valuebet vs arbitrage (page 5)

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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #60 on: January 08, 2017, 03:36:29 PM »

Yes i understsand that pinnacle=volume and is god who says how the lines should be


But i dont understand one thing. small league. soft has their lines. Pinnacle comes with new lines 350 max bet!(it shows there shouldnt be volume)
One soft i can make 4k bet and it changes lines becouse of pinancle opening low volume odds!

So my question is can soft room change pinancle when i hit i have for example inside info and im starting hitting that 4k bet soft room...
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #61 on: January 08, 2017, 11:00:16 PM »

Yes i understsand that pinnacle=volume and is god who says how the lines should be


But i dont understand one thing. small league. soft has their lines. Pinnacle comes with new lines 350 max bet!(it shows there shouldnt be volume)
One soft i can make 4k bet and it changes lines becouse of pinancle opening low volume odds!

So my question is can soft room change pinancle when i hit i have for example inside info and im starting hitting that 4k bet soft room...

A soft changing it's line will not move Pinnacle.  Pinnacle only moves when they receive bets.  If that Pinnacle line was not so good and they have little confidence in it, they will have a low limit.  Having a low limit will allow them to quickly get the "correct" odd as after a few max bets on the wrong side of that line, the odd will have dropped to something more correct.

This does not mean you can't find value in small markets at Pinnacle, there is a lot of value there especially at the early odds.  This is why they open sometimes with limits of 80€ or so in those markets.  After a few max bets the odd will settle on something reasonably correct and they've only taken a few hundred euro in risk, which can be fairly easily offset or made back with bets taken on the "correct" odds as the starting time of the game draws closer and their book balances out.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #62 on: January 08, 2017, 11:12:38 PM »

i dont get it soft could be getting 100k+bets  while pinnacle min bet is 80 and wont raise over 350. So there cannot be large volume in pinnacle
example 1

1.85 1.85 soft i hit 4k bet soft wont change because they follow pinnacle crappy stake 1.9 1.9 max 80 bet
I hit pinnacle 4k odds change smth 1.75 2.3 then soft starts to "live"
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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #63 on: January 09, 2017, 06:29:18 AM »

This will be entertaining, watching yall trying to explain value betting to Fairpunter.
Be prepared for such gems such as.... it didn't work yesterday so it doesn't work ever.
If any of you guys do succeed pm me i need some help explaining the effects of a  compounding bank roll to my 3 legged dog Lucky.
I'm gonna pop some popcorn up and enjoy this mayhem.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2017, 06:36:49 AM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #64 on: January 09, 2017, 10:50:50 AM »

i dont get it soft could be getting 100k+bets  while pinnacle min bet is 80 and wont raise over 350. So there cannot be large volume in pinnacle
example 1

1.85 1.85 soft i hit 4k bet soft wont change because they follow pinnacle crappy stake 1.9 1.9 max 80 bet
I hit pinnacle 4k odds change smth 1.75 2.3 then soft starts to "live"

Your soft will not change their policy because 1 player hits a very soft line for 4k in a crappy market.  If anything, they will quickly go under by allowing such action and I can guarantee you they won't allow 4k bets on a small market for long as this is simply a terrible business model that is not sustainable long term.
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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #65 on: January 09, 2017, 04:01:49 PM »

Actually with your failed picks thread...
You showed us what crying was.

http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,3768.105.html#msg53376

"It was very bad day for me"
:(
" you "Market makers" amaze me"
:(
"I honestly say that new season begins bad to me"
:(
"gambling is very stressful"
:(
" this means Dmitri Payet f..ked my other 80% profit for that match."
:(

Here's your new theme song....



« Last Edit: January 09, 2017, 04:19:20 PM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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middler
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middler

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #66 on: January 09, 2017, 09:35:39 PM »

Gambling is a very big word.

The way you are saying it, means that any form of investment with uncertainty is a gamble and therefore almost any decision you take in life is a gamble.

Would placing a bet for djokovic against some itf guy at odds 2,0 be a gamble?

There is uncertainty of course, but do you think that there is a reason why yo would get at most 1,01 (if you even get the chance to place a bet)?

Of course it is an example where difference is very big, but that doesn't mean that on closer events there aren't overpaid results.

You need to understand that value betting is not about always picking the winner, but picking the overpaid odds.

Why do you think that it is possible to place an arb? Do you think that you have 2 fair and accurate odds that will create guaranteed profit for you?
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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #67 on: January 10, 2017, 08:26:21 AM »

Guys we have this forum to be more productive. It is no sense to insult each other, we are in the same boat

Fairpunter mentioned crying so I thought he'd be interested in crying posts...made by himself.
Sucks when you accuse others of something when you have a history of that activity that is 5X worse than what you are accusing the other person of.
Oh and the humanity to be called out on it.
Sad day for Fairpunter indeed.
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GrayGreen
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GrayGreen

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #68 on: January 10, 2017, 08:36:12 AM »

Gambling is a very big word.

The way you are saying it, means that any form of investment with uncertainty is a gamble and therefore almost any decision you take in life is a gamble.

Would placing a bet for djokovic against some itf guy at odds 2,0 be a gamble?

There is uncertainty of course, but do you think that there is a reason why yo would get at most 1,01 (if you even get the chance to place a bet)?

Of course it is an example where difference is very big, but that doesn't mean that on closer events there aren't overpaid results.

You need to understand that value betting is not about always picking the winner, but picking the overpaid odds.

Why do you think that it is possible to place an arb? Do you think that you have 2 fair and accurate odds that will create guaranteed profit for you?

Well explained sir.

Couldn't explain it better even myself. I especially agree with

"You need to understand that value betting is not about always picking the winner, but picking the overpaid odds."

It is exactly as you say,

GG
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