When does an odd have value? (page 2)

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antemartic
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antemartic

Re: When does an odd have value?
« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2016, 12:13:03 PM »

and what tipsters do?? Of course their picks must have value to won money. For most of you value is if have better odds than sharp?  what would you do place bets on marathon? There are other ways to find value.
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Thordin
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Re: When does an odd have value?
« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2016, 03:19:02 PM »

Most are just making stats up, or are plain lucky for a few months.
A few can be lucky for years. If anyone thinks its not possible to be lucky for years, go and read 'Fooled by Randomness' and the rest of Taleb's books.
Some just ''theoretically'' value bet on softs like betvictor, paddypower etc, make themselves some nice stats.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 03:20:39 PM by Thordin » Logged
luctens
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Re: When does an odd have value?
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2016, 03:14:14 AM »

Tipsters are an absolute minefield. I don't use tipsters and never will and there's only about 3 tipsters out of the hundreds that I've come across that are credible. As a rule, the vast majority of tipsters are outright scammers, chancers and the like.

The worst one though has got to be this guy Steve Stevens, who prances around calling himself "The Bookie Killer"  ::)



He talks the biggest load of rubbish I've ever seen.

The worst thing is the amount of uneducated and gullible people that are brainwashed with all of them thinking that by following tipsters they have the passport to wealth.

Sometimes tipsters have a reason for doing a tipping service rather than just doing the picks themselves and the very few out there that are credible will tell you the reason for this.

But with the overwhelming majority of these tipsters, you've simply just got to remember that if they had such a great "system" or whatever, they wouldn't be telling you one thing about it so them telling other people about whatever secret they claim to have is the sure fire giveaway that in the vast majority of situations, their "system" is absolute crap.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 03:40:16 AM by luctens » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: When does an odd have value?
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2016, 09:21:10 AM »

bbc_standard_quote">Luctens, do you share your own arbitrage methods here ?
There are many experienced old arbers here and nobody shares his experience here.
you can find many things about arbing here but these are just basic methods.

Once a method is shared here, it becomes public knowledge and the method will no longer work.

If you use the basic methods for a while, you'll start finding edges you can exploit on your own from experience.
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ralphyboy
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Re: When does an odd have value?
« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2016, 08:24:05 AM »

What is considered the best basic strat that is publicly available as a newcomer I'm looking for a starting point to educate myself and begin arbing.
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kustef
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Re: When does an odd have value?
« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2016, 03:18:46 PM »

guys how to calculate high odds valuebets?

For example..

Lets say we have a match
Bayern vs Duisburg and odds are 1.18   8  19

Other bookmaker have odds 23 for away win.. Do you consider it as value bet ?
Usually betfair will have best lay odds around 26 

I think i can do just this:
- bet only odds where there is and arb or very low loss with Betfair (when there is lay 24 for example)
- ignore these big odds valuebets, because of swings


Thank you for your opinions
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