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Multiple Valubet

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plepi
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« on: January 11, 2017, 09:35:31 PM »

Hello everyone,

In my country a local bookie offers better odds than betfair(5% better) for the favorite on the 1-X-2 for multiples of 3 or more selections(not for single bets). My question is: are these multiples consider valuebets?
And is enough to consider every multiple with odds better than betfair a valuebet or I have to see other things for ex. the form of the team, the statistics..etc
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dealer wins
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« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 10:40:03 PM »

If they are better than betfair just lay it on betfair?
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plepi
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« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 10:53:45 PM »

I have done that for 5 years and most of the time i had to deposit on betfair. The bookie lost from the arbers and now all big amounts placed on multiples with matches that will be played on different time(that can be layed one by one on betfair) are sent to an operator who offers lower odds. For Multiples with matches that will be played at the same time they offer high odds. Thats why I am thinking of Valuebetting
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De Graaf
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2017, 01:13:25 AM »

They are valuebets, you'd be multiplying your +EV since you have to combo.
Variance will be hell, most likely to the point that it may be detrimental to your approach if you don't keep your discipline.
Good luck in your endeavor.
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plepi
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2017, 08:57:29 AM »

Thanks for your advice De Graaf. I am thinking to start for test model with very small stakes and with multiples of 3 matches with odds at 1.4-1.7 each match and i think the variance will be accetable in this way.
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KAOS
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« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2017, 09:49:46 AM »

If you can get 5% better than Betfair and then multiply it you are in a great position and so long as you have a feel for your risk of ruin you can make a lot of money and keep growing.  If you find 3 selections you can also take 3 x singles, 3 x doubles and 1 x treble.
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plepi
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« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2017, 10:13:40 AM »

Thank you for the suggestion Kaos. 5 % is the avergage, In some cases odds are better than 5 %. For example I had found odds 2 While in bettfair it was 1.76 but this difference is rare. I will try also the system
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sinigo
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2017, 01:49:28 PM »

Thru odd let say is 2,00 (so once you will lose and once you will win)
1)You find odds 2,1 on soft bookie
Play singles and bet 100€. After 4 single bets: you lose 2 bets and win 2 bets. So after 4 bets you earn: 110€+110€-100€-100€=20€. So your total profit is 20€ and you bet 400€. So your advantage  is 20/400=5%.
2) You find odds 2,1 on soft bookie and you will bet doubles. (thru odd is still 2,00 on sigle bet)
Thru odd for double is 2,00x2,00=4,00 (this mean that you will win one out of 4)
400*3-100-100-100=0€ profit if you have thru odds
But you get odd 2,1. So 2,1x2,1=4,41
Example
You win first bet 100x(4,41-1)=341€ and you lose your next 3 bets
So you get total profit 341€-100€-100€-100€=41€
So you make more with multiple bets. Your advantage on multiple is 41/400=10,25%(so if you bet 10k€ in one mouth you will make 1k€ per mounth of profit)
You dont need to try anythink, only gamler are trying. The mathematic is on your side

Conclusion: You will sufer longer losing strikes with multiple bets, but it is obvios that multiplebets have more advantage
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plepi
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2017, 02:02:49 PM »

Thanks Sinigo for the calculations. Please can you suggest me what percentage of my bankroll is proper to use if I bet on multiples on average odd 4 to minimize the risk.
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sinigo
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2017, 02:06:48 PM »

I was betting on horses average odd 6,5, 0,5% of my bankrool
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svevlad
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2017, 03:31:54 PM »

they must take 3 event no 2

it is very hard to win multy bet with 3 matches

for me this is pure gambling
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plepi
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2017, 03:35:33 PM »

Yes they want 3 event, but i thought to choose matches with odd 1.4-1.7 and the propability of win with be accetable
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Thordin
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« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2017, 03:51:35 PM »

i suggest you take all the value odds you find even if odds are 5.
You can calculate your stake as a 'to win' amount, so if the multibet has high odds, bet less.
So if you would bet €100 on a multiple 1.70 x 1.70 x 1.70 you win around 500.
So when you find value odds 5.00 , 4.00, 3.80 and got total odds 76, you still make the bet with a stake like €6.5
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Thordin
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« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2017, 03:53:42 PM »

on a sidenote, Mike from bonus-bagging has a decent service for value-multibets, i made some money from WH but not enough to worth my time
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sinigo
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« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2017, 04:40:31 PM »

What Thordin, wrote is very nice and secure way. But the most profitable is to bet more on odds that provide you more advantage. And normally bigger odds deliver bigger advantage over the bookmaker. No one here can tell you what is the perfect bankroll, bat everyone would tell you if you have unlimited bankroll, take max bet.Also the most conservative/safe value bettor can go to bankrupt, if he have a bad  seria. My chance to bankrupt with my  bankroll that i use now is   0,5^200.
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