Horse Racing

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Kalf1992
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Kalf1992

Horse Racing
« on: January 09, 2015, 09:58:35 AM »

Hi Guys,

Next to my valuebetting career, I try to earn some extra cash following horse tippers. Now do I got some problems with taking odds, because I am not from the UK so can't play with bet365, ladbrokers, coral etc. I can with betfair, the hills and Unibet. But I got the idea I never get the best odds available.

Now the asian bookies got some Horse racing, SBO bet got a page and assianconnect got some through IBCbet and Citibet. Can somebody eplain me how this works with the totepool etc? I don't understand a bit...

I will be very thankfull for your help :)
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dwaynnyt
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Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2015, 02:36:25 PM »

What I know is that they charge 1% per withdrawal. It might need a confirmation though. But it's a bit high.
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X_Gambler
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Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2015, 07:39:25 PM »

Look at fred's page for a decent explanation
http://www.betfred.com/totepool/pools-betting-explained
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wildwoz
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Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2015, 11:08:38 AM »

This might help you its from www.aussportsbetting.com/guide/basics/tote-vs-fixed-odds/ Very good web site for beginners

There are two frameworks by which bookmakers can set odds. The Tote (Parimutuel betting) is commonly used for horse racing, while fixed odds betting is commonly used for sports.

Parimutuel betting

Parimutuel betting is a system in which all bets of a particular type are placed together in a pool. The “house-take” is removed, and the payoff odds are calculated by sharing the pool amongst all winning bets. In Australia it is known as the Tote after the totalisator which calculates and displays bets already placed. With the Tote the bookmaker displays the approximate odds that they believe you will receive. This approximation is based on the quantities of bets received to that point. These odds will change, however, depending on how much additional money is placed on each outcome. For this reason you don’t know the actual odds you will get until bets are no longer accepted and the event has commenced.1

Below is an example using an event with four possible outcomes and a house-take of 10%. You can think of this example as a race between four horses.



Outcome

Amount Wagered

Odds Calculation

Tote Odds

A $30 $222 * (1 – 10%) / $30 6.66
B $70 $222 * (1 – 10%) / $70 2.85
C $12 $222 * (1 – 10%) / $12 16.65
D $110 $222 * (1 – 10%) / $110 1.82

Total


$222
   

 

From a bookmaker perspective, parimutuel betting is low-risk, because they know the exact margin they will receive in advance. The bookmaker’s takings are independent of the event outcome. In the example above, the bookmaker’s profit will be approximately $22.20 (depending on the rounding), which is 10% of the total wagers placed.

Fixed odds betting

In contrast, fixed odds betting is a form of wagering where the punter knows the exact odds he/she will receive when they place a bet. Unlike parimutuel betting, not all punters who bet on the same outcome will receive the same odds. This is because the odds can shift over time based on the quantities wagered on each outcome. The bookmaker will actively price and adjust the odds such that it will make a profit regardless of the outcome. This is achieved by calibrating the odds so that the sum of their implied probabilities (discussed in the next section) exceeds 100%. In a two-outcome bet, if punters bet heavily on outcome A the bookmaker will reduce the odds on outcome A and increase the odds on outcome B, while keeping the margin relatively stable. This shift in odds will induce more betting on outcome B, which will enable the bookmaker to balance the book. Note that the bookmaker doesn’t necessarily need punters to place equal wagers on each outcome, it actually needs punters to place wagers in inverse proportion to the odds on offer.

Below is an example of a betting agency’s book that is out of balance. The market hasn’t been open for long, so every punter thus far has received the odds shown below. The Net Profit column provides the bookmaker profit for each possible winner.



Outcome

Odds

Amount Wagered

Profit calculation

Net Profit

A 6.7 $30.00  $222 – (6.7 * $30)  $21.00 
B 2.65 $70.00 $222 – (2.65 * $70)  $36.50
C 14.5 $12.00 $222 – (14.5 * $12) $48.00
D 2.2 $110.00 $222 – (2.2 * $110) -$20.00

Totals:
$222 

 

If outcome D is the winning bet then the bookmaker would make a $20 loss on the event. This imbalance will force the bookmaker to change the odds to induce more punters to back A, B and C relative to D. This can achieved by lowering the odds on outcome D and increasing the odds on outcomes A, B and C. Someone who backs outcome D early will get higher odds than someone who backs D after the odds adjustment. The odds will continue to shift as the bookmaker attempts to maintain a balanced book.

Fixed odds betting is more risky for the bookmaker than the Tote, because the profit margin is not guaranteed and the bookmaker’s profit will not be the same for every outcome.

Despite the fact that bookmakers independently tweak their odds the maintain a balanced book, odds across bookmakers are usually very similar. This is because arbitrage opportunities can arise if bookmaker odds move to be in stark contrast with one another. Arbitrageurs will jump in to make a guaranteed profit, and in the process will move the bookmaker odds back in-line with one another, thus closing the arbitrage opportunity. Arbitrage betting is discussed in Section 8 of this guide.
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Kalf1992
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Kalf1992

Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2015, 03:30:59 PM »

Oke that solves the totebetting. Is there somewhere/someway were I can see historical tote odds? And is it fine to say that when you back more favorite backed horses tote is not the way to go, but when you back outsiders you will be fine?

Still the question about CITIBet this is some sort of exchange somebody playing there or know how it works??

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johnsmith
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Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2015, 08:02:07 PM »

citibet is an exchange similar to betfair in that backers and layers trade with each other

but it is different to betfair in that on betfair you adjust the odds to get matched , with citibet you offer rebates on the tote prices

basically if you are a backer you will generally get between 10 and 24% better odds than the tote, and if you are a layer you will be offering 10 to 24% higher odds to the backers.

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lerllerdi
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lerllerdi

Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2015, 09:13:42 PM »

Well not quiet. Citibet follows the relevant tote price and tote prices can sometimes get totally crushed before the off, meaning you get better value with betfair even with their tax and the citibet rebate combined. Ofc if the price is close citibet wins and if it is higher then, well...

Not knocking it at all, but that's one end of the spectrum... if one is strictly looking at value betting.
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johnsmith
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Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2015, 07:50:38 PM »

 i bet there everyday for a living

having said that , the majority of my turnover in laying , which after the rebate given is stacks better than laying on betfair and has significantly more liquidity across all tracks, not just metro
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lerllerdi
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lerllerdi

Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2015, 09:45:18 PM »

Fair enough mate, I also use it and there's no way I would knock it. What I said is more related to the tote when the price on a particular horse gets crushed further than the rebate can compensate for, which erodes value when backing.

All I'm saying is, and nothing else, that the value is not granted to be 100% of the time at citibet (although many times it is) because of the nature of tote itself, since the original poster was talking about value betting.
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johnsmith
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johnsmith

Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2015, 10:42:10 PM »

yep agreed  you cant beat it for laying but for backers it depends

for backers, one benefit is liquidity outside main tracks I guess as betfair not so good
plus in running backing at 20% is handy when you know the dividend and its heaps lower on the bf lay side, although i dont bother with that as i dont arb much anymore and certainly not horses
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2015, 09:26:47 PM »

By the way, I suggest you to watch "Let it Ride"
It was a very funny movie about Horse Racing :D

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arber_PL
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arber_PL

Re: Horse Racing
« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2015, 11:45:29 PM »

hey guys,
anyone familiar with horse betting could explain me what does it mean this "Reduced"?
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