Let's solve the riddle!

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Let's solve the riddle!  (Read 9045 times)
whitesnake
Getting better
***

Karma: -1
Posts: 235


View Profile

whitesnake

Let's solve the riddle!
« on: December 18, 2014, 01:28:58 PM »

I came across this scenario which is presented as an unsolved riddle, also much discussed in other forums:  http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-blog/holy-grail-lay-0-0-at-half-time/  /
Being aware that those who solved it would never give clues about it, I would like to invite those who do not know the solution and interested to do so to try to brainstorm about possible markets/strategies which enable us to make it a profitable trade regardless of the result.
As you can read in the article, the main problem is that 0-0 FT does not decrease enough from Kick-off to HT to be able to cover the stake on 0-0 HT. This is what we need to overcome.

Logged
ilosemoneydaily
Newbie
*

Karma: 7
Posts: 17


View Profile

ilosemoneydaily

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2014, 03:37:39 PM »

I came across this scenario which is presented as an unsolved riddle, also much discussed in other forums:  http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-blog/holy-grail-lay-0-0-at-half-time/  /
Being aware that those who solved it would never give clues about it, I would like to invite those who do not know the solution and interested to do so to try to brainstorm about possible markets/strategies which enable us to make it a profitable trade regardless of the result.
As you can read in the article, the main problem is that 0-0 FT does not decrease enough from Kick-off to HT to be able to cover the stake on 0-0 HT. This is what we need to overcome.


mmm interesting, a lot of people will just dismiss it as a load of rubbish, but you know what, you never know!
But I can never get people who make claims like this, maybe he was just trying to sell other strategies, I mean if I had a holy grail I'd keep it all to myself!
« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 03:47:55 PM by ilosemoneydaily » Logged
ilosemoneydaily
Newbie
*

Karma: 7
Posts: 17


View Profile

ilosemoneydaily

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2014, 03:52:58 PM »

In fact reading more about it, it does look like a load of rubbish lol
Logged
Dentz
Newbie
*

Karma: 7
Posts: 40



View Profile

Dentz

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2014, 02:07:36 PM »

I have read that "riddle" from the forum you mentioned and some others too. I think that there was no problem at the time the holy grail was announced with dacay of price of 0-0 at fulltime, but after that there is much more bots and liquidity at BF to disassemble all of value that this scenario might have presented at the time introduced. I have tested and traded Betfair for few months now and I think there is not so much edge that human can exploit consistently. I might be wrong but that is the conclusion that I have come with.
Logged

Never lose your capital.
whitesnake
Getting better
***

Karma: -1
Posts: 235


View Profile

whitesnake

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2014, 05:48:32 AM »

Thanks a lot for the answers.

Of course the FT 0-0 is not the answer, the author of the article suggests to think outside of the box and search for other markets which lose should the HT 0-0 lay win. I found these markets would match this criteria:  No Goal  from Next Goal, First Goal and winning Margin markets, no Goalscorer from First Goalscorer, 0 Goals from Exact Total Goals and of course over/under 0.5. I didn't yet find an edge with these markets, but who knows, maybe there are others I didn't discover.

I applied the same principle of trading o/u ft against ht with 2.5 and 1.5 .  While under 1.5 FT is not much different from 0-0 , under 2.5 is steadily decreasing from the beginning. This way, after placing under 2.5 FT and over 2.5 HT to arb each other out , under 2.5 is decreasing fast enough to at least cover the red on over 2.5 HT. After about 20-30 min, depending on stakes, the under 2.5 green covers the entire stake on over 2.5 HT. This would cover if no goals scored. If there are 3 or more goals scored in 1st half, then of course we would win. Problem is we are not covered on 1 goal or 2 goals. If we weight the stakes towards over 2.5 HT then we have about 15 minutes where the green generated on this market is larger than red on under 2.5 FT. The problem is if it is scored later we are not covered and also if 2 goals are scored. This is why I tested also under 2.5 FT against over 1.5 HT.  It is basically the same as with over 2.5 HT with the main advantage that we are  covered if 2 goals are scored 1st half. Where we are not covered is if 1 single goal is scored in 1st half after 10-15 minutes. This is where I am currently.  The combination under 2.5 FT against over 0.5 HT would cover this problem, but they don't arb each other out, so it is unusable.

I hope what I have written helps to give some hints; if we can get a solution for the 1 goal scored first half for the under 2.5 FT against over 1.5 HT combination, we would look much better.

What do you think?
« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 05:59:08 AM by whitesnake » Logged
Stergios
Newbie
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 58


View Profile

Stergios

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2014, 06:48:14 AM »

"Placing 2 bets before kick off:
First bet: Laying 0-0 half time result
Second bet is guaranteed to lose should the first bet win

If the first bet loses a third bet is placed during half time and an adjustment of the second bet may be needed.

However, it is not revealed what bets 2 and 3 comprise.

The whole strategy with a calculated staking plan guarantees a profit between 9 to 12% per match. One more little thing: The matches must have a clear advantage for the home team. Whoever finds the answer will have found the holy grail :)"

 what if the first bet wins (goal(s) scored in first half)? second bet loses and no third bet is placed and we should have a 9 to 12% profit??
Logged
whitesnake
Getting better
***

Karma: -1
Posts: 235


View Profile

whitesnake

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2014, 06:57:04 AM »

yes, because it is technically a classic back - lay bet  with back bet (0-0 FT)  much higher that lay bet (0-0 HT) .  What is against us is the rate of decay of these two, which generate a loss if we get out at HT at score of 0-0.
Logged
dealer wins
Pro
*****

Karma: -6
Posts: 509



View Profile

dealer wins

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2014, 08:43:14 AM »

Come on we are smart here.  Unless he is betting on odds way out of line, it is not possible.

If it were possible, there is NO WAY he would even post a riddle about it.   

If I found a way to make 10-20% guaranteed on every bet I make, I wouldn't tell my pet goose, let alone anyone else.
Logged

Never trust a goose!!!
drhoo
Guest


Email

drhoo

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2014, 09:47:36 AM »

so this guy found out about this in 2008 or so? and he is selling the system? and no one has figured it out thus far?
Logged
dwaynnyt
Newbie
*

Karma: -20
Posts: 68



View Profile

dwaynnyt

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2014, 02:31:51 PM »

I guess no. It will be pretty interesting if this still works.
Logged
whitesnake
Getting better
***

Karma: -1
Posts: 235


View Profile

whitesnake

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2014, 12:56:01 PM »

well, if we can think of some markets to combine, who knows maybe we get closer
Logged
Porthugz
Newbie
*

Karma: -2
Posts: 38


View Profile

Porthugz

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #11 on: December 23, 2014, 01:07:45 AM »

I would'nt waste too much time on this, slicer himself (the real one, not the scammer trying to sell this technique) said that it no longer worked for years. He is working on ways to find similar edges but without any results so far
Logged
whitesnake
Getting better
***

Karma: -1
Posts: 235


View Profile

whitesnake

Re: Let's solve the riddle!
« Reply #12 on: December 23, 2014, 01:23:17 PM »

Yes, I am aware of that. It doesn't prevent us to test on our own either, doesn't it?
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print