How to calculate stakes

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Namnam
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How to calculate stakes
« on: August 21, 2016, 08:20:43 PM »

Hi guys. Am feeling a bit stupid today so I want help with how to calculate stakes. Situation: I have a betfair offer giving me 100% bonus on my total WINS up to 100€ during a few days. I am planning on just make one (matched) bet to cover this. But how shall I put my stakes to be sure of a profit regardless if I actually WIN something in betfair or not?

Example odds (but any could work!): Back with softbook @ 3.1 odds, Lay with Betfair @ 3,0 odds (and 6,5% commission on that).

Thanks
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 09:03:04 PM by Namnam » Logged
dealer wins
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2016, 10:55:44 PM »

If you normally use betfair a lot, take a holiday to avoid a sharp points deduction!
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Namnam
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2016, 11:05:47 PM »

If you normally use betfair a lot, take a holiday to avoid a sharp points deduction!

Hi, I don't really understand. What do you mean by this? Would it somehow be bad for me to exploit this bonus?
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Arbusers
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2016, 06:12:37 AM »

Nam, could you copy paste the exact text of the bonus that you were offered?
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Namnam
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2016, 07:00:42 AM »

Nam, could you copy paste the exact text of the bonus that you were offered?

Sure! Translated from Swedish:


"Hi Namnam,

A lot of big sporting events is going on, and we want to raise stakes with of this offer:
Place a bet on the betting exchange between 19/08/2016 and 25/08/2016.
Get 100% bonus on your winnings, up to 1000 SEK.

What do I do?

You need to place bets on the betting exchange in any market during the promotional period, the date of which you can see in the message that was sent to you. Your game must be on the betting exchange, and the games have to be completed within the dates set out in the notice that was sent to you. Fixed Odds and multiples do not count towards this promotion. Games must be matched and completed / corrected to count.


What is the offer?

If you place your games according to the rules above and you make a net profit of your total play during the promotional period, you get a bonus of 100% of the net profits, up to the maximum amount indicated in your message.

If you do a net loss of your qualifying game, you are not entitled to a bonus."
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Namnam
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2016, 08:47:33 AM »

I'll reply to myself, since I think I figured it out.

I overbet at the softbook so that if I loose at Betfair I still get a net profit. I calculated so that the total payout was 1000 SEK higher at softbook for balanced payment. I noticed that the best payout % was when the odds att Betfair was low (or lay a high odds) and the odds at softbook was high. Similar to the method used when trading a "Stake Not Returned" free bet. Seems I now will pocket about 800 SEK of the possible 1000 SEK, so that's decent I think.
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Arbusers
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2016, 10:53:43 AM »

I suggest you bet high odds on betfair and low in a bookmaker. In the equitation you take under consideration the 1000 SEK. If you lose in betfair you repeat everything and again you take under consideration the 1000 SEK. You can repeat the procedure until the bet that wins in betfair. Like this, you will take the same bet multiple times, unless you re unlucky and you get it only once.
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Namnam
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2016, 11:06:25 AM »

I suggest you bet high odds on betfair and low in a bookmaker. In the equitation you take under consideration the 1000 SEK. If you lose in betfair you repeat everything and again you take under consideration the 1000 SEK. You can repeat the procedure until the bet that wins in betfair. Like this, you will take the same bet multiple times, unless you re unlucky and you get it only once.

I did not think of this! Very good idea (allthough I now have made just the opposite, but if I loose at BF I can keep exploiting it)! The bonus is on NET WINNINGS though, so that means I would need to higher my stakes each time so I have a 1000 SEK net winning on BF in the end to get the bonus.
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Arbusers
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2016, 11:16:47 AM »

Yes, you have to include the commission paid to betfair.
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Namnam
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Re: How to calculate stakes
« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2016, 09:37:10 PM »

Haha, what a stroke of luck! I just won a 17,3 odds bet at Pinny to loose on BF, so I can take this offer for another spin... Need to win about 2000€ on BF though, so will be hard to find a good arb.
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