Are lines statistically correct?

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maletaja
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maletaja

Are lines statistically correct?
« on: June 05, 2016, 12:56:06 PM »

I mean bookies and crowd create lines and they take margin. But are lines correct historically?
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Arbusers
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Re: Are lines statistically correct?
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2016, 05:13:48 PM »

I mean bookies and crowd create lines and they take margin. But are lines correct historically?

No universal answer for this question, but the only case when lines are wrong, is when a bookmaker goes under. If a bookmaker continues operating, it means that lines are correct.
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Are lines statistically correct?
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2016, 08:21:56 PM »

I mean bookies and crowd create lines and they take margin. But are lines correct historically?

No universal answer for this question, but the only case when lines are wrong, is when a bookmaker goes under. If a bookmaker continues operating, it means that lines are correct.

Thats exactly why pinnacle are no1, they let the smartest people bet with them and still make a profit.  Thats why I think they are the line, even sharper than exchanges.

They dont care that sometimes their odds create arbs, even with the exchanges, they let the money talk!
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middler
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Re: Are lines statistically correct?
« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2016, 04:55:22 PM »

It is hard to answer the question as it involves every market in every game in every sport, and liquidity plays a big role.
However, if what you care about is games where there have been line movements big enough to offer significant value, you will see that the sharp lines are usually accurate on the long run.
From a financial view point, and in my own experience, I would say that if you measure big leagues with HIGH LIQUIDITY markets, you will find lines very accurate.
However, I would even say that if you value bet, taking into account that value is always measured against pinnacle's lines, the yield in the long run is higher than the value you are calculating. And this tells me that extra value comes from smaller leagues with lower liquidity.
Anyway, it is just an opinion based on my own experience.. Try arbing or value betting and you will find your own answer.
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