« on: September 28, 2016, 12:58:44 PM »
Hello fellow arbers!
As with many I've been quietly watching this forum for months now after realising I wasn't the only one in the world doing this
After reading about value bets I decided to cut the data from all my arbs any way I could to look for other ways of finding the value, and interestingly the "everyone bets on the favourite" theory is the one that stands out as surprisingly accurate. While odds of under-2.0 return on average only 99% of what the decimal would imply they should, my over-2.0 section averages out to nearly 105% (and I have 102.8% in total, which is reassuring!). Note this only covers ~1000 bets so far.
The clear implication, if this becomes statistically significant, is that as well as not-betting-pinny we can also not-bet-the-favourite for the same effect.
Obviously other users on here will bet different markets catering to different demographics of punters etc etc, but since I'm sure some of you have much larger datasets to interrogate, I would be very interested to see if anyone else has seen the same trend.
(if this has already been discussed and I missed it, please feel free to delete/move this post)