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valuebet vs arbitrage (page 6)

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Author Topic: valuebet vs arbitrage  (Read 5737 times)
RoosterDonky
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« Reply #75 on: January 09, 2017, 06:29:18 AM »

This will be entertaining, watching yall trying to explain value betting to Fairpunter.
Be prepared for such gems such as.... it didn't work yesterday so it doesn't work ever.
If any of you guys do succeed pm me i need some help explaining the effects of a  compounding bank roll to my 3 legged dog Lucky.
I'm gonna pop some popcorn up and enjoy this mayhem.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2017, 06:36:49 AM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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fairpunter
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« Reply #76 on: January 09, 2017, 09:06:30 AM »

For fairpunter: Listen to this guys..!  Ther is still possible to bet on pinnacle big league closing odds and make profit. I don't know know how,but if you have more accurate model than pinnacle closing odds you can surely do it. In soccer are possible only 3 results , home win, draw or away win If you have future technology you can win 100% of your bets. We are only humans and have our limits in predictions. For example my friend hits right 80% of his prediction on pinnacle live odds(big leagues) with average odd 2,00. He have this stats after 300-400 bets(after 3 years-he works on this only few weeks per year on this) But me and him don't believe that this is possible in a long run. So he prefer to stick to arbing, bonuses and vale betting on soft bookies. But we may be wrong, he may be truly so good. One of his positiv indicator is that when he find his pick few days before the offical start of the match, the odd drops at pinnacle till the start. So if he would bet this on early odds he would beat pinnacle. But he is realistic and make money whit things that he know works 100% Fairpunter if I have technology from aliens that predict winners and odd movements 100% right and if I am very selective I could bet on opening odds that are lower than pinnacle closing odds and I would still make profit with my betting. But we have to be realistic and make money without super technology. But guys that talk here about standard value betting  are not saying nothing stupid. You may always know something more than as and kip it  for your self. If RoosterDonky had one bad mouth with value betting this doesn't mean that he lose money long term. In one year of value betting I also had one negative mouth. and it will still hapened to me. But I will be happy at the end of the year. My friend that is value betting on pinnacle never had a losing week, but he prefer value betting that RoosterDonky do.

I believe that if you get this words "on september crying boy" for yourself you are a "on september crying boy" too.
and you can make a group "on september crying boySSS".  ;) :D
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Alfa1234
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« Reply #77 on: January 09, 2017, 10:50:50 AM »

i dont get it soft could be getting 100k+bets  while pinnacle min bet is 80 and wont raise over 350. So there cannot be large volume in pinnacle
example 1

1.85 1.85 soft i hit 4k bet soft wont change because they follow pinnacle crappy stake 1.9 1.9 max 80 bet
I hit pinnacle 4k odds change smth 1.75 2.3 then soft starts to "live"

Your soft will not change their policy because 1 player hits a very soft line for 4k in a crappy market.  If anything, they will quickly go under by allowing such action and I can guarantee you they won't allow 4k bets on a small market for long as this is simply a terrible business model that is not sustainable long term.
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #78 on: January 09, 2017, 04:01:49 PM »

Actually with your failed picks thread...
You showed us what crying was.

http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,3768.105.html#msg53376

"It was very bad day for me"
:(
" you "Market makers" amaze me"
:(
"I honestly say that new season begins bad to me"
:(
"gambling is very stressful"
:(
" this means Dmitri Payet f..ked my other 80% profit for that match."
:(

Here's your new theme song....



« Last Edit: January 09, 2017, 04:19:20 PM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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sinigo
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« Reply #79 on: January 09, 2017, 05:13:00 PM »

Guys we have this forum to be more productive. It is no sense to insult each other, we are in the same boat
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fairpunter
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« Reply #80 on: January 09, 2017, 05:50:14 PM »

This guy is really cancer and I don`t know how did I get this cancer on last year
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Mark_Waugh
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« Reply #81 on: January 09, 2017, 08:48:48 PM »

Value betting is a gamble... completely defeats the purpose of arbing which is guaranteed profit.
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middler
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« Reply #82 on: January 09, 2017, 09:35:39 PM »

Gambling is a very big word.

The way you are saying it, means that any form of investment with uncertainty is a gamble and therefore almost any decision you take in life is a gamble.

Would placing a bet for djokovic against some itf guy at odds 2,0 be a gamble?

There is uncertainty of course, but do you think that there is a reason why yo would get at most 1,01 (if you even get the chance to place a bet)?

Of course it is an example where difference is very big, but that doesn't mean that on closer events there aren't overpaid results.

You need to understand that value betting is not about always picking the winner, but picking the overpaid odds.

Why do you think that it is possible to place an arb? Do you think that you have 2 fair and accurate odds that will create guaranteed profit for you?
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Mark_Waugh
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« Reply #83 on: January 10, 2017, 07:13:30 AM »

Gambling is a very big word.

The way you are saying it, means that any form of investment with uncertainty is a gamble and therefore almost any decision you take in life is a gamble.

Would placing a bet for djokovic against some itf guy at odds 2,0 be a gamble?

There is uncertainty of course, but do you think that there is a reason why yo would get at most 1,01 (if you even get the chance to place a bet)?

Of course it is an example where difference is very big, but that doesn't mean that on closer events there aren't overpaid results.

You need to understand that value betting is not about always picking the winner, but picking the overpaid odds.

Why do you think that it is possible to place an arb? Do you think that you have 2 fair and accurate odds that will create guaranteed profit for you?

Well explained sir.
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #84 on: January 10, 2017, 08:26:21 AM »

Guys we have this forum to be more productive. It is no sense to insult each other, we are in the same boat

Fairpunter mentioned crying so I thought he'd be interested in crying posts...made by himself.
Sucks when you accuse others of something when you have a history of that activity that is 5X worse than what you are accusing the other person of.
Oh and the humanity to be called out on it.
Sad day for Fairpunter indeed.
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GrayGreen
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« Reply #85 on: January 10, 2017, 08:36:12 AM »

Gambling is a very big word.

The way you are saying it, means that any form of investment with uncertainty is a gamble and therefore almost any decision you take in life is a gamble.

Would placing a bet for djokovic against some itf guy at odds 2,0 be a gamble?

There is uncertainty of course, but do you think that there is a reason why yo would get at most 1,01 (if you even get the chance to place a bet)?

Of course it is an example where difference is very big, but that doesn't mean that on closer events there aren't overpaid results.

You need to understand that value betting is not about always picking the winner, but picking the overpaid odds.

Why do you think that it is possible to place an arb? Do you think that you have 2 fair and accurate odds that will create guaranteed profit for you?

Well explained sir.

Couldn't explain it better even myself. I especially agree with

"You need to understand that value betting is not about always picking the winner, but picking the overpaid odds."

It is exactly as you say,

GG
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fairpunter
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« Reply #86 on: January 10, 2017, 08:53:44 AM »

Sad day for Fairpunter indeed.
Ok RoosterDonky, you win. you are experienced value bettor, you are professional of your own work. I delete my signature too.
and please don't comment on my posts.
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