Advice when using arbing tool

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Not even a newbie

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Advice when using arbing tool
« on: July 11, 2016, 06:34:34 PM »


I am quite new to arbing - i was introduced by a couple of friends and the possibility of risk-free returns really drew me in. My friends and I are actuaries and arb on the side by checking oddschecker and letting each other know when opportunities arise. I wouldn't say we have a lot of time invested in it but my more experienced friends have seemed to make a decent amount on the side for little work. They bet a lot on rugby handicaps - finding odds such that if one team win by a certain amount of points they double there money - happens around 3% of the time but it's clean and they put as much down as the bookies will allow so it's great when they hit that target. Both have been restricted by bookies but not to the extent that they can't arb.

I am interested in making risk-free profits in the long-run but I'm not sure if arbing is a long-term possibility. Before I get into some of the questions I was hoping to get advice on I'll fill you in on the tool I've created. It's an odds scraping tool that constantly scans Oddschecker and emails me when the returns from an arb it has found exceed a certain threshold. I've included an example of the email below. It  allows me to exclude bookies, specify a return threshold and exclude in-play events and it tells me how much I should bet on each outcome given a stake amount as well as other information such as the extent of mis-pricing of each of the odds.

Dear Mr. *****,
Please see below details of latest arbitrage opportunity:

                  Threshold: 0.01
                 Include Live Play: No
                  Restrict Time: No
          Exclude Bookies: Yes
Exclude Repeating Bookies: No

Date of event: Sunday 14th August 2016
         Time: 13:30
        Sport: Football
        Event: UK Football Coupon
Bournemouth Wins: 5.5  (18.2%)  --  Betfair [Value Index 1: 0.43% Value Index 2: 6.38% ]
        Draw: 3.75 (26.7%)  --  Bet 365 [Value Index 1: 1.11% Value Index 2: 3.64% ]
    Man Utd Wins: 1.91 (52.4%)  --  Coral [Value Index 1: 2.29% Value Index 2: 7.52% ]
   Live Play: No
Target ROI: 2.88%
 Team A Wins: 18
        Draw: 27
 Team B Wins: 52
Return Level: 100
      Profit: 2.79 EU

I've been testing the tool and seeing where the opportunities are coming from. The evidence so far is that there are a lot of opportunities and the tool appears to work correctly but I'm a bit unsure as to the best approach to take is. I have listed some questions below:

1. I've been told that I would get my account limited or closed down if I took advantage of an arb that was the result of an obvious mispricing. I see a few cases each week of this i.e. 20%+ return in some cases. My question is should I avoid these completely? A more general question around this is whether there is a return above which you should not bother taking advantage of any arbs as this would attract attention i.e. 10% +?

2. The more I read about arbing the more I'm concerned about it's "risk-free" nature. It seems from stories I've read that bookies can close your account and not return your money if they suspect you have been arbing - to what extent is this true? The fact that you need to invest a lot to make a worthwhile return would mean that this risk (if it does exist) is a very significant one. Even if this were to happen one in 100 times, it would still be a far too significant risk to make it worth taking.

3. Similar to the last question, I've heard bookies can void your bets if they suspect you're arbing. How much of a risk is this? If you have a few thousand at stake, can one of the bookies void your bet during or after the event if they think you're arbing?

4. Are there any bookies that should be avoided at all costs? Or alternatively, is there a list of bookies that are suitable to exploit for arbitrage opportunities.

Basically, I'm just looking to see if there are a set of rules or boundaries in arbing which, if followed, would enable someone to make genuinely risk-free returns in the long-term or should I just call it quits. I was hoping to make about £10k on the side each year from this but I'm becoming more and more skeptical as I learn more about it.

Any advice or guidance on this would be much appreciated. 


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Re: Advice when using arbing tool
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2016, 05:03:35 PM »

Long posts like this, do not allow most of the people to answer and help you. The use of blue color with no obvious reason is also discouraging.
Your post could be an advertisement of a product that you might be selling. If this is the case I suggest you read the T&Cs of the forum.

 make a decent amount on the side for little work.

This is a bad mentality that i suggest you get rid of.

No, lets take your questions one by one.
1. Every arb above +3-4% should be treated with care. You need to have some experience to understand when a bet will stand and when the bookmaker voids. There is no universal answer here.
2. This is not ''risk free''. you must stay with reputable books in order to avoid unfair confiscations and adventures. Read the forum and you will find out who is a go and who is a no go. The more money you bring in, the more you profit. Dont expect to make anything significant with a capital of 2-3k, unless you live in a 3rd world country.
3. Yes, this happens all the time. If you gain experience you will be able to say which bet stands and which is going to be a void. You need to select bookmakers carefully. just a quick example, Singbet will most probably void any price higher than the competition of other asian bookmakers.
4. Read the forum.

This is a journey. You might start with arbing, but you might end up somewhere else. If you don't make the 1st step you will never know. Keep in mind that a general statistic shows that only 2% of gamblers can make it to be winners in the long run. This is an environment of competition.
Has some experience

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Re: Advice when using arbing tool
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2016, 10:40:37 PM »

2% man thats sad.
Good info as always arbusers!
Look into value bets if ur bored OP lotssssssssssssss of good info in the forum that helped me and with a couple tweaks to the ideas, I found it to be more profitable and I enjoy it more as I don't have to deal with headaches of cashouts where my roll is and all that type mess.

Fade Fairpunter's picks for sure profits!

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Re: Advice when using arbing tool
« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2016, 04:22:33 PM »

I have experience on a similar project and my advice as already mentioned in the previous thread is to never go for arbs with more than 3% profit, as you risk bet voiding and errors from the bookies' side.

Another suggestion I would like to give you is that since you are a programmer and wrote the scraping part, take your project further and try to write modules that place bets on your behalf. I am working on a project similar to yours and found this very helpful as your bets will be placed instantly without the risk of suffering bet movements after you have started placing your bets. The downside I observed is that you get limited faster at certain bookies.
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