How does sharps find the 'correct odds'?

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AnnaPrentice
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AnnaPrentice

How does sharps find the 'correct odds'?
« on: May 12, 2015, 09:47:08 AM »

Dear Arbusers forum,

over and over again I have read on various bettingsites that the sharps calculate their odds by how much each team is backed. Even socalled experts claim this over and over again.

This makes no sense to me for several reasons. One being all follow SBO/IBC on football, the other is that I have never seen clear evidence that popular teams such as Barcelona, Man U, Madrid etc. is overrated oddswise week after week as many suggest. A third would be that it makes no sense for a company that is financially able to cope with risks like SBO to have skewed odds because of risk management instead of trying to optimize their profit.

If anyone has some insight as to how a football market is created and even better what exactly changes lines on a match I would be grateful.
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Alfons
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Alfons

Re: How does sharps find the 'correct odds'?
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2015, 10:35:08 AM »

They will have to calculate their odds by how much each team is backed so they get even amounts of money on each side, otherwise they would be gambling. 
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AnnaPrentice
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AnnaPrentice

Re: How does sharps find the 'correct odds'?
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2015, 11:26:26 AM »

Of course, but gambling would be the optimal strategy given that their odds are correct. This is exactly what I think they are doing but I would like an arbuser with better insight than me to post please :)
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janajana
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janajana

Re: How does sharps find the 'correct odds'?
« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2015, 08:52:14 AM »

Of course they are "gambling" on 1X2 odds, where massive money are on favourits and only small juice for book. But most of their business is on Asian Hc markets, where they balance the book for sure profit.
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: How does sharps find the 'correct odds'?
« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2015, 09:11:49 AM »

On big matches, Betfair is as true odds as you are going to get.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
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ArberPro
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ArberPro

Re: How does sharps find the 'correct odds'?
« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2015, 11:20:41 AM »

I think they have alot of variables when they calculate the odds (the money on each side,information about teams,inside information), probabily they have some traders on their team too for trading with some risks (i don't think it's called gambling) .
On big matches, Betfair is as true odds as you are going to get.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

The truest odd in my opinion comes from the biggest money volume market wich in many cases isn't betfair.
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