 2 wins

Just be careful and do not place your bet 1 for score where also both teams score a goal - for example 3:2; in such case if your bet 1 wins - result is 3:2 - and result of BTTS 1H is YES - both teams have also scored in first half - you lose bet 2 and bet 3

Logged
Namnam
Newbie
*

Karma: -3
Posts: 47


View Profile

Namnam

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2014, 09:55:03 AM »

Oohhh, that's smart! Would need to find a close arb on a specific score though. But maybe worth a small loss on bet 1 and 2, if I am sure to also win bet 3 (or the returned stake)! But in that case it would only work to place CS bets on just one of the teams scoring as you say. This special condition is obviously possible to cover for thanks to the way you can use bet 1 and 2 in regards to bet 3, but how about other special outcomes? I have a few more examples that you guys could help me decipher:

Man Utd – Crystal Palace: stake returned on LOOSING bets (any bet in the match), if Manchester United win AND Di Maria scores a goal?

Liverpool – Chelsea: stake returned on LOOSING bets for goalscorer, if Chelsea wins with 2 goals or more?


Anybody else have examples of these kind of promos?
Logged
Thordin
Pro
*****

Karma: 24
Posts: 807


View Profile

Thordin

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2014, 03:09:22 PM »

Whats the max stake returned on those?
Logged
Namnam
Newbie
*

Karma: -3
Posts: 47


View Profile

Namnam

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2014, 07:01:52 PM »

I'm not sure actually, it does not say in the newsletter. But I think maybe 1000SEK = 100£.
Logged
Namnam
Newbie
*

Karma: -3
Posts: 47


View Profile

Namnam

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2014, 07:11:15 PM »

Hey everyone! Comeon has a few new offers of this kind, and I was thinking of getting help from you guys again to see if any of them can be combined to a secure matched bet!

Arsenal – Manchester United: Bet on "goalscorer" pre-match, and if Van Persie scores in second half, you get the stake returned (if your bet looses).

Manchester City – Swansea: Bet on "goalscorer" pre-match, and if both teams score in second half, you get the stake returned (if your bet looses).

Chelsea – West Brom: Bet on "correct result" pre-match, and if Hazard scores a goal, you get the stake returned (if your bet looses).


Maybe last one could be something huh? If I bet on 0-0 (and also lay it) and also lay for Hazard as goalscorer?
Logged
Namnam
Newbie
*

Karma: -3
Posts: 47


View Profile

Namnam

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2014, 07:39:58 PM »

The Swedish version of Expekt has a similar offer tomorrow for Malmoe FF-Juventus. The layout is: bet up to 500SEK (about 50£) on CS, first goalscorer or HT/FT. If your bet looses you get the stake returned IF you choose one of these choices and they happen (not an actual bet, just a choice): Rosenborg scores, The match ends a draw, Tevez is first goalscorer.

Could this somehow be combined in a secure matched bet? I have thought  about it, but not figured it out.

https://en.expekt.com/v%C3%A4lj-din-%C3%A5terbetalning-malm%C3%B6-vs-juventus-cspo_ek_cyr2611?popup=False
Logged
abc
Newbie
*

Karma: 2
Posts: 11


View Profile

abc

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2014, 08:07:53 PM »

The Swedish version of Expekt has a similar offer tomorrow for Malmoe FF-Juventus. The layout is: bet up to 500SEK (about 50£) on CS, first goalscorer or HT/FT. If your bet looses you get the stake returned IF you choose one of these choices and they happen (not an actual bet, just a choice): Rosenborg scores, The match ends a draw, Tevez is first goalscorer.

Could this somehow be combined in a secure matched bet? I have thought  about it, but not figured it out.

https://en.expekt.com/v%C3%A4lj-din-%C3%A5terbetalning-malm%C3%B6-vs-juventus-cspo_ek_cyr2611?popup=False

You can use the very same 'trick' as above - just back/lay CS and lay draw. Your CS bet must NOT be on draw of course...
Logged
Namnam
Newbie
*

Karma: -3
Posts: 47


View Profile

Namnam

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2014, 08:32:07 PM »

The Swedish version of Expekt has a similar offer tomorrow for Malmoe FF-Juventus. The layout is: bet up to 500SEK (about 50£) on CS, first goalscorer or HT/FT. If your bet looses you get the stake returned IF you choose one of these choices and they happen (not an actual bet, just a choice): Rosenborg scores, The match ends a draw, Tevez is first goalscorer.

Could this somehow be combined in a secure matched bet? I have thought  about it, but not figured it out.

https://en.expekt.com/v%C3%A4lj-din-%C3%A5terbetalning-malm%C3%B6-vs-juventus-cspo_ek_cyr2611?popup=False

You can use the very same 'trick' as above - just back/lay CS and lay draw. Your CS bet must NOT be on draw of course...

I think you are right! I can't come up with a situation where both bets could .. Damn it, I'm not smart enough for this game! ;)
Logged
Namnam
Newbie
*

Karma: -3
Posts: 47


View Profile

Namnam

Re: Matched betting on special outcomes
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2014, 08:48:52 PM »

However, I can not have a larger liability on the second laybet than I would "win" if my stake is returned, right? Otherwise I loose money of my lay fails. And in this specific case, the draw is at 5.5 odds, so my win out of potentially 500SEK would only be about 108SEK minus the huge loss on the bet/lay since the odds at Expekt are useless ... Still, its free money!
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print