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clubgowi
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« on: March 02, 2016, 10:55:18 AM »

West Ham - Tottenham

Tough week for Spurs, with a Sunday, Wednesday, Saturday lunchtime kick off. They trailed for 50 minutes in the first, which also came on the back of a Thursday Europa League tie and the next two are derby games. United will definitely be up for this, they are not totally out of Champions League contention themselves, in this strangest of seasons and are still in the FA Cup and Slaven Bilic's first season in charge and last at Upton Park, could hardly have gone better . The club have looked as good as anyone on a going day, witness road wins at Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City and they have unearthed a couple of superstars (Dimitri Payet is already heavily tipped for the POTY award), which might help them fill the Olympic Stadium next season. One game which was certainly not a "going day" was the 4-1 loss in the reverse fixture, that could have been 8-4 something like that, United had good chances early, but Spurs once they got ahead were all over the Hammers. Tottenham will go top of the EPL with all three points, with just ten rounds to play and a North London derby game with Arsenal less than 63 hours later, hard to think of any greater incentive and we will surely see both teams really go for this.

United's four home games against other top eight teams have all produced three or more goals with both teams scoring in each and I see this playing out similarly, neither team will lie down after conceding, Spurs have collected FAR more points than any other EPL team (17) from losing positions and the Hammers are third in that table.

over 2.75 goals 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2016, 01:07:29 PM »

When this guy's email goes out, odds get hammered.
Or at least they used to last year when i was checking.
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2016, 10:13:40 AM »

France Ligue2 Evian - Dijon

Dijon look like they are coasting back to Ligue 1, but after a few false alarms in recent campaigns, will not be taking anything for granted just yet. They sit 11 points clear of the team in fourth, but have scored two or more goals in each of their last four starts, including away to Laval and Le Havre, teams who do not give up a lot of goals. They are strong at home , losing just once all season, which was actually to Evian back in October, which will give the hosts hope, but also mean that DFCO will arrive looking for a little revenge too. Despite that home record, I have made no secret of the fact that I believe they are better suited to playing on the road, with Julio Tavares the perfect man to lead the line away from home.

Evian have to deal with the always difficult Monday-Friday turnaround, but will be up for a visit from the league leaders and can play their part in what should be an open encounter. They will have to do so without left back/winger Fabien Centoze who is suspended (Dijon have scored a lot of goals this season from that flank).

Dijon arrive short handed defensively with centre back and captain Cedric Varraut and right back Arnaud Souquet (no clean sheet in six starts without him) missing. Goals !

over 2.25 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket


 
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2016, 10:34:23 AM »

France Ligue 1 : Lyon - Guingamp

I was very keen on Lyon in this fixture last season , which they won 3-1 and I see a similar outcome this afternoon. Lyon are on a bit of a charge, especially at home where they have won their last three ( Bordeaux, Caen and runaway leaders PSG) scoring nine goals in the process and that is about as inpressive a sequence as you can put together in Ligue 1. Three points today will take them back into third and they will be looking to cement that as soon as possible, with as many as 12 teams still feeling they are in contention for what looks to be one remaining Champions League spot (Marseille in 14th are eight point adrift of Nice who are currently in third, but have two games in hand ). OL are the biggest club amongst the pack and kind of feel that a spot in Europe's premier competition is theirs by right and will want to continue putting on pressure on all the clubs around them. Guingamp have relegation concerns and will battle hard, but they have lost eight on the road already, they have scored seven goals in their last three starts, but have taken only a single point from those , conceding ten and it is fairly obvious where their problems lie. OL are stronger today than for the win over PSG with the return of Christophe Jallet, Samuel Umtiti and Clement Grenier, which gives a chance to freshen up and also highlights the depth the club have now built up (beating PSG missing 5 regulars). Not difficult to see a goal for Guingamp, but once the dust has settled, surely another reasonably comfortable home win, repeat of that 3-1 feels about right.

Lyon -1.25 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket

Lyon to win and both teams to score 3.10-3.30

 
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2016, 10:35:21 AM »


Champions League: Real Madrid - AS Roma


Real won 2-0 in Rome, just as they did in Schalke at the same stage last year, then making hard work of the home leg, losing 4-3 and looking in real trouble several times through a wild and craxy game . They will not want to put themselves through that again and something similar to the previous two second leg home ties a 3-1 and 4-1 win seems more likely this evening. Real have won their last two La Liga games, scoring ten, but conceding in each, Roma are on a roll since losing the first leg and have won three scoring 12 goals, actually the Real game aside they have won seven (22 goals) in a row and will be confident of finding a goal this evening, you would feel that the trip to Udinese on Sunday would now be given priority, but the heavy defeat of Fiorentina on Friday has given them a little breathing space in terms of top three and they can perhaps afford to give this their best shot, at least early.

Roma are much improved under Luciano Spalletti (see preview of the 5-0 win over Palermo below) and will see this perhaps as a true test of how far they have come, they had chances in the first leg, when they played almost exclusively on the break and it is easy to see them getting on the scoresheet again this evening. Having said that, Real have already lost at home to Barcelona and Atletico and will want to avoid a third, or repeat of what happened against Schalke last season, so again, when the dust has settled it has to be with a home win. 3-1/4-1.

Real Madrid to win and both teams to score 2.50 general quote, best alternative would have to be "over" 3.5 goals 2.17 asian line
 
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clubgowi
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« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2016, 10:23:41 AM »

Golf PGA Tour : Valspar Championship

Last week's WGC event at Doral was for the big hitters on Tour as I outlined on Thursday and once again the cream and the longest drivers made it to the top of the leaderboard and battled it out for the big cheques. However, someone who took my eye a little further down the leaderboard was Jason Dufner , who was ranked 121st for distance last year (110 in 2016) and was at a huge disadvantage on the "Blue Monster". He finished 11th, the best of the "short hitters" and had 20 birdies or better, which was two more than Bubba Watson who "should" have won and finished second . That is not the first time Duff has played well at Doral, but he cannot go to a course like that and give up 30-40 yards at many holes and stay competitive unless he is at, or at least near, the top of his game and he clearly is. Dufner has had a lot of issues to deal with in recent years, not least a very high profile and hurtful divorce and injury problems. He is a four time winner on Tour and has a major to his name, it should have been two, three of those wins came in a 18 months spell up to August 2013, during which he was ranked inside the top 10 on Tour for almost a year, with a high of #6. His game was good enough to become a multi winner , but then everything fell apart. He has taken a long time to get back on track, but won the aptly named CareerBuilder Challenge in January and we should not rule out another victory in 2016 on a course which suits and this might just be the one !

Duffner's record at Copperhead on the Innishbrook resort might not be spectacular, but could hardly be more solid and he has finished top 30 on each of his last seven visits, 14th and 24th on the last two in years when he was struggling with his game and life ,and now that he is back on an even keel, he can go better this week and he has additional incentive to do so. His world ranking is now back up to #62, he would get into the next big money WGC event (starts March 23rd) if he stayed inside the top 64 until this Sunday and top 50 over the next month would get him into the Masters and that would really herald his comeback.

Jason Dufner to finish top 20 2.375-2.50 general quote(best alternative top ten @ 3.75-4.50)....... he has finished 10th-28th on his last seven visits and a top 20 placing seems on the cards as a minimum if he comes even close to the form he showed last week, or at Copperhead previously and if he puts it all together, a big charge at the leaderboard and second win of the year is far from impossible .............

Jason Duffner to win outright 29.0 general quote


 
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« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2016, 10:21:26 AM »

France Ligue2: Bourg - Nancy

Bourg lost 2-1 last round and are falling closer and closer to the relegation zone and despite a point at Nimes last week (where they really rode their luck at times) they now sit just nine points off the bottom three, have collected just 14 points from 15 starts and have to be giving praise for such a solid start to life in Ligue 2. It is hard to get away from the idea that they have run out of steam (see above) and that they are no longer the surprise package they were early in the campaign. Today we have the second worse defence in L2 against the second best attack and there should certainly be goals in this for Nancy, who are looking to preserve their healthy lead in second place over the chasing pack. One, maybe more of Red Star, Le Havre, Clermont, Lens will come on strong in the next two months, Nancy know that and actually face two of those teams in the next four weeks and also travel to leaders Dijon and points today will surely be easier to come by and would greatly ease pressure ahead of those tough fixtures. I think they will be out all guns blazing for maximum points today and will be buoyed by their first real defensive performance last week in a 2-0 win over Red Star, however, it came at a cost and today they will be without both left back Vincent Muratori and central defender Mikael Chretien Basser, the pair have missed just three starts between them this season and that is very disruptive. Nancy had conceded twice in each of their previous four starts, including at home to Paris Fc and the visitors seem unlikely to win without conceding.

Bourg-en-Bresse : Fabri, Callamand, Alphonse, Faivre, Traore, N'Simba, Nirlo, Dembele, Berthomier, Damour, Ba, Bègue, Boussaha, Ogier, Boujedra, Dimitriou.

Nancy : Ndy Assembe, Samba - Cuffaut, Cétout, Diakhaté, Lenglet, Badila, Aït Bennasser, Guidileye, Pedretti, Iglesias, Lusamba, Puyo, Dalé, Robic, Hadji, Mabella, Busin.

over 2.75 goals 2.39 asian line/Sportmarket

Nancy to win and both teams to score 4.0-4.33 general quote

 
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clubgowi
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2016, 01:20:29 PM »

MLS: New York City FC - Toronto FC

Last round Toronto won 2-0 in the Big Apple, courtesy of two late goals , including a first of the season from star front man Sebastian Giovinco, he also laid on the second and now has "just" the 23 goals and 16 assists from 34 MLS starts, a scoring contribution every 73.5 minutes ! He came up short in two of three games against NYFC last season, but had an hat-trick and assist in a 4-4 draw here in the other, so you cannot keep a good man down for too long !

The game between Chicago and New York City was exactly what it looked like from the scoreline, a wide open, end to end encounter and even when City went "defensive" at 2-4, it barely changed anything, they looked vulnerable to pace at the back, but to score four on the road, without a goal from David Villa is hugely promising and I doubt new coach Viera will be any less offensive minded in his home debut. They looked to press high, tactics which worked so well for Red Bulls last year, but TFC got an early look at those and stifled them with a disciplined performance last week , that gives them an edge and with NYFC still coming to terms with the shift in tactics, i would be amazed if there were not goals in this for Toronto and the tireless Giovinco.

I can only see goals in this and feel that NYFC will need two to get a result and three+ to win.

Toronto to score "over" 1.5 goals 1.95-2.05 general quote if you can find it, if not, or even if you can .............

over 3.5 goals 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket


 
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clubgowi
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« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2016, 10:34:57 AM »

Champions League Manchester City - Dynamo Kiev

This looks job done for City after their 3-1 win in Kiev, but the hosts are not playing well and that game aside, they have beaten only Aston Villa since the start of last month, with a couple of heavy defeats along the way. Main focus will clearly be the Champions League of course, but they also have to finish top 4 as a minimum and ensure participation in the competition next season and currently in 4th and with West Ham just two points adrift and Manchester United (whom they play in the derby game on Sunday) just another two further back, there is every chance that they will play tonight with one eye on that game.

Kiev were rusty in the first leg, that was to have been expected, they had not played a competitive game in eleven weeks,they have now had four games since the winter break and will be approaching full fitness and ready to show their best.

Dynamo currently lead Shakhtar Donetsk, who are flying in the Europa League, by three points at the top of the Ukrainian domestic league, where Kiev are unbeaten on the road 8-1-0, conceding just three goals. In the CL they won 2-0 at both Porto and Maccabi Tel Aviv and were 1-1 at Stamford Bridge with eight minutes left to play, before conceding a late winner. They did not venture forward much there until after the break, but of course cannot afford to wait that long this evening, they looked dangerous when they did and in Andriy Yarmolenko they have a world class player who has 110 goals and 72 assists for Kiev in less than 300 appearance and from out wide, he has been in the form of his life in the last two seasons and has scored in each of his last three starts.

City are vulnerable, Dynamo MUCH better than they showed in the first leg and the edge in fitness/freshnest has probably swung their way now. City have conceded in their last nine Champions League starts and at the Etihad in their last 14 ! They have conceded two or more in ten of those (!), including to BMG, Plzen, CSKA Moscow (twice) and Ajax and if Dynamo look at that record, they will fancy their chances of scoring a couple of goals, even if ultimately it might not be enough.

Dynamo Kiev to score two or more goals 4.0-4.33 general quote, given that they have to gamble and that City can progress if they concede twice regardless of what they do themselves and that they have allowed two in 71.42% (10/14)of competition home games ( which equates to odds of 1.40), how can that possible be correct ?

Manchester City to win and both teams to score 3.0 general quote


 
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clubgowi
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« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2016, 10:15:33 AM »

Golf PGA Tour: Arnold Palmer Invitational

I expect Henrik Stenson to go well this week.He played solidly in Florida last year and should have won this tournament, trading as low as 1.11 in the final round, but ultimately having to settle for second, one of four runner up spots he registered in 2015. That is starting to get a little worrying (perhaps less so for his bank manager with career earnings of $42m) and the 39 yo Swede will want to register another win soon. He actually turns 40 in three weeks time, I have spoken a lot in the past about how golfers sometimes struggle (like many of us) in the build up to these milestone birthdays and they can often find the years in which they are 29 and 39 tough, but once they have passed and life goes on as before, form quickly returns and that might have been the case with Stenson. Not that his form has been terrible in the last 12 months, he has played 20 US events since the beginning of last year and made the cut in all 20 (actually he has not missed a cut in over two years and some 32 Tour events), he finished top 25 in 70% of those, top ten in 40% and that is consistency personified. He has also played two European Tour events this season finishing T3 and T6 .

He was a promising T11th at the Valspar Championship last week, finishing -1 for the tournament on a tough course, he was -9 on the Par 5's, you could argue that he struggled on the other holes, but Par 5 scoring has always been key to his performance and to him playing well and I take that as a significant and positive sign that he is heading in the right direction.He first played Bay Hill in 2007 and finished 22nd, he did not visit again until 2010, but has played and improved every single year since, finishing 52-47-15-8-5-2 and if that trend continues, he has only one place left to go ! Stenson lives in Orlando and his house is about a 20 minute drive from the Bay Hill complex and he is effectively playing a home game this week, since moving to Florida from Dubai, he has never finished outside the top ten in this event and I expect that to continue and for him to go very close this week,

If he doesn't win, first event after his 40th birthday party is the US Masters !

Henrik Stenson to win outright 13.0-15.0 general quote

Henrik Stenson to finish top five 3.50-4.0 general quote


 
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« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2016, 10:19:42 AM »

France Ligue2 Paris FC - FC Metz

Paris FC are like a throwback to Ligue 2 of a decade ago, maybe I am being harsh and they are just not good enough, it is "OK" to be bad, but to not give yourself the best possible chance to win, is unforgivable ! They are now ten points from safety, with eight rounds left to play and are going to get what they deserve from this season, I do not advocate violence very often, but if they are happy to sit back for 70 minutes + again this evening on home soil, no supporter should be charged for running onto the pitch and administering a kick up the backside to every member of the coaching staff ! Lybohy is again suspended and missing from the home backline. I feel they will at least attempt to go for it early tonight and 3 of their last 4 have gone comfortably "over".

Metz will surely come all guns blazing for three points, they are currently sixth, two points off promotion pace, but no one is going to get up to Ligue 1 by playing for a draw and 3rd spot is going to go to the wire and will, you have to feel, be claimed by the bravest of the pack. They have scored in 13 of their last 14 away starts (all comps) and conceded two or more in 7/8 on the road, 7/9 have gone "over" and both teams have scored in 10 of 13. I feel they are the more likely winner, but have to suggest the best value lies with ................over 2.5 goals 2.51 asian line/Sportmarket.

 
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« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2016, 01:00:46 PM »

La Liga: Real Madrid - Sevilla

Sevilla were easy 3-0 winners in Europa League and could largely switch off after the break, but the game still had to be played/won and a trip to Real is never easy, let alone when you have played just three days previously, the hosts are well rested and you are injury hit ! The visitors arrive in the capital missing a whole host of midfield talent with Banega, Khrohn-Dehli, Carrico, N'Zoni, Vitolo and Konoplyanka all absent, four of those started in the 3-2 win for Sevilla in the reverse fixture, which Real will be looking to avenge and another came off the bench, so we are talking about effectively half a team.

Real have the Champions League as their priority and will be delighted to have drawn Wolfsburg in the quarters, but they can afford to concentrate fully on La Liga for now and Atletico's defeat last night means that Real could move to within a point of them in second and that is incentive enough, but would also set up nicely their next game, which is the El Clasico game with champions elect Barcelona on April 2nd. "Big 3" games aside real are 27-3-3 at home averaging almost four goals per start and under Zinedine Yazid Zidane, their record in those fixtures is 5/5 with a 27-4 goal difference. Sevilla have yet to win on the road domestically and they have lost on their last seven visits to the Bernabeu , conceding 24 goals.

Cristiano Ronaldo has his best scoring record against Sevilla with 21 in 14 starts and he will be "hungry" after coming up short in the reverse fixture, he leads the way currently in the La Liga goalscoring market, one ahead of Luis Suarez and five clear of Lionel Messi and he will definitely want to record a third straight "golden boot", no one has recorded a hat trick of those since Hugo Sanchez in 1988 and that is a real target as big rival Messi is now unlikely to ever claim it . He is 2.75 + to score twice, 6.5 -9.0 to score a hat-trick, he has done that (score 3) five times previously against Sevilla. For some reason, Betfair Sportsbook offer a standout 3.50 and 13.0 respectively and that offers really good value and you could try something small if that appeals..... even 3.0 and 9.0 seem overpriced

Karim Benzema returns and it is easy to see plenty of goals in this (maybe a lot !) for a very strong looking home side , against a team short of midfield options who are coming off a Thursday game.

Real Madrid -1.75 goals 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket


 
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2016, 10:31:23 AM »

Scottish Championship: Glasgow Rangers - Dumbarton

Rangers are going to return to the SPL this season , but would surely like to get the job done and dusted this evening, which they can achieve with all three points. They are head and shoulders abover the rest of the Championship, which is to be expected given the size of the club and their fan base and circa 50,000 will be waiting to kick start the celebrations tonight, to put that into some context, Dumbarton have averaged a crowd of 734 for their last three home games . Home boss Mark Warburton believes in an attacking style of football and his teams never sit on a lead, his side have averaged 2.64 goals per game this season and just shy of 3 pg at Ibrox, included in those numbers were two wins ( scoring 4 and 6 goals ) in the last two starts against tonight's opponents and Warburton will want to get the job done in style. His team have actually conceded ten ( !) in their last three starts, but they won the home game in that sequence and two opponents had arguably more to play for and far more offensive threat than The Sons ( just 8 road goals all season) possess and only basement club Alloa Athletic have scored fewer.

Additional bonus for Rangers is that getting this signed and sealed early will allow them to focus fully on their Challenge Cup Final with Peterhead on Sunday and more importantly go into the Scottish Cup semi final with their biggest rivals Celtic, seven days later as an SPL club, albeit one "in waiting". The hosts have scored four goals next time out following dropped road points in 4/4 games at Ibrox and can make it 5/5 today after a 3-3 draw at Raith Rovers on Saturday.

Rangers to score "over" 3.5 goals (four or more) 2.625-2.875 general quote


 
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« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2016, 10:15:39 AM »

France Ligue 2 Paris FC - Bourg

Paris FC will be hugely buyoed by not only the win over a highflying team, but the four goals scored and surely we will continue to see them really go for it and all guns blazing for maximum points. That is now 5/6 of their games which have gone "over" and three not only produced four goals, but saw both teams score twice and with BEBP being "safe", the 4th highest scorers in L2 and having conceded more than any team apart from Creteil, this match now just screams goals, which is not something we would have said about any PFC fixture through the first seven months of the campaign ! The reverse fixture produced five goals and with the hosts need so great , I do not feel they will be overly worried about the Monday-Friday turnaround, given the boost the result will have doubtless given them and I also suspect that they will feel "comfortable" meeting, like on Monday, a fellow promoted team, a home win, which could take PFC to within five points of safety, might herald the playing of the "Great Escape" theme tune, but the best value remains .............

Paris FC : Thébaux, Demarconnay - Mohsni, Cantini, Jean-Tahrat, Pierre, T.Keita - Grange, Gamiette, I.Keita, Pereira De Sa, Bahamboula, Traoré - Camara, Fauvergue, Diarra.

BEBP: Callamand, Fabri, Alphonse, Berthomier, Boujedra, Boussaha, N'Simba, Ogier, Bègue, Sane, Nirlo, Traore, Faivre, Dembele, Damour, Ba.


over 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket
 
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2016, 10:19:22 AM »

Premier League: West Ham United - Arsenal

It is very hard for me to understand quite how the Gunners are not EPL champions elect, instead it looks like Leicester City and I never thought that I would be typing those words in my lifetime. Arsenal again faltered when the pressure was on and now, that it is off , we have seen a return to some of their better form and they have looked decent once more in back to back wins and cleansheets over Everton and Watford, scoring six in the process. They might not have beaten much (both teams are out of sorts), but confidence will have been boosted and Alexis Sanchez (Gunners are 10-1-0 when he scores and the last ten of those have all gone "over") is returning to form, Laurent Koscielny is back and they look far more composed with him in the line up and the performances of Mohamed Elneny and Alex Iwobi offer huge promise. They looked booked for top 3, so will surely not make their final trip to the Boleyn Ground with eyes on anything but maximum points and to try and put some pressure on the top two, if the Foxes are out of reach, Arsenal will still be motivated to finish above Tottenham, their deadliest rival.

United have had a final season to remember at Upton Park , look sure to finish top 6 and are still not out of the running for a Champions League spot, although back to back 2-2 draws have made that difficult. They are still in the FA Cup and have a big quarter final replay with Manchester United here in midweek. That could distract them, with a Wembley appearance up for grabs, but they are at full strength today and will surely look to keep the CL dream alive a little longer. When everything clicks, they have looked as good as anyone in the Premier league this season and are unbetaen on home soil in 15 starts (9-6-0) in all competitions.

Arsenal are unbeaten here in eight visits and have scored two or more goals in the last seven. United have conceded seven in their last four starts and with a point having very limited value to either side, it is easy to see both teams on the scoresheet today and the Hammers seven London derby games this season have averaged 3.29 goals and they have scored in each, two or more in five, Arsenal's eight starts against fellow top six teams have produced 3.625 goals per game and we will surely see more of the same this lunchtime.

over 3 goals 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket

 
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