Multiple Valubet

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plepi
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plepi

Multiple Valubet
« on: January 11, 2017, 09:35:31 PM »

Hello everyone,

In my country a local bookie offers better odds than betfair(5% better) for the favorite on the 1-X-2 for multiples of 3 or more selections(not for single bets). My question is: are these multiples consider valuebets?
And is enough to consider every multiple with odds better than betfair a valuebet or I have to see other things for ex. the form of the team, the statistics..etc
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 10:40:03 PM »

If they are better than betfair just lay it on betfair?
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plepi
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plepi

Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 10:53:45 PM »

I have done that for 5 years and most of the time i had to deposit on betfair. The bookie lost from the arbers and now all big amounts placed on multiples with matches that will be played on different time(that can be layed one by one on betfair) are sent to an operator who offers lower odds. For Multiples with matches that will be played at the same time they offer high odds. Thats why I am thinking of Valuebetting
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De Graaf
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De Graaf

Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2017, 01:13:25 AM »

They are valuebets, you'd be multiplying your +EV since you have to combo.
Variance will be hell, most likely to the point that it may be detrimental to your approach if you don't keep your discipline.
Good luck in your endeavor.
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plepi
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Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2017, 08:57:29 AM »

Thanks for your advice De Graaf. I am thinking to start for test model with very small stakes and with multiples of 3 matches with odds at 1.4-1.7 each match and i think the variance will be accetable in this way.
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KAOS
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Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2017, 09:49:46 AM »

If you can get 5% better than Betfair and then multiply it you are in a great position and so long as you have a feel for your risk of ruin you can make a lot of money and keep growing.  If you find 3 selections you can also take 3 x singles, 3 x doubles and 1 x treble.
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plepi
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plepi

Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2017, 10:13:40 AM »

Thank you for the suggestion Kaos. 5 % is the avergage, In some cases odds are better than 5 %. For example I had found odds 2 While in bettfair it was 1.76 but this difference is rare. I will try also the system
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plepi
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plepi

Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2017, 02:02:49 PM »

Thanks Sinigo for the calculations. Please can you suggest me what percentage of my bankroll is proper to use if I bet on multiples on average odd 4 to minimize the risk.
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svevlad
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svevlad

Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2017, 03:31:54 PM »

they must take 3 event no 2

it is very hard to win multy bet with 3 matches

for me this is pure gambling
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plepi
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plepi

Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2017, 03:35:33 PM »

Yes they want 3 event, but i thought to choose matches with odd 1.4-1.7 and the propability of win with be accetable
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Thordin
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Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2017, 03:51:35 PM »

i suggest you take all the value odds you find even if odds are 5.
You can calculate your stake as a 'to win' amount, so if the multibet has high odds, bet less.
So if you would bet €100 on a multiple 1.70 x 1.70 x 1.70 you win around 500.
So when you find value odds 5.00 , 4.00, 3.80 and got total odds 76, you still make the bet with a stake like €6.5
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Thordin
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Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2017, 03:53:42 PM »

on a sidenote, Mike from bonus-bagging has a decent service for value-multibets, i made some money from WH but not enough to worth my time
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plepi
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Re: Multiple Valubet
« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2017, 05:02:42 PM »

thank you guys for your suggestion.

I understand that the risk of bankrupt depends from the percentage of the stakes and from the average odds.
Your propability of bunkrupt Sinigo (1/400 if I understand righ) is acceptable compared with the expected return from valuebetting. i am thinking to use the samee stakes(0,5%) and odds of multiples 4-6
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 05:04:17 PM by plepi » Logged
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