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valuebet vs arbitrage

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Author Topic: valuebet vs arbitrage  (Read 4017 times)
gamblehappier
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« on: October 22, 2016, 12:01:07 AM »

Hi to this brilliant forum,very good work.Most people (especially newbies) occupy with  arbitrage which of course gives sure profit.But in my opinion ,everyone who know basics mathematics  will leave arbitrage and go for valuebet,and i mean bet on soft side on the other leg of pinnacle (arbusers the admin has make brilliant topics about this.)So i did, i decide to left arbitrage and go for value on soft with good bank management(about 4/100 bet).The result is not good after 100 bets(1.2-4 odd) as i have lost enough,about 25/100 of my bankroll.Do you think is enough 100 bets??(personally i did not think(at least 500) for this reason i will continue).I think the key is patience,psychology and of course bank management.You also trust pinnacle odds on low markets such as tennis point or hockey?Because interviews of traders say the opposite ;)Share some results and opinions.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2016, 12:29:14 AM by gamblehappier » Logged

RoosterDonky
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2016, 06:28:27 PM »

Good Insights Jak.
I agree 100 bets is not enough.
If I used 100 bets as a decision point I'd of packed up and said F this after September.
Variance happens when trying to make a 5-10% edge pay off.
I use 1% BRM and go up to 1.5% depending on value or if I have to lay chalk.
Ways to minimize variance include targeting only odds that give you value over a certain threshold (Example 7%)
Another way is to only bet unders and underdogs.
Another way is to only bet above if there is a line move on our side.
Example- Bowling Green+10 -110 at 1 hour before game time.
The line 10 minutes before game time gets bet to BG+10 -120, then that is a bet if you can get certain value (7%+)
Why bet only on unders and underdogs you ask?
Because we know how the public bets and when they bet.
We also know that 90+% of the public loses.
So we know they bet on Favorites and Overs usually 1 hour before game time.
So if the odds go as listed above in the BG example, who is betting that large amount of money contrary to public action?
The answer is people that know more about the sport than me or you and have a BR big enough to move lines.
Thankfully bookmaking is not like the stock market.
In the stock market shares of a stock cost the same no matter what platform you use to access shares.
With Bookmakers there is not a centralized price and they cater to the clientele they have and also know how they bet.
Bookmakers are also businesses that will try to squeeze extra profit out of their business (IE-Shade Lines based on how their clients bet)
This is why a combo of value betting, steam chasing and contrarian betting will and has done well for me.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 10:35:28 AM by Arbusers » Logged

gamblehappier
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 03:56:03 AM »

Yes both you said are right,and useful tips.I bet underdogs all the time,Me personally i bet most on live(later limits) but maybe i think that if you find value in the odds pregame its better and more trustable than live(more time books to analyze odds,right?)?(From now i play with only 0.5 -1/100 of my bankroll but almost  i have lost 50/100 of it in a few days but who cares,if i become aggresive with bets in order to gain my lost bankroll may i will lose more.The only thing that i may disagree is the non europeuan underdogs, first) because  not a lot of people bet on these matches so why to be value on under? and second) maybe fixed mathces(colombia,mexico etc..)?play under the last minutes in these leauges is a little strange and trust me i say this from personal experience i have lost enough.Maybe is bad luck bad also traders of pinny say  that lose money there. ;)
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ProfGambler
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2016, 09:20:05 AM »

Hi to this brilliant forum,very good work.Most people (especially newbies) occupy with  arbitrage which of course gives sure profit.But in my opinion ,everyone who know basics mathematics  will leave arbitrage and go for valuebet,and i mean bet on soft side on the other leg of pinnacle (arbusers the admin has make brilliant topics about this.)So i did, i decide to left arbitrage and go for value on soft with good bank management(about 4/100 bet).The result is not good after 100 bets(1.2-4 odd) as i have lost enough,about 25/100 of my bankroll.Do you think is enough 100 bets??(personally i did not think(at least 500) for this reason i will continue).I think the key is patience,psychology and of course bank management.You also trust pinnacle odds on low markets such as tennis point or hockey?Because interviews of traders say the opposite ;)Share some results and opinions.

Each to their own, but I am totally against Value betting. Another myth only. Just ask any value bettor here, where are their Ferrari's or private jets???? Most of value bettor promoters here probably struggling to pay next month rent. If value betting had any value, there would be sophisticated tech firms making full advantage just like stock market. But that's not the case. So don't fool yourself and do something productive.
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gamblehappier
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2016, 12:55:55 PM »

ProfGambler your argument is who have the ferraris?Because my argument are odds.And if in a forum of 4000 members 3800 are arbers and the others 200 valuebettors who you think statically will have jets and ferrari?And doesnt make sense cause its about bankroll of people.The key is who have the best roi in long term.More experienced members will tell that every year money will go from asians to soft bookies and this is the reason why asians make money with so little juice!They try to take a juice of your winnings.Why do you think pinni and every pinni begging you to bet with them.Are churches?No,but they think that with so huge amounts of arbing ,even with so little juice they will make money from arbers(big amount of bets) as they set the correct odds.For this reason winners and arbers are welcome ..And what do you think,valuebbeting is like having a bookmaker with  2-14/100 odds better than pinni and asians odds.You will not be profitable?Think it :)
« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 12:58:51 PM by gamblehappier » Logged

RoosterDonky
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2016, 06:19:24 PM »

You can also minimize variance by targeting certain odds in a certain range (Example -200/+200).
You can also minimize it by placing bets closer to start time (Example-Within 1 hour)
I stopped betting soccer as it was profitable but not as profitable as US/Canadian sports.
With this "myth" I have earned a 110% ROI since May.
Ignore the losers of the chat who couldn't figure it out or lost after 50 games so they gave up.
And as far as the Ferrari's or private jets remember the lesson of Rich Dad/Poor Dad.
The forever poor when they make money they will spend it on trivial things, The successful see the money that they earned and try to figure out a way to use it so they can make more.
"If value betting had any value, there would be sophisticated tech firms making full advantage"
There are programs out there to use and you can use arbing software to find value bets also.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 10:35:54 AM by Arbusers » Logged

janajana
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2016, 06:41:09 PM »

It is clear, that in the end of the season sharp accounts are wiped and soft are full.
 But what happens in the process of arbing ?
Say your bank is 20.000
you wager 1000 at willy and hedge 1000 at pinny - calculated EV+ with willy +40 , EV- with pinny -20, arb profit +20
you do it 100 times during the season to profit +2000 .
My question is: would you place 100 bets of 500 at willy to make the same theoretical profit in the end of season ? Your bank could be 40.000 or ZERO in no time.
Three years ago, I placed 500 flat bets in 5 months, and believe or not, I was 120 units down. Even considering 2% juice, it was negative variance of 110 bets. I didnt made recovery until Wimbledon next year. So be very careful with value betting compared to arbing.
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Arbusers
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2016, 07:49:53 PM »

Value betting is alive and it works for those who know how to use it. The same applies for arbing.
I wouldn't say that the ratio is 3800-200. I believe we have more value bettors and I can surely say that the stream takes people from arbitrage bringing them to value betting.
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Arbusers
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2016, 08:44:57 PM »

To keep you warm, I can now reveal that there are 2-3 projects that will come out in the market soon.
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tarzan
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2016, 10:23:40 PM »

Is it something for value betting?
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ProfGambler
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2016, 01:40:00 AM »

Keep on dreaming every body. Value betting is not going to take you there. Most value betting can do is give you few $100 profit at end of season. Show me value bettor here who made it big other than Billy Walters, Alan woods and Zeljko. So do something productive which will make you confirm money eg create a forum like arbusers, develop software like rebel betting/betburger. Chasing big money through value betting is not possible as time and again you will fail. If someone is claiming he is making 3% ROI on total volume of bet each year through value betting, I can invest $100,000 provided he shows me last 3 years data. Any takers????
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 03:48:35 AM by ProfGambler » Logged

ProfGambler
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2016, 03:47:42 AM »

Also, you can't make profit doing value betting. Biggest reason???? Because if you doing good in any softbook, you will be banned. What you going to do then??? How many fake accounts you will make???

But if for you good profit is few tenners or few 100's, then go for it and keep on wasting time. For me big profit is minimum couple of thousands per week and yes that's minimum. There is no softbook that will take my action.

So stop fooling yourself and do something productive. As arbusers mentioned, some new projects are coming. I am assuming these projects are on value betting. Whoever launching these projects is a smart guy who knows he will make confirm money by selling value bets and small time gamblers will pay for his ferrari's and his harem via subscription.
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gamblehappier
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2016, 04:46:13 AM »

RoosterDonky nice tips again,how are the limits with american sports?In these sports, in live ,when pinni is offline i believe that you trust bet365 odds more in order to find the values right?Also i have heard that there are quick limits..To say the true i have lost enough until now with valuebetting,it was also a bad sunday for me, i was also aggresive at past almost 50/100 of my bank lost.Arbusers i was false it was an example the number , i think is 50/50 but typically only valuebbetors without arbing at all maybe lower tha 50/100.   
             
Profgambler valuebetting is productive like arbing or trading(which i personnaly think is better from arbing if you hit valuebets(no juice) and have a knowledge of trading and how money line move),everyone choose but i prefer valuebetting,that doesnt mean that i will not trade/arb anymore,because i want to have my balance stable.You can do both.I forgot also to say that if you use betfair in arbing there are also premium charges which means also another commision except juices of every bookmaker,pinni etc...Another point for valuebetting.If you are bookmaker and a bettor hit a soft line with 20$(valubettor) and another one with 200$(arber) and win who you will limit first ?I dont think that limits come only from your winnings but also how much you hit the weak line and how many times.Limits will come whether you are valuebettor or arber,and i dont think that in a valuebbetor will come faster, because he uses low stakes despite arber.For this reason you play 3  big bets of fresh accounts and they limit you.Furthermore you dont take point that as an arber money go to soft so again winnings in soft bookies on long term(but of course less in comparisson with valuebbeting).Also think when you play a big amount of money and win in a soft you atrract much more attention than winning a small stake valuebbeting. ;) Anyway everyone can do what he want or do both and the long term future results will show which is more productive...
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 04:53:31 AM by gamblehappier » Logged

Arbusers
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2016, 04:58:48 AM »

Dear ProfGambler
I m not allowed to name these people that make their living from value betting, but please, read the forum. You will find them by your self. It seems that you are mixing some things. You can do value betting even by using only exchanges and pinnacle. In that case you don't need multiple accounts, soft books etc. All you have to do is develop your strategy, a strategy that works.
You are asking for a 3% ROI on total volume. Do the maths again. You are asking for too much. Your level of greed is unheard. Successful value bettors will look for an edge of 0.2-0.5% and they will be more than happy to have it. So if someone is fighting for this edge, why offer you a free meal of 3%?
I personally know RebelBetting, Betburger, other software developers, successful high rollers and value bettors, I can also speak of my self. Believe me, none of these people have a Ferrari, not to mention of a harem. Almost all of us are family people with kids. The mentality of these people are far more different than the one that you think.
On the contrary, I m noticing a number of new comers, younger people, that adopt this consumer spending mentality (to put it mildly), they are not lasting. They attack like locusts, destroying the market for a minimal profit, thinking that they found the contact that will give them the fixed game in Kazakstan (yeah, this is the Ferrari guy that sucks stupid believers), not allowing anyone else (not even their selves) to survive and in the end crying publicly because a bookmaker shuts them down with no alternative. These people will have 2-3 good seasons, before a dead end comes up forcing them to invest in a beach bar if there is any money left from the paid (in cash or incentives) bitches crewing their harem.
I am sad to say these things, but these people do exist and they are slaughtering the cow that would feed us all for years. If you ever find any of the old timers, these people that started in the golden years of 2001-2004, you will see that they never slaughter the cow. Their level of greed is perfectly calculated. The overall mentality is ''better make 100 euros in 10 years, than 20 euros in 1''.
Now take my personal advise. Unless you are trying to discourage others (yes, we have many people like this in the forum), you are obviously missing something about value betting. While keeping the strategy that makes you 2k weekly, start looking for alternative solutions that will cost you nothing but thinking time.
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2016, 07:39:26 AM »

"Chasing big money through value betting is not possible as time and again you will fail."
You pretty much prove your ignorance by that statement there.
Who says anything about chasing big money?
It's a mathematical grind over time.
Done with a proper bankroll and rules.
If the true odds are 110 but you get 120, your simple mind just can't seem to grasp how that can be profitable long term.
Commendable. Don't let that stop you from airing your "well informed" opinion though.
Make yourself a compounding BR excel spreadsheet, if you can even do that or know what Excel is, and you'll see how a small return reinvested compounds over time.
You can also look in threads at which others have posted on this site like Arbusers said or you can cling to your ignorance and just type whatever you think is right with no applicable experience.
Or maybe you do have experience but couldn't hack a little variance?
I guess we who do it, and who don't comment on things we don't understand, are just lying eh?

"Show me value bettor here who made it big other than Billy Walters, Alan woods and Zeljko."
Weren't these people handicappers?
Do you not even understand the difference between a handicapper and value betting?
I mean really.

"If value betting had any value, there would be sophisticated tech firms making full advantage just like stock market. "
Ya cause big time market movers are never gonna get restricted at soft books. So OBV they're gonna pour millions into software to make 5K at a soft book.
Basically you have other threads / forums here where people post their results share ideas and tell others how to do it.

What do you do? You cling to a bad experience or ignorance and just spew utter nonsense.

Proverbs 18:2-3 Fools have no interest in understanding; they only want to air their own opinions.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 07:42:14 AM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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